Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins Expert MLB Picks Against the Spread 9/7/2019

Saturday, September 7, 2019

Marlins Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Danny Duffy vs. Caleb Smith

Hunter Dozier and the Kansas City Royals (51-90, 4th in AL Central) are headed to Marlins Park on Saturday where they'll meet the Miami Marlins (50-89, 5th in NL East). The Marlins open this matchup at -122 while the Royals are coming in at +112. The total is set at 8.

The Royals have been solid for Las Vegas oddsmakers, having gone 51-90-0 SU. The Marlins cover 36.0% of the time, going 50-89-0 straight up.

Valuable Kansas City Royals Betting Trends

The Royals have been an inconsistent Under pick for over/under baseball bettors, having gone 70-65-6.

Kansas City is covering 32.4% of the time as the road team, having gone 22-46-0 straight up.

Important Miami Marlins Betting Trends

The Marlins cover 39.4% of the time at Marlins Park, going 28-43-0 SU.

The Marlins have been an inconsistent Under pick for over/under baseball bettors, having gone 66-64-9.

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Key Kansas City Royals Injuries

9/5/2019 Jake Newberry RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Sep 13
8/29/2019 Brad Keller SP Rest Out for the season
8/16/2019 Trevor Oaks SP Hip Expected to be out until at least Sep 20
3/11/2019 Salvador Perez C Elbow Out for the season

Key Miami Marlins Injuries

9/5/2019 JT Riddle CF Forearm Expected to be out until at least Sep 12
9/5/2019 Julian Fernandez RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 20
9/4/2019 Cesar Puello CF Hip Expected to be out until at least Sep 6
9/3/2019 Austin Brice RP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Sep 11
9/3/2019 Brian Anderson 3B Finger Out for the season
8/28/2019 Jordan Yamamoto SP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Sep 11
8/26/2019 Chad Wallach C Concussion Expected to be out until at least Sep 8
8/8/2019 Drew Steckenrider RP Elbow Out for the season

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Royals have a 51-90 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Danny Duffy has a 5-6 record with an earned run average of 4.89 and a WHIP of 1.40 this season. He has 93 strikeouts over his 106.2 innings pitched and he's given up 112 hits. He's allowed 9.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.03 and they have given up 522 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .272 against the bullpen and they've struck out 457 hitters and walked 220 batters. As a team, Kansas City allows 9.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.8 batters per nine innings. They are 27th in the league in team earned run average at 5.15. The Royals pitchers collectively have given up 1,333 base hits and 711 earned runs. They have allowed 190 home runs this season, ranking them 16th in the league. Kansas City as a pitching staff has walked 496 batters and struck out 1,074. They have walked 3.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.8 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.47 and their FIP as a unit is 4.85.

Related: Get MLB tips & picks on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Kansas City is hitting .245, good for 23rd in the league. The Royals hold a .399 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .309, which is good for 24th in baseball. They rank 23rd in MLB with 8.3 hits per game. Hunter Dozier is hitting .287 with an on-base percentage of .361. He has 127 hits this season in 443 at bats with 77 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .546 and an OPS+ of 135. Whit Merrifield is hitting .306 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .354. He has totaled 181 hits and he has driven in 71 men in 592 at bats. His OPS+ is 116 while his slugging percentage is at .476. The Royals have 1,172 hits, including 239 doubles and 142 home runs. Kansas City has walked 401 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,183 times as a unit. They have left 912 men on base and have a team OPS of .707. They score 4.28 runs per contest and have scored a total of 603 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Miami has a 50-89 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.30, Caleb Smith has a 8-9 record and a 1.14 WHIP. He has 148 strikeouts over the 127.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 98 hits. He's allowing 6.9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.97. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.02 and they have given up 457 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .249 against the Marlins bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 486 batters and walked 225 opposing hitters. As a team, Miami allows 8.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings. They are 21st in the league in team earned run average at 4.77. The Marlins pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,132 base knocks and 655 earned runs this season. They have given up 211 home runs this year, which ranks 8th in Major League Baseball. Miami as a staff has walked 527 hitters and struck out 1,188 batters. They give up a walk 3.8 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.7 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.34 while their FIP as a staff is 4.98.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .240, good for 29th in the league. The Marlins hold a .371 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .298, which is good for 29th in baseball. They rank 28th in MLB with 8.1 hits per contest. Starlin Castro comes into this matchup batting .273 with an OBP of .299. He has 150 hits this year along with 74 RBI in 549 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .421 with an OPS+ of 88. Garrett Cooper is hitting .276 this season and he has an OBP of .343. He has collected 98 hits in 355 at bats while driving in 49 runs. He has an OPS+ of 107 and a slugging percentage of .442. The Marlins as a unit have 1,130 base hits, including 223 doubles and 123 homers. Miami has walked 335 times this year and they have struck out on 1,273 occasions. They have had 886 men left on base and have an OPS of .668. They have scored 3.76 runs per game and totaled 522 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Royals/Marlins MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Royals (+112)

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