Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins Expert MLB Picks Against the Spread 7/30/2019
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.
Probable Pitchers: Jake Odorizzi vs. Zac Gallen
Jorge Polanco and the Minnesota Twins (64-41, 1st in AL Central) head to Marlins Park on Tuesday where they'll take on the Miami Marlins (40-63, 5th in NL East). The Marlins open this matchup at +145 while the Twins are coming in at -155. The total is set at 8.5.
The Twins have been an excellent bet for wagerers, having gone 64-41-0 SU. The Marlins cover 38.8% of the time, going 40-63-0 straight up. The Twins have been an excellent bet for wagerers as favorites, going 43-27-0 SU. The Marlins cover 36.7% of the time as an underdog, having gone 36-62-0 straight up.
Valuable Minnesota Twins Betting Trends
The Twins have been an inconsistent Under play for over/under MLB wagerers, having gone 53-47-5.
The Twins cover 62.3% of the time as the road team, having gone 33-20-0 straight up.
Important Miami Marlins Betting Trends
The Marlins cover 37.7% of the time at Marlins Park, going 20-33-0 SU.
The Marlins have been a decent Under play for over/under MLB wagerers, having gone 45-53-5.
Key Minnesota Twins Injuries
7/28/2019 Miguel Sano 3B Hand Expected to be out until at least Jul 30
7/28/2019 Willians Astudillo C Oblique Expected to be out until at least Aug 19
7/24/2019 LaMonte Wade RF Thumb Expected to be out until at least Aug 13
7/22/2019 C.J 1B Thumb Expected to be out until at least Jul 31
Key Miami Marlins Injuries
7/28/2019 JT Riddle CF Forearm Expected to be out until at least Aug 4
7/28/2019 Austin Brice RP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Aug 1
7/26/2019 Jon Berti 3B Oblique Expected to be out until at least Jul 29
7/23/2019 Pablo Lopez SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Aug 6
7/16/2019 Chad Wallach C Concussion Expected to be out until at least Aug 1
7/12/2019 Drew Steckenrider RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 31
7/11/2019 Julian Fernandez RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 31
6/14/2019 Jose Urena SP Back Expected to be out until at least Aug 13
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Twins have a 64-41 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi has a 11-5 record with an earned run average of 3.84 and a WHIP of 1.20 this season. He has 108 strikeouts over his 103 innings pitched and he's given up 88 hits. He's allowed 7.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.03. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.37 and they have given up 357 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .255 against the bullpen and they've struck out 368 hitters and walked 131 batters. As a team, Minnesota allows 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings. They are 7th in the league in team earned run average at 4.05. The Twins pitchers collectively have given up 918 base hits and 428 earned runs. They have allowed 132 home runs this season, ranking them 23rd in the league. Minnesota as a pitching staff has walked 299 batters and struck out 919. They have walked 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.7 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.28 and their FIP as a unit is 4.18.
As a team Minnesota is hitting .271, good for 2nd in the league. The Twins hold a .502 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .338, which is good for 5th in baseball. They rank 2nd in MLB with 9.6 hits per game. Jorge Polanco is hitting .305 with an on-base percentage of .363. He has 128 hits this season in 420 at bats with 52 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .512 and an OPS+ of 129. Jonathan Schoop is hitting .255 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .301. He has totaled 82 hits and he has driven in 43 men in 322 at bats. His OPS+ is 99 while his slugging percentage is at .463. The Twins have 1,011 hits, including 215 doubles and 205 home runs. Minnesota has walked 330 times so far this season and they have struck out 841 times as a unit. They have left 727 men on base and have a team OPS of .839. They score 5.75 runs per contest and have scored a total of 604 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Miami has a 40-63 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 2.76, Zac Gallen has a 1-2 record and a 1.23 WHIP. He has 35 strikeouts over the 29.1 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 21 hits. He's allowing 6.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.47. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.75 and they have given up 331 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .247 against the Marlins bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 366 batters and walked 154 opposing hitters. As a team, Miami allows 8.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings. They are 13th in the league in team earned run average at 4.33. The Marlins pitchers as a team have surrendered 832 base knocks and 441 earned runs this season. They have given up 127 home runs this year, which ranks 25th in Major League Baseball. Miami as a staff has walked 374 hitters and struck out 894 batters. They give up a walk 3.7 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.32 while their FIP as a staff is 4.46.
As a team, they are batting .238, good for 27th in the league. The Marlins hold a .362 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .294, which is good for 29th in baseball. They rank 28th in MLB with 8.0 hits per contest. Brian Anderson comes into this matchup batting .245 with an OBP of .324. He has 91 hits this year along with 47 RBI in 371 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .429 with an OPS+ of 102. Starlin Castro is hitting .249 this season and he has an OBP of .278. He has collected 102 hits in 409 at bats while driving in 42 runs. He has an OPS+ of 70 and a slugging percentage of .357. The Marlins as a unit have 829 base hits, including 161 doubles and 85 homers. Miami has walked 239 times this year and they have struck out on 927 occasions. They have had 663 men left on base and have an OPS of .656. They have scored 3.56 runs per game and totaled 367 runs this season.
Who will win tonight's Twins/Marlins MLB game against the spread?
Josh's Pick: Take the Twins -155
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