Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres MLB Picks & Predictions 7/29/2019
Monday, July 29, 2019
Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.
Probable Pitchers: Gabriel Ynoa vs. Chris Paddack
Manny Machado and the San Diego Padres (49-55, 4th in NL West) play the Baltimore Orioles (35-69, 5th in AL East) at Petco Park on Monday, July 29, 2019. The Orioles open this matchup at +130 while the Padres are priced at -140. The O/U has been set at 9.5.
The Orioles have been excellent for Vegas oddsmakers, having gone 35-69-0 SU. The Padres cover 47.1% of the time, going 49-55-0 straight up. The Padres have been a less than ideal play for MLB bettors as the favorite, going 25-28-0 SU. Baltimore has gone 33-67-0 straight up as an underdog, so they cover 33.0% of the time.
Valuable Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Orioles have been a less than ideal Under pick for over/under baseball bettors, having gone 51-45-8.
The Orioles cover 37.7% of the time as the road team, having gone 20-33-0 straight up.
Important San Diego Padres Betting Trends
San Diego is covering 46.2% of the time at Petco Park, going 24-28-0 SU.
The Padres have been a pretty good Under pick for over/under baseball bettors, having gone 46-50-8.
Key Baltimore Orioles Injuries
7/27/2019 Dwight Smith LF Calf Probable for Jul 28
7/27/2019 Mark Trumbo LF Knee Expected to be out until at least Aug 16
7/26/2019 John Means SP Biceps Expected to be out until at least Aug 4
7/1/2019 Josh Rogers RP Elbow Out for the season
6/11/2019 Alex Cobb SP Hip Out for the season
Key San Diego Padres Injuries
7/27/2019 Franmil Reyes RF Undisclosed Probable for Jul 28
7/25/2019 Brett Kennedy SP Lat Expected to be out until at least Aug 15
7/24/2019 Jacob Nix SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 13
7/21/2019 Miguel Diaz RP Knee Expected to be out until at least Aug 30
7/21/2019 Adam Warren RP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Aug 7
7/20/2019 Jose Castillo RP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Aug 2
7/4/2019 Franchy Cordero CF Quadriceps Expected to be out until at least Sep 1
7/2/2019 Garrett Richards SP Elbow Out for the season
6/28/2019 Aaron Loup RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 26
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Orioles have a 35-69 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Gabriel Ynoa has a 1-6 record with an earned run average of 5.75 and a WHIP of 1.46 this season. He has 41 strikeouts over his 67.1 innings pitched and he's given up 77 hits. He's allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.54. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.97 and they have given up 445 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .266 against the bullpen and they've struck out 407 hitters and walked 200 batters. As a team, Baltimore allows 9.4 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.8 batters per nine innings. They are 30th in the league in team earned run average at 5.53. The Orioles pitchers collectively have given up 969 base hits and 568 earned runs. They have allowed 197 home runs this season, ranking them 1st in the league. Baltimore as a pitching staff has walked 375 batters and struck out 803. They have walked 3.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.8 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.46 and their FIP as a unit is 5.64.
As a team Baltimore is hitting .245, good for 21st in the league. The Orioles hold a .410 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .305, which is good for 26th in baseball. They rank 18th in MLB with 8.5 hits per game. Trey Mancini is hitting .280 with an on-base percentage of .339. He has 108 hits this season in 386 at bats with 51 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .534 and an OPS+ of 128. Jonathan Villar is hitting .257 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .322. He has totaled 104 hits and he has driven in 45 men in 405 at bats. His OPS+ is 95 while his slugging percentage is at .415. The Orioles have 879 hits, including 157 doubles and 134 home runs. Baltimore has walked 277 times so far this season and they have struck out 955 times as a unit. They have left 671 men on base and have a team OPS of .715. They score 4.39 runs per contest and have scored a total of 457 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
San Diego has a 49-55 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 2.84, Chris Paddack has a 6-5 record and a 0.90 WHIP. He has 99 strikeouts over the 95 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 64 hits. He's allowing 6.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.01. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.52 and they have given up 375 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .245 against the Padres bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 432 batters and walked 126 opposing hitters. As a team, San Diego allows 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings. They are 16th in the league in team earned run average at 4.49. The Padres pitchers as a team have surrendered 895 base knocks and 461 earned runs this season. They have given up 142 home runs this year, which ranks 15th in Major League Baseball. San Diego as a staff has walked 280 hitters and struck out 917 batters. They give up a walk 2.7 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.27 while their FIP as a staff is 4.29.
As a team, they are batting .243, good for 26th in the league. The Padres hold a .426 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .309, which is good for 24th in baseball. They rank 26th in MLB with 8.1 hits per contest. Manny Machado comes into this matchup batting .273 with an OBP of .345. He has 106 hits this year along with 66 RBI in 388 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .505 with an OPS+ of 124. Eric Hosmer is hitting .281 this season and he has an OBP of .330. He has collected 115 hits in 409 at bats while driving in 64 runs. He has an OPS+ of 102 and a slugging percentage of .430. The Padres as a unit have 847 base hits, including 148 doubles and 155 homers. San Diego has walked 314 times this year and they have struck out on 1,007 occasions. They have had 642 men left on base and have an OPS of .736. They have scored 4.37 runs per game and totaled 454 runs this season.
Who will win tonight's Orioles/Padres MLB game against the spread?
Tony's Pick: Take the Orioles +130
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