Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox MLB Picks & Predictions 9/28/2019

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Fenway Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: John Means vs. Jhoulys Chacin

Jonathan Villar and the Baltimore Orioles (52-107, 5th in AL East) head to Fenway Park on Saturday where they'll meet the Boston Red Sox (83-76, 3rd in AL East). The Orioles open this game at +165 while the Red Sox are priced at -175. The total is set at 10.5.

The Orioles have been a less than ideal option for MLB wagerers, having gone 52-107-0 SU. The Red Sox cover 52.2% of the time, going 83-76-0 straight up.

Valuable Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends

The Orioles have been a good Over bet for over/under MLB bettors, having gone 79-69-11.

Baltimore is covering 34.6% of the time on the road, having gone 27-51-0 straight up.

Important Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

Boston is covering 48.7% of the time at Fenway Park, going 37-39-0 SU.

The Red Sox have been an excellent Over bet for over/under MLB bettors, having gone 89-65-5.

Related: Gambling 101 - MLB Betting Tips - Tony George of Doc's Sports

Key Baltimore Orioles Injuries

9/26/2019 Mason Williams CF Knee Probable for Sep 27
9/19/2019 Hunter Harvey RP Rest Out for the season
7/1/2019 Josh Rogers RP Elbow Out for the season
6/11/2019 Alex Cobb SP Hip Out for the season

Key Boston Red Sox Injuries

9/25/2019 Christian Vazquez C Hamstring Probable for Sep 27
9/25/2019 Mookie Betts RF Foot Probable for Sep 27
9/23/2019 Darwinzon Hernandez RP Rest Out for the season
9/19/2019 Michael Chavis 1B Oblique Out for the season
9/18/2019 David Price SP Wrist Out for the season
9/18/2019 Steven Wright RP Elbow Out for the season
9/1/2019 Chris Sale SP Elbow Out for the season
8/11/2019 Steve Pearce 1B Knee Out for the season
8/7/2019 Dustin Pedroia 2B Knee Out for the season
11/1/2019 Austin Maddox RP Shoulder Out for the season

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Orioles have a 52-107 overall record this season. Starting pitcher John Means has a 11-11 record with an earned run average of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.13 this season. He has 116 strikeouts over his 150 innings pitched and he's given up 133 hits. He's allowed 8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.32. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.83 and they have given up 682 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .267 against the bullpen and they've struck out 616 hitters and walked 290 batters. As a team, Baltimore allows 9.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.8 batters per nine innings. They are 30th in the league in team earned run average at 5.64. The Orioles pitchers collectively have given up 1,517 base hits and 888 earned runs. They have allowed 303 home runs this season, ranking them 1st in the league. Baltimore as a pitching staff has walked 552 batters and struck out 1,222. They have walked 3.5 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.8 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.46 and their FIP as a unit is 5.61.

Related: Get MLB tips & picks on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Baltimore is hitting .247, good for 18th in the league. The Orioles hold a .414 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .310, which is good for 24th in baseball. They rank 15th in MLB with 8.5 hits per game. Jonathan Villar is hitting .275 with an on-base percentage of .340. He has 173 hits this season in 629 at bats with 71 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .456 and an OPS+ of 110. Trey Mancini is hitting .291 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .362. He has totaled 172 hits and he has driven in 94 men in 591 at bats. His OPS+ is 134 while his slugging percentage is at .535. The Orioles have 1,355 hits, including 246 doubles and 208 home runs. Baltimore has walked 447 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,406 times as a unit. They have left 1,041 men on base and have a team OPS of .724. They score 4.48 runs per contest and have scored a total of 712 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Boston has a 83-76 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 5.81, Jhoulys Chacin has a 3-11 record and a 1.54 WHIP. He has 98 strikeouts over the 100.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 110 hits. He's allowing 9.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.61. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.40 and they have given up 587 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .235 against the Red Sox bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 761 batters and walked 316 opposing hitters. As a team, Boston allows 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 10 batters per nine innings. They are 19th in the league in team earned run average at 4.69. The Red Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,399 base knocks and 752 earned runs this season. They have given up 210 home runs this year, which ranks 20th in Major League Baseball. Boston as a staff has walked 590 hitters and struck out 1,604 batters. They give up a walk 3.7 times per 9 innings while they strike out 10 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.38 while their FIP as a staff is 4.28.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .269, good for 3rd in the league. The Red Sox hold a .467 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .340, which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.6 hits per contest. Rafael Devers comes into this matchup batting .310 with an OBP of .361. He has 196 hits this year along with 115 RBI in 633 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .556 with an OPS+ of 133. J.D. Martinez is hitting .305 this season and he has an OBP of .383. He has collected 173 hits in 567 at bats while driving in 104 runs. He has an OPS+ of 140 and a slugging percentage of .556. The Red Sox as a unit have 1,527 base hits, including 341 doubles and 243 homers. Boston has walked 581 times this year and they have struck out on 1,356 occasions. They have had 1,148 men left on base and have an OPS of .807. They have scored 5.6 runs per game and totaled 891 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Orioles/Red Sox MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Orioles (+165)

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