Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Expert Game 4 Picks Against the Spread 10/8/2019

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Tropicana Field

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Justin Verlander vs. Diego Castillo

Alex Bregman and the Houston Astros are headed to Tropicana Field on Tuesday where they'll take on the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 of the ALDS. The Rays cut the series lead to 2-1 with a 10-3 win in Game 3. Charlie Morton pitched 5 innings, giving up only 1 earned run with 9 strikeouts and two walks. The offense had home runs by Kevin Kiermaier, Willy Adames, and Brandon Lowe as Zack Greinke had a start to forget. He finished only 3.2 innings of work, giving up 6 earned runs on 5 hits. The Rays open this game at +131 while the Astros are coming in at -145. The over/under opens at 7.5.

The Astros have been a very good play for bettors, having gone 109-55-0 SU. Tampa Bay is covering 58.8% of the time, going 97-68-0 straight up.

Valuable Houston Astros Betting Trends

The Astros have been a decent Over play for over/under wagerers, having gone 73-85-6.

The Astros cover 57.0% of the time on the road, having gone 45-34-0 straight up.

Important Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends

The Rays cover 59.3% of the time at Tropicana Field, going 48-33-0 SU.

The Rays have been a decent Over play for over/under wagerers, having gone 79-77-9.

Related: Gambling 101 - MLB Betting Tips - Tony George of Doc's Sports

Key Houston Astros Injuries

9/27/2019 Aaron Sanchez SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 1, 2020
9/17/2019 Collin McHugh RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
6/9/2019 Lance McCullers SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020

Key Tampa Bay Rays Injuries

10/5/2019 Eric Sogard 2B Foot Probable for Oct 7
9/11/2019 Hoby Milner RP Neck Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
9/5/2019 Jose Alvarado RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Nov 1
4/2/2019 Jose Mujica SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Mar 1, 2020

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Astros have a 107-55 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Justin Verlander has a 21-6 record with an earned run average of 2.58 and a WHIP of 0.80 this season. He has 300 strikeouts over his 223 innings pitched and he's given up 137 hits. He's allowed 5.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.27. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.75 and they have given up 470 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .224 against the bullpen and they've struck out 608 hitters and walked 197 batters. As a team, Houston allows 7.4 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.66. The Astros pitchers collectively have given up 1,205 base hits and 595 earned runs. They have allowed 230 home runs this season, ranking them 12th in the league. Houston as a pitching staff has walked 448 batters and struck out 1,671. They have walked 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 10.3 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.13 and their FIP as a unit is 3.98.

Related: Get MLB tips & picks on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Houston is hitting .274, good for 1st in the league. The Astros hold a .495 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .352, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 3rd in MLB with 9.5 hits per game. Alex Bregman is hitting .296 with an on-base percentage of .423. He has 164 hits this season in 554 at bats with 112 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .592 and an OPS+ of 162. Yuli Gurriel is hitting .298 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .343. He has totaled 168 hits and he has driven in 104 men in 564 at bats. His OPS+ is 126 while his slugging percentage is at .541. The Astros have 1,538 hits, including 323 doubles and 288 home runs. Houston has walked 645 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,166 times as a unit. They have left 1,168 men on base and have a team OPS of .848. They score 5.68 runs per contest and have scored a total of 920 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Tampa Bay has a 96-66 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.41, Diego Castillo has a 5-8 record and a 1.24 WHIP. He has 81 strikeouts over the 68.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 59 hits. He's allowing 7.7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.72. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.71 and they have given up 668 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .228 against the Rays bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 825 batters and walked 262 opposing hitters. As a team, Tampa Bay allows 7.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings. They are 2nd in the league in team earned run average at 3.65. The Rays pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,274 base knocks and 598 earned runs this season. They have given up 181 home runs this year, which ranks 30th in Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay as a staff has walked 453 hitters and struck out 1,621 batters. They give up a walk 2.8 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.17 while their FIP as a staff is 3.65.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .254, good for 12th in the league. The Rays hold a .431 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .325, which is good for 13th in baseball. They rank 11th in MLB with 8.8 hits per contest. Austin Meadows comes into this matchup batting .291 with an OBP of .364. He has 154 hits this year along with 89 RBI in 530 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .558 with an OPS+ of 143. Tommy Pham is hitting .273 this season and he has an OBP of .369. He has collected 155 hits in 567 at bats while driving in 68 runs. He has an OPS+ of 119 and a slugging percentage of .450. The Rays as a unit have 1,427 base hits, including 291 doubles and 217 homers. Tampa Bay has walked 542 times this year and they have struck out on 1,493 occasions. They have had 1,130 men left on base and have an OPS of .757. They have scored 4.75 runs per game and totaled 769 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Astros/Rays MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Astros (-145)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Read more articles by Josh Schonwald