Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox Expert MLB Picks Against the Spread 9/3/2019

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Fenway Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. Rick Porcello

Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox (74-63, 3rd in AL East) host the Minnesota Twins (84-52, 1st in AL Central) at Fenway Park on Tuesday, September 3, 2019. The line on this game has the Twins coming in at +125 and the Red Sox are at -135. The total is set at 9.5.

The Twins have been an excellent choice for wagerers, having gone 84-52-0 SU. The Red Sox cover 54.0% of the time, going 74-63-0 straight up.

Valuable Minnesota Twins Betting Trends

The Twins have been a great Over pick for over/under bettors, having gone 72-57-7.

Minnesota covers 66.2% of the time away from home, having gone 45-23-0 straight up.

Important Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

The Red Sox cover 51.5% of the time at Fenway Park, going 34-32-0 SU.

The Red Sox have been a great Over pick for over/under bettors, having gone 78-55-4.

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Key Minnesota Twins Injuries

9/1/2019 Kyle Gibson SP Abdomen Expected to be out until at least Sep 13
9/1/2019 Byron Buxton CF Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Sep 15
9/1/2019 Max Kepler RF Leg Probable for Sep 2
9/1/2019 Sean Poppen RP Elbow Out for the season
9/1/2019 Marwin Gonzalez RF Abdomen Probable for Sep 2

Key Boston Red Sox Injuries

9/1/2019 Chris Sale SP Elbow Out for the season
9/1/2019 Steven Wright RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 15
9/1/2019 Jhoulys Chacin SP Lat Expected to be out until at least Sep 10
8/31/2019 Michael Chavis 1B Side Expected to be out until at least Sep 6
8/23/2019 Heath Hembree RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 9
8/11/2019 Steve Pearce 1B Knee Out for the season
8/7/2019 Dustin Pedroia 2B Knee Out for the season
11/1/2019 Austin Maddox RP Shoulder Out for the season

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Twins have a 84-52 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Jose Berrios has a 11-7 record with an earned run average of 3.57 and a WHIP of 1.23 this season. He has 163 strikeouts over his 169 innings pitched and he's given up 165 hits. He's allowed 8.8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.87. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.24 and they have given up 470 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .257 against the bullpen and they've struck out 483 hitters and walked 153 batters. As a team, Minnesota allows 9 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings. They are 8th in the league in team earned run average at 4.17. The Twins pitchers collectively have given up 1,228 base hits and 570 earned runs. They have allowed 167 home runs this season, ranking them 25th in the league. Minnesota as a pitching staff has walked 379 batters and struck out 1,201. They have walked 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.8 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.31 and their FIP as a unit is 4.07.

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Hitting Statistics

As a team Minnesota is hitting .273, good for 3rd in the league. The Twins hold a .503 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .339, which is good for 6th in baseball. They rank 2nd in MLB with 9.7 hits per game. Jorge Polanco is hitting .302 with an on-base percentage of .366. He has 164 hits this season in 543 at bats with 69 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .497 and an OPS+ of 127. Max Kepler is hitting .256 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .338. He has totaled 126 hits and he has driven in 88 men in 492 at bats. His OPS+ is 127 while his slugging percentage is at .539. The Twins have 1,319 hits, including 274 doubles and 268 home runs. Minnesota has walked 433 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,125 times as a unit. They have left 932 men on base and have a team OPS of .842. They score 5.96 runs per contest and have scored a total of 810 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Boston has a 74-63 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 5.42, Rick Porcello has a 12-10 record and a 1.41 WHIP. He has 117 strikeouts over the 149.1 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 169 hits. He's allowing 10.2 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.82. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.29 and they have given up 484 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .232 against the Red Sox bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 639 batters and walked 250 opposing hitters. As a team, Boston allows 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings. They are 19th in the league in team earned run average at 4.68. The Red Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,205 base knocks and 645 earned runs this season. They have given up 180 home runs this year, which ranks 19th in Major League Baseball. Boston as a staff has walked 492 hitters and struck out 1,364 batters. They give up a walk 3.6 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.9 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.37 while their FIP as a staff is 4.25.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .275, good for 1st in the league. The Red Sox hold a .480 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .346, which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.8 hits per contest. Rafael Devers comes into this matchup batting .321 with an OBP of .370. He has 176 hits this year along with 104 RBI in 548 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .577 with an OPS+ of 138. Mookie Betts is hitting .287 this season and he has an OBP of .387. He has collected 154 hits in 537 at bats while driving in 70 runs. He has an OPS+ of 128 and a slugging percentage of .507. The Red Sox as a unit have 1,346 base hits, including 308 doubles and 216 homers. Boston has walked 505 times this year and they have struck out on 1,150 occasions. They have had 998 men left on base and have an OPS of .826. They have scored 5.76 runs per game and totaled 789 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Twins/Red Sox MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Twins (+125)

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