» MLB Picks » Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Expert MLB Picks Against the Spread 7/28/2019

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Expert MLB Picks Against the Spread 7/28/2019

by Josh Schonwald - 7/27/2019

Sunday, July 28, 2019

T-Mobile Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Matthew Boyd vs. Tommy Milone

Omar Narvaez and the Seattle Mariners (44-63, 5th in AL West) play the Detroit Tigers (30-69, 5th in AL Central) at T-Mobile Park on Sunday, July 28, 2019. The Tigers open this matchup at +150 while the Mariners are coming in at -160. The total has been set at 9.5.

The Tigers have been an awful choice for MLB wagerers, having gone 30-69-0 SU. Seattle covers 41.1% of the time, going 44-63-0 straight up. The Mariners have been a great pick for baseball wagerers as favorites, going 17-12-0 SU. The Tigers are covering 27.4% of the time as an underdog, having gone 23-61-0 straight up.

Valuable Detroit Tigers Betting Trends

The Tigers have been a good Under play for O/U MLB wagerers, having gone 46-48-5.

Detroit covers 34.7% of the time as the away team, having gone 17-32-0 straight up.

Important Seattle Mariners Betting Trends

Seattle covers 42.9% of the time at T-Mobile Park, going 24-32-0 SU.

The Mariners have been a very good Over play for O/U MLB wagerers, having gone 66-37-4.

Key Detroit Tigers Injuries

7/24/2019 Grayson Greiner C Back Expected to be out until at least Aug 27
7/24/2019 Victor Alcantara RP Finger Expected to be out until at least Jul 31
7/24/2019 Josh Harrison 2B Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Aug 13
7/20/2019 Spencer Turnbull SP Back Expected to be out until at least Jul 28
7/13/2019 Tyson Ross SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 5
4/30/2019 Matt Moore SP Knee Out for the season
3/23/2019 Michael Fulmer SP Elbow Out for the season
10/25/2019 Artie Lewicki RP Elbow Out for the season

Key Seattle Mariners Injuries

7/27/2019 Austin Adams RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Aug 9
7/26/2019 Tim Lopes 2B Concussion Expected to be out until at least Aug 2
7/26/2019 Ryon Healy 3B Back Expected to be out until at least Aug 15
7/26/2019 Brandon Brennan RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Aug 2
7/25/2019 Domingo Santana LF Elbow Probable for Jul 27
7/24/2019 Hunter Strickland RP Lat Expected to be out until at least Jul 28
7/24/2019 Mitch Haniger RF Groin Expected to be out until at least Aug 20
7/23/2019 Dee Gordon 2B Quadriceps Expected to be out until at least Aug 13
7/20/2019 Connor Sadzeck RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 9
7/12/2019 Braden Bishop CF Chest Expected to be out until at least Aug 13
7/12/2019 Felix Hernandez SP Lat Expected to be out until at least Aug 14
7/8/2019 Dan Altavilla RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 1
6/23/2019 Chasen Bradford RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 2
4/28/2019 Arodys Vizcaino RP Shoulder Out for the season

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Tigers have a 30-69 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Matthew Boyd has a 6-8 record with an earned run average of 4.07 and a WHIP of 1.14 this season. He has 168 strikeouts over his 126 innings pitched and he's given up 117 hits. He's allowed 8.4 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.56. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.00 and they have given up 385 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .259 against the bullpen and they've struck out 335 hitters and walked 163 batters. As a team, Detroit allows 9.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.2 batters per nine innings. They are 27th in the league in team earned run average at 5.15. The Tigers pitchers collectively have given up 947 base hits and 509 earned runs. They have allowed 152 home runs this season, ranking them 9th in the league. Detroit as a pitching staff has walked 321 batters and struck out 808. They have walked 3.2 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.2 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.43 and their FIP as a unit is 4.84.

Hitting Statistics

As a team Detroit is hitting .232, good for 29th in the league. The Tigers hold a .381 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .290, which is good for 30th in baseball. They rank 29th in MLB with 7.9 hits per game. Miguel Cabrera is hitting .275 with an on-base percentage of .338. He has 90 hits this season in 327 at bats with 37 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .361 and an OPS+ of 86. Nicholas Castellanos is hitting .279 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .335. He has totaled 109 hits and he has driven in 37 men in 391 at bats. His OPS+ is 110 while his slugging percentage is at .471. The Tigers have 791 hits, including 188 doubles and 92 home runs. Detroit has walked 259 times so far this season and they have struck out 987 times as a unit. They have left 663 men on base and have a team OPS of .672. They score 3.56 runs per contest and have scored a total of 356 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Seattle has a 44-63 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.45, Tommy Milone has a 1-5 record and a 1.07 WHIP. He has 56 strikeouts over the 60.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 52 hits. He's allowing 7.7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.02. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.09 and they have given up 408 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .243 against the Mariners bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 416 batters and walked 204 opposing hitters. As a team, Seattle allows 9.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.8 batters per nine innings. They are 28th in the league in team earned run average at 5.25. The Mariners pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,008 base knocks and 553 earned runs this season. They have given up 184 home runs this year, which ranks 2nd in Major League Baseball. Seattle as a staff has walked 336 hitters and struck out 819 batters. They give up a walk 3.2 times per 9 innings while they strike out 7.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.42 while their FIP as a staff is 5.18.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .243, good for 24th in the league. The Mariners hold a .443 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .320, which is good for 19th in baseball. They rank 23rd in MLB with 8.3 hits per contest. Omar Narvaez comes into this matchup batting .290 with an OBP of .362. He has 86 hits this year along with 41 RBI in 297 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .478 with an OPS+ of 126. Mallex Smith is hitting .236 this season and he has an OBP of .307. He has collected 80 hits in 339 at bats while driving in 27 runs. He has an OPS+ of 81 and a slugging percentage of .360. The Mariners as a unit have 888 base hits, including 179 doubles and 173 homers. Seattle has walked 385 times this year and they have struck out on 1,031 occasions. They have had 721 men left on base and have an OPS of .763. They have scored 4.95 runs per game and totaled 530 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Tigers/Mariners MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Tigers +150

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Pick:	OVER 2.5 (-130)
Start:	May 10, 2025 @ 8:30 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Comp MLS Soccer Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Dallas/Salt Lake OVER 2.5 (-130) (8:30 p.m. EST, Saturday May 10) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time) These sides are nothing to write home about offensive, but their defenses are bad enough where both sides should have plenty of opportunities, and these sides have a strong history for high scoring matches. These are two of the worst defensive sides in MLS and combine to allow more than three goals per match. Dallas is coming off a road loss to San Diego where they conceded five goals. They were held scoreless in that one, but they should put an emphasis on scoring here and home pitch should help in that regard, and Salt Lake have given up five goals in their last three on the road. There’s a great chance Dallas could get two or more here. Salt Lake have scored in three straight on the road, amassing five goals in those matches. So there’s a good chance they will get at least one, and multiples is not out of the question. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the posted number, and three of those matches have seen four or more goals scored. We think we could see a result where both sides had multiple goals, but we are confident both will combine for three or more, and this price is more than fair for Saturday’s clash. Read More Read Less