» MLB Picks » Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Tips 7/4/2019

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Tips 7/4/2019

by Guy Bruhn - 7/3/2019

Thursday, July 4, 2019

PNC Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Jose Quintana vs. Jordan Lyles

PNC Park is the site where Josh Bell and the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-43, 4th in NL Central) will play the Chicago Cubs (45-41, 2nd in NL Central) on Thursday. The Cubs open this matchup at -115 while the Pirates are priced at +105. The O/U has been set at 9.5.

The Cubs have been a decent option for baseball bettors, having gone 45-41-0 SU. Pittsburgh is covering 48.8% of the time, going 41-43-0 straight up. The Cubs have been very good for baseball bettors as the favorite, going 36-22-0 SU. Pittsburgh has gone 27-33-0 straight up as an underdog, so they cover 45.0% of the time.

Valuable Chicago Cubs Betting Trends

The Cubs have been a less than ideal Under choice for over/under bettors, having gone 43-41-2.

The Cubs cover 39.0% of the time on the road, having gone 16-25-0 straight up.

Important Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends

Pittsburgh is covering 50.0% of the time at PNC Park, going 19-19-0 SU.

The Pirates have been a terrible Under choice for over/under bettors, having gone 48-33-3.

Key Chicago Cubs Injuries

7/1/2019 Xavier Cedeno RP Wrist Expected to be out until at least Jul 4
6/30/2019 Carl Edwards RP Back Expected to be out until at least Jul 6
6/28/2019 Cole Hamels SP Oblique Expected to be out until at least Jul 24
6/24/2019 Brandon Morrow RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/7/2019 Allen Webster RP Arm Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
2/19/2019 Kendall Graveman SP Elbow Out for the season

Key Pittsburgh Pirates Injuries

6/30/2019 Francisco Cervelli C Concussion Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/26/2019 Rookie Davis RP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Jul 19
6/25/2019 Nick Burdi RP Collarbone Out for the season
6/24/2019 Gregory Polanco RF Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/19/2019 Lonnie Chisenhall RF Calf Expected to be out until at least Jul 19
6/19/2019 Jameson Taillon SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 19
6/15/2019 Keone Kela RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/13/2019 Erik Gonzalez SS Collarbone Expected to be out until at least Jul 10
3/28/2019 Edgar Santana RP Elbow Out for the season
3/1/2019 Chad Kuhl SP Elbow Out for the season

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Cubs have a 45-41 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Jose Quintana has a 5-7 record with an earned run average of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.37 this season. He has 78 strikeouts over his 94 innings pitched and he's given up 100 hits. He's allowed 9.6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.14. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.26 and they have given up 257 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .240 against the bullpen and they've struck out 282 hitters and walked 142 batters. As a team, Chicago allows 8.4 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings. They are 8th in the league in team earned run average at 4.12. The Cubs pitchers collectively have given up 720 base hits and 351 earned runs. They have allowed 106 home runs this season, ranking them 22nd in the league. Chicago as a pitching staff has walked 301 batters and struck out 739. They have walked 3.5 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.33 and their FIP as a unit is 4.38.

Hitting Statistics

As a team Chicago is hitting .253, good for 15th in the league. The Cubs hold a .447 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .335, which is good for 8th in baseball. They rank 16th in MLB with 8.5 hits per game. Willson Contreras is hitting .284 with an on-base percentage of .378. He has 69 hits this season in 243 at bats with 49 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .556 and an OPS+ of 137. Javier Baez is hitting .285 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .322. He has totaled 96 hits and he has driven in 57 men in 337 at bats. His OPS+ is 119 while his slugging percentage is at .552. The Cubs have 732 hits, including 140 doubles and 132 home runs. Chicago has walked 329 times so far this season and they have struck out 774 times as a unit. They have left 583 men on base and have a team OPS of .782. They score 5.02 runs per contest and have scored a total of 432 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Pittsburgh has a 41-43 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.71, Jordan Lyles has a 5-4 record and a 1.22 WHIP. He has 71 strikeouts over the 70.1 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 60 hits. He's allowing 7.7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.82. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.86 and they have given up 317 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .251 against the Pirates bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 351 batters and walked 157 opposing hitters. As a team, Pittsburgh allows 9.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 9 batters per nine innings. They are 23rd in the league in team earned run average at 4.85. The Pirates pitchers as a team have surrendered 763 base knocks and 404 earned runs this season. They have given up 109 home runs this year, which ranks 19th in Major League Baseball. Pittsburgh as a staff has walked 307 hitters and struck out 745 batters. They give up a walk 3.7 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.43 while their FIP as a staff is 4.49.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .268, good for 5th in the league. The Pirates hold a .432 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .325, which is good for 15th in baseball. They rank 4th in MLB with 9.4 hits per contest. Josh Bell comes into this matchup batting .306 with an OBP of .380. He has 98 hits this year along with 78 RBI in 320 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .650 with an OPS+ of 164. Melky Cabrera is hitting .306 this season and he has an OBP of .339. He has collected 66 hits in 216 at bats while driving in 27 runs. He has an OPS+ of 101 and a slugging percentage of .431. The Pirates as a unit have 791 base hits, including 174 doubles and 91 homers. Pittsburgh has walked 228 times this year and they have struck out on 661 occasions. They have had 588 men left on base and have an OPS of .757. They have scored 4.75 runs per game and totaled 399 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Cubs/Pirates MLB game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Cubs -115

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Pick:	OVER 2.5 (-130)
Start:	May 10, 2025 @ 8:30 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Comp MLS Soccer Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Dallas/Salt Lake OVER 2.5 (-130) (8:30 p.m. EST, Saturday May 10) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time) These sides are nothing to write home about offensive, but their defenses are bad enough where both sides should have plenty of opportunities, and these sides have a strong history for high scoring matches. These are two of the worst defensive sides in MLS and combine to allow more than three goals per match. Dallas is coming off a road loss to San Diego where they conceded five goals. They were held scoreless in that one, but they should put an emphasis on scoring here and home pitch should help in that regard, and Salt Lake have given up five goals in their last three on the road. There’s a great chance Dallas could get two or more here. Salt Lake have scored in three straight on the road, amassing five goals in those matches. So there’s a good chance they will get at least one, and multiples is not out of the question. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the posted number, and three of those matches have seen four or more goals scored. We think we could see a result where both sides had multiple goals, but we are confident both will combine for three or more, and this price is more than fair for Saturday’s clash. Read More Read Less