Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies Expert MLB Picks 9/15/2019

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Citizens Bank Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Rick Porcello vs. Jason Vargas

Citizens Bank Park is the venue where Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies (76-70, 3rd in NL East) will play the Boston Red Sox (77-70, 3rd in AL East) on Sunday. The Phillies open this game at +105 while the Red Sox are coming in at -115. The over/under opens at 11.

The Red Sox have been a pretty good option for baseball wagerers, having gone 77-70-0 SU. The Phillies cover 52.0% of the time, going 76-70-0 straight up.

Valuable Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

The Red Sox have been a very good Over pick for over/under baseball wagerers, having gone 80-63-4.

The Red Sox cover 56.9% of the time as a visitor, having gone 41-31-0 straight up.

Important Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends

Philadelphia covers 56.6% of the time at Citizens Bank Park, going 43-33-0 SU.

The Phillies have been a good Over pick for over/under baseball wagerers, having gone 68-74-4.

Related: Gambling 101 - MLB Betting Tips - Tony George of Doc's Sports

Key Boston Red Sox Injuries

9/10/2019 David Price SP Wrist Expected to be out until at least Sep 19
9/10/2019 Heath Hembree RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 14
9/5/2019 Michael Chavis 1B Oblique Out for the season
9/1/2019 Steven Wright RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 15
9/1/2019 Chris Sale SP Elbow Out for the season
8/11/2019 Steve Pearce 1B Knee Out for the season
8/7/2019 Dustin Pedroia 2B Knee Out for the season
11/1/2019 Austin Maddox RP Shoulder Out for the season

Key Philadelphia Phillies Injuries

9/12/2019 Edubray Ramos RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Sep 14
9/11/2019 Corey Dickerson LF Foot Probable for Sep 14
9/10/2019 Roman Quinn CF Groin Expected to be out until at least Sep 17
9/10/2019 Seranthony Dominguez RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 27
9/10/2019 Juan Nicasio RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Sep 17
9/4/2019 Victor Arano RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 17
9/1/2019 Jerad Eickhoff SP Finger Out for the season
8/31/2019 Adam Morgan RP Elbow Out for the season
8/31/2019 Pat Neshek RP Hamstring Out for the season
8/20/2019 Jake Arrieta SP Elbow Out for the season
8/17/2019 David Robertson RP Elbow Out for the season
7/23/2019 Tommy Hunter RP Forearm Out for the season
6/24/2019 Andrew McCutchen LF Knee Out for the season

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Red Sox have a 77-70 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Rick Porcello has a 12-12 record with an earned run average of 5.83 and a WHIP of 1.45 this season. He has 123 strikeouts over his 157.1 innings pitched and he's given up 184 hits. He's allowed 10.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.04. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.34 and they have given up 532 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .234 against the bullpen and they've struck out 689 hitters and walked 283 batters. As a team, Boston allows 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings. They are 19th in the league in team earned run average at 4.66. The Red Sox pitchers collectively have given up 1,287 base hits and 689 earned runs. They have allowed 195 home runs this season, ranking them 20th in the league. Boston as a pitching staff has walked 540 batters and struck out 1,458. They have walked 3.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.37 and their FIP as a unit is 4.30.

Related: Get MLB predictions on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Boston is hitting .271, good for 2nd in the league. The Red Sox hold a .472 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .341, which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.6 hits per game. Rafael Devers is hitting .314 with an on-base percentage of .364. He has 183 hits this season in 583 at bats with 107 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .563 and an OPS+ of 134. Mookie Betts is hitting .293 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .391. He has totaled 168 hits and he has driven in 78 men in 573 at bats. His OPS+ is 134 while his slugging percentage is at .527. The Red Sox have 1,414 hits, including 324 doubles and 226 home runs. Boston has walked 533 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,232 times as a unit. They have left 1,053 men on base and have a team OPS of .814. They score 5.6 runs per contest and have scored a total of 823 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Philadelphia has a 76-70 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.31, Jason Vargas has a 6-7 record and a 1.34 WHIP. He has 107 strikeouts over the 135.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 127 hits. He's allowing 8.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.66. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.55 and they have given up 527 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .261 against the Phillies bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 512 batters and walked 211 opposing hitters. As a team, Philadelphia allows 9.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings. They are 16th in the league in team earned run average at 4.56. The Phillies pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,324 base knocks and 664 earned runs this season. They have given up 235 home runs this year, which ranks 5th in Major League Baseball. Philadelphia as a staff has walked 491 hitters and struck out 1,238 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.5 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.38 while their FIP as a staff is 4.92.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .248, good for 18th in the league. The Phillies hold a .431 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .324, which is good for 18th in baseball. They rank 15th in MLB with 8.5 hits per contest. Bryce Harper comes into this matchup batting .253 with an OBP of .372. He has 131 hits this year along with 102 RBI in 517 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .495 with an OPS+ of 122. Rhys Hoskins is hitting .236 this season and he has an OBP of .374. He has collected 122 hits in 517 at bats while driving in 80 runs. He has an OPS+ of 118 and a slugging percentage of .474. The Phillies as a unit have 1,246 base hits, including 284 doubles and 195 homers. Philadelphia has walked 523 times this year and they have struck out on 1,300 occasions. They have had 1,029 men left on base and have an OPS of .754. They have scored 4.9 runs per game and totaled 715 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Red Sox/Phillies MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Phillies (+105)

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