» MLB Picks » Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays MLB Picks & Predictions 7/4/2019

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays MLB Picks & Predictions 7/4/2019

by Tony Sink - 7/3/2019

Thursday, July 4, 2019

Rogers Centre

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Rick Porcello vs. Marcus Stroman

Rogers Centre is the site where Randal Grichuk and the Toronto Blue Jays (32-54, 4th in AL East) will take on the Boston Red Sox (45-40, 3rd in AL East) on Thursday. The Blue Jays open this matchup at +117 while the Red Sox are coming in at -127. The O/U has been set at 10.

The Red Sox have been good for MLB wagerers, having gone 45-40-0 SU. The Blue Jays cover 37.2% of the time, going 32-54-0 straight up. The Red Sox have been terrible for Las Vegas oddsmakers as favorites, going 39-31-0 SU. The Blue Jays cover 33.3% of the time as the underdog, having gone 21-42-0 straight up.

Valuable Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

The Red Sox have been a rough Under choice for over/under baseball wagerers, having gone 48-34-3.

Boston covers 58.1% of the time as a visitor, having gone 25-18-0 straight up.

Important Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends

Toronto covers 37.2% of the time at Rogers Centre, going 16-27-0 SU.

The Blue Jays have been a hot and cold Under choice for over/under baseball wagerers, having gone 44-39-3.

Key Boston Red Sox Injuries

7/3/2019 Heath Hembree RP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Jul 5
7/2/2019 Steve Pearce 1B Back Expected to be out until at least Aug 1
7/2/2019 Tyler Thornburg RP Hip Expected to be out until at least Jul 5
6/29/2019 Brian Johnson RP Infection Expected to be out until at least Jul 30
6/28/2019 Blake Swihart C Oblique Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/25/2019 Nathan Eovaldi SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 15
6/8/2019 Mitch Moreland 1B Quadriceps Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
5/28/2019 Dustin Pedroia 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Sep 1
11/1/2019 Austin Maddox RP Shoulder Out for the season

Key Toronto Blue Jays Injuries

7/2/2019 Teoscar Hernandez LF Shoulder Probable for Jul 3
6/29/2019 Devon Travis 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Jul 29
6/29/2019 Marcus Stroman SP Pectoral Expected to be out until at least Jul 4
6/29/2019 Clay Buchholz SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 29
6/29/2019 Edwin Jackson SP Back Expected to be out until at least Jul 19
6/28/2019 Jacob Waguespack RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 3
6/26/2019 Ryan Borucki RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 20
6/17/2019 Elvis Luciano RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 13
6/13/2019 Ryan Tepera RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 10
6/4/2019 Dalton Pompey CF Concussion Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
5/15/2019 Matt Shoemaker SP Knee Out for the season

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Red Sox have a 45-40 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Rick Porcello has a 5-7 record with an earned run average of 5.07 and a WHIP of 1.40 this season. He has 76 strikeouts over his 94 innings pitched and he's given up 102 hits. He's allowed 9.8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.41. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.44 and they have given up 304 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .238 against the bullpen and they've struck out 396 hitters and walked 151 batters. As a team, Boston allows 8.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings. They are 15th in the league in team earned run average at 4.54. The Red Sox pitchers collectively have given up 735 base hits and 390 earned runs. They have allowed 106 home runs this season, ranking them 21st in the league. Boston as a pitching staff has walked 289 batters and struck out 868. They have walked 3.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 10.1 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.33 and their FIP as a unit is 4.03.

Hitting Statistics

As a team Boston is hitting .271, good for 1st in the league. The Red Sox hold a .459 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .345, which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.6 hits per game. Rafael Devers is hitting .329 with an on-base percentage of .378. He has 107 hits this season in 325 at bats with 56 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .548 and an OPS+ of 137. J.D. Martinez is hitting .297 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .372. He has totaled 89 hits and he has driven in 47 men in 300 at bats. His OPS+ is 134 while his slugging percentage is at .543. The Red Sox have 818 hits, including 173 doubles and 124 home runs. Boston has walked 329 times so far this season and they have struck out 715 times as a unit. They have left 629 men on base and have a team OPS of .805. They score 5.56 runs per contest and have scored a total of 473 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Toronto has a 32-54 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.18, Marcus Stroman has a 5-9 record and a 1.26 WHIP. He has 81 strikeouts over the 104.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 100 hits. He's allowing 8.6 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.82. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.35 and they have given up 331 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .244 against the Blue Jays bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 376 batters and walked 148 opposing hitters. As a team, Toronto allows 9.3 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.4 batters per nine innings. They are 25th in the league in team earned run average at 4.96. The Blue Jays pitchers as a team have surrendered 788 base knocks and 419 earned runs this season. They have given up 126 home runs this year, which ranks 6th in Major League Baseball. Toronto as a staff has walked 325 hitters and struck out 709 batters. They give up a walk 3.8 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.4 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.46 while their FIP as a staff is 4.91.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .232, good for 28th in the league. The Blue Jays hold a .407 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .300, which is good for 27th in baseball. They rank 28th in MLB with 7.8 hits per contest. Randal Grichuk comes into this matchup batting .236 with an OBP of .294. He has 76 hits this year along with 38 RBI in 322 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .422 with an OPS+ of 92. Freddy Galvis is hitting .264 this season and he has an OBP of .302. He has collected 82 hits in 311 at bats while driving in 41 runs. He has an OPS+ of 101 and a slugging percentage of .450. The Blue Jays as a unit have 672 base hits, including 130 doubles and 120 homers. Toronto has walked 268 times this year and they have struck out on 787 occasions. They have had 521 men left on base and have an OPS of .707. They have scored 4.33 runs per game and totaled 372 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Red Sox/Blue Jays MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Red Sox -127

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Pick:	OVER 2.5 (-130)
Start:	May 10, 2025 @ 8:30 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Comp MLS Soccer Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Dallas/Salt Lake OVER 2.5 (-130) (8:30 p.m. EST, Saturday May 10) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time) These sides are nothing to write home about offensive, but their defenses are bad enough where both sides should have plenty of opportunities, and these sides have a strong history for high scoring matches. These are two of the worst defensive sides in MLS and combine to allow more than three goals per match. Dallas is coming off a road loss to San Diego where they conceded five goals. They were held scoreless in that one, but they should put an emphasis on scoring here and home pitch should help in that regard, and Salt Lake have given up five goals in their last three on the road. There’s a great chance Dallas could get two or more here. Salt Lake have scored in three straight on the road, amassing five goals in those matches. So there’s a good chance they will get at least one, and multiples is not out of the question. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the posted number, and three of those matches have seen four or more goals scored. We think we could see a result where both sides had multiple goals, but we are confident both will combine for three or more, and this price is more than fair for Saturday’s clash. Read More Read Less