Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees MLB Game 1 Point Spread Picks 10/4/2019

Friday, October 4, 2019

Yankee Stadium

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. James Paxton

Brett Gardner and the New York Yankees (103-59, 1st in AL East) host the Minnesota Twins (101-61, 1st in AL Central) at Yankee Stadium on Friday in Game 1 of the ALDS. The Twins open this matchup at +150 while the Yankees are priced at -186. The O/U is set at 9.5.

The Twins have been a great play for bettors, having gone 101-61-0 SU. The Yankees cover 63.6% of the time, going 103-59-0 straight up.

Valuable Minnesota Twins Betting Trends

The Twins have been a hot and cold Under bet for over/under baseball wagerers, having gone 80-75-7.

Minnesota is covering 67.9% of the time away from home, having gone 55-26-0 straight up.

Important New York Yankees Betting Trends

New York is covering 70.4% of the time at Yankee Stadium, going 57-24-0 SU.

The Yankees have been a hot and cold Under bet for over/under baseball wagerers, having gone 84-72-6.

Key Minnesota Twins Injuries

9/29/2019 Luis Arraez 2B Ankle Expected to be out until at least Oct 4
9/29/2019 Ehire Adrianza SS Oblique Expected to be out until at least Oct 4
9/28/2019 Marwin Gonzalez RF Oblique Expected to be out until at least Oct 4
9/27/2019 Max Kepler RF Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Oct 4
9/25/2019 Sam Dyson RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Aug 1, 2020
9/10/2019 Byron Buxton CF Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
9/1/2019 Sean Poppen RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Nov 1

Key New York Yankees Injuries

9/29/2019 Gio Urshela 3B Ankle Expected to be out until at least Oct 4
9/28/2019 CC Sabathia SP Rest Expected to be out until at least Oct 4
9/28/2019 Aaron Hicks CF Elbow Expected to be out until at least Oct 20
9/28/2019 Edwin Encarnacion DH Oblique Expected to be out until at least Oct 4
9/28/2019 James Paxton SP Lower Body Expected to be out until at least Oct 4
9/19/2019 Jonathan Holder RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Oct 10
9/19/2019 Greg Bird 1B Foot Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
9/18/2019 Dellin Betances RP Achilles Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
9/10/2019 Mike Tauchman LF Calf Expected to be out until at least Oct 21
9/8/2019 Jacoby Ellsbury CF Foot Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
9/1/2019 Jake Barrett RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Mar 1, 2020
5/21/2019 Miguel Andujar DH Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Twins have a 101-61 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Jose Berrios has a 14-8 record with an earned run average of 3.68 and a WHIP of 1.22 this season. He has 195 strikeouts over his 200.1 innings pitched and he's given up 194 hits. He's allowed 8.7 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.85. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.17 and they have given up 572 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .253 against the bullpen and they've struck out 619 hitters and walked 185 batters. As a team, Minnesota allows 9 hits per nine innings while striking out 9 batters per nine innings. They are 8th in the league in team earned run average at 4.18. The Twins pitchers collectively have given up 1,456 base hits and 680 earned runs. They have allowed 198 home runs this season, ranking them 26th in the league. Minnesota as a pitching staff has walked 452 batters and struck out 1,463. They have walked 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.30 and their FIP as a unit is 4.02.

Related: Get MLB picks & tips on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Minnesota is hitting .270, good for 2nd in the league. The Twins hold a .494 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .338, which is good for 5th in baseball. They rank 2nd in MLB with 9.5 hits per game. Jorge Polanco is hitting .295 with an on-base percentage of .356. He has 186 hits this season in 631 at bats with 79 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .485 and an OPS+ of 120. Eddie Rosario is hitting .276 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .300. He has totaled 155 hits and he has driven in 109 men in 562 at bats. His OPS+ is 106 while his slugging percentage is at .500. The Twins have 1,547 hits, including 318 doubles and 307 home runs. Minnesota has walked 525 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,334 times as a unit. They have left 1,115 men on base and have a team OPS of .832. They score 5.8 runs per contest and have scored a total of 939 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

New York has a 103-59 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.82, James Paxton has a 15-6 record and a 1.28 WHIP. He has 186 strikeouts over the 150.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 138 hits. He's allowing 8.2 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.86. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.08 and they have given up 610 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .239 against the Yankees bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 750 batters and walked 267 opposing hitters. As a team, New York allows 8.6 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.6 batters per nine innings. They are 14th in the league in team earned run average at 4.31. The Yankees pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,374 base knocks and 691 earned runs this season. They have given up 248 home runs this year, which ranks 7th in Major League Baseball. New York as a staff has walked 507 hitters and struck out 1,534 batters. They give up a walk 3.2 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.6 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.30 while their FIP as a staff is 4.47.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .267, good for 4th in the league. The Yankees hold a .490 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .339, which is good for 4th in baseball. They rank 6th in MLB with 9.2 hits per contest. Brett Gardner comes into this matchup batting .251 with an OBP of .325. He has 123 hits this year along with 74 RBI in 491 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .503 with an OPS+ of 117. Aaron Judge is hitting .272 this season and he has an OBP of .381. He has collected 103 hits in 378 at bats while driving in 55 runs. He has an OPS+ of 143 and a slugging percentage of .540. The Yankees as a unit have 1,493 base hits, including 290 doubles and 306 homers. New York has walked 569 times this year and they have struck out on 1,437 occasions. They have had 1,039 men left on base and have an OPS of .829. They have scored 5.82 runs per game and totaled 943 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Twins/Yankees MLB game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Twins (+150)

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