Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Expert MLB Picks Against the Spread 9/25/2019

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Comerica Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Kyle Gibson vs. Daniel Norris

Brandon Dixon and the Detroit Tigers (46-109, 5th in AL Central) play the Minnesota Twins (96-60, 1st in AL Central) at Comerica Park on Wednesday, September 25, 2019. The Tigers open this matchup at +144 while the Twins are priced at -154. The over/under is set at 9.5.

The Twins have been an excellent play for MLB bettors, having gone 96-60-0 SU. The Tigers are covering 29.7% of the time, going 46-109-0 straight up.

Valuable Minnesota Twins Betting Trends

The Twins have been a good Over pick for O/U bettors, having gone 79-70-7.

Minnesota covers 66.7% of the time as a visitor, having gone 50-25-0 straight up.

Important Detroit Tigers Betting Trends

The Tigers are covering 28.2% of the time at Comerica Park, going 22-56-0 SU.

The Tigers have been a good Over pick for O/U bettors, having gone 69-75-11.

Related: Gambling 101 - MLB Betting Tips - Tony George of Doc's Sports

Key Minnesota Twins Injuries

9/22/2019 Mitch Garver C Hip Probable for Sep 24
9/22/2019 Ehire Adrianza SS Oblique Expected to be out until at least Sep 27
9/22/2019 Max Kepler RF Shoulder Probable for Sep 24
9/14/2019 Sam Dyson RP Biceps Out for the season
9/10/2019 Byron Buxton CF Shoulder Out for the season
9/1/2019 Sean Poppen RP Elbow Out for the season

Key Detroit Tigers Injuries

9/22/2019 Miguel Cabrera DH Knee Probable for Sep 24
9/20/2019 Tyson Ross SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 24
9/16/2019 Daniel Stumpf RP Elbow Out for the season
9/14/2019 Niko Goodrum SS Groin Expected to be out until at least Sep 28
9/1/2019 JaCoby Jones CF Wrist Out for the season
8/14/2019 Blaine Hardy RP Elbow Out for the season
4/30/2019 Matt Moore SP Knee Out for the season
3/23/2019 Michael Fulmer SP Elbow Out for the season
10/25/2019 Artie Lewicki RP Elbow Out for the season

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Twins have a 96-60 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Kyle Gibson has a 13-7 record with an earned run average of 4.88 and a WHIP of 1.43 this season. He has 153 strikeouts over his 156.2 innings pitched and he's given up 170 hits. He's allowed 9.8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.34. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.22 and they have given up 555 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .254 against the bullpen and they've struck out 592 hitters and walked 181 batters. As a team, Minnesota allows 9 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings. They are 10th in the league in team earned run average at 4.23. The Twins pitchers collectively have given up 1,413 base hits and 664 earned runs. They have allowed 195 home runs this season, ranking them 24th in the league. Minnesota as a pitching staff has walked 442 batters and struck out 1,403. They have walked 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.31 and their FIP as a unit is 4.09.

Related: Get MLB tips & picks on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Minnesota is hitting .270, good for 2nd in the league. The Twins hold a .495 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .338, which is good for 5th in baseball. They rank 2nd in MLB with 9.6 hits per game. Eddie Rosario is hitting .278 with an on-base percentage of .301. He has 152 hits this season in 547 at bats with 104 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .501 and an OPS+ of 107. Jorge Polanco is hitting .299 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .362. He has totaled 184 hits and he has driven in 78 men in 616 at bats. His OPS+ is 123 while his slugging percentage is at .490. The Twins have 1,491 hits, including 308 doubles and 297 home runs. Minnesota has walked 513 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,290 times as a unit. They have left 1,081 men on base and have a team OPS of .833. They score 5.81 runs per contest and have scored a total of 906 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Detroit has a 46-109 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.58, Daniel Norris has a 3-13 record and a 1.34 WHIP. He has 120 strikeouts over the 141.1 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 152 hits. He's allowing 9.7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.71. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.92 and they have given up 636 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .262 against the Tigers bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 585 batters and walked 285 opposing hitters. As a team, Detroit allows 9.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.6 batters per nine innings. They are 27th in the league in team earned run average at 5.26. The Tigers pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,503 base knocks and 807 earned runs this season. They have given up 242 home runs this year, which ranks 6th in Major League Baseball. Detroit as a staff has walked 520 hitters and struck out 1,313 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.6 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.47 while their FIP as a staff is 4.86.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .242, good for 25th in the league. The Tigers hold a .390 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .296, which is good for 30th in baseball. They rank 23rd in MLB with 8.3 hits per contest. Brandon Dixon comes into this matchup batting .249 with an OBP of .292. He has 94 hits this year along with 52 RBI in 377 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .438 with an OPS+ of 88. Miguel Cabrera is hitting .285 this season and he has an OBP of .350. He has collected 136 hits in 478 at bats while driving in 56 runs. He has an OPS+ of 95 and a slugging percentage of .391. The Tigers as a unit have 1,292 base hits, including 282 doubles and 145 homers. Detroit has walked 383 times this year and they have struck out on 1,536 occasions. They have had 1,037 men left on base and have an OPS of .686. They have scored 3.66 runs per game and totaled 567 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Twins/Tigers MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Twins (-154)

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