New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Expert MLB Picks Against the Spread 6/24/2019

Monday, June 24, 2019

Citizens Bank Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Steven Matz vs. Jake Arrieta

Pete Alonso and the New York Mets (37-40, 4th in NL East) go to Citizens Bank Park on Monday where they'll meet the Philadelphia Phillies (39-37, 2nd in NL East). The Phillies open this matchup at -122 while the Mets are coming in at +112. The total has been set at 9.

The Mets have been an inconsistent choice for baseball wagerers, having gone 37-40-0 SU. Philadelphia covers 51.3% of the time, going 39-37-0 straight up. The Phillies have been a great option for bettors as a favorite, going 31-22-0 SU. New York has gone 15-22-0 straight up as an underdog, so they are covering 40.5% of the time.

Valuable New York Mets Betting Trends

The Mets have been a very good Over choice for over/under wagerers, having gone 41-28-8.

New York covers 39.5% of the time on the road, having gone 17-26-0 straight up.

Important Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends

The Phillies are covering 59.0% of the time at Citizens Bank Park, going 23-16-0 SU.

The Phillies have been a good Under choice for over/under wagerers, having gone 34-40-2.

Related: MLB Baseball First Five Innings Betting Strategy

Key New York Mets Injuries

6/22/2019 Jed Lowrie 3B Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/21/2019 Luis Avilan RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jun 28
6/19/2019 Justin Wilson RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/18/2019 Brandon Nimmo LF Neck Expected to be out until at least Aug 1
6/18/2019 Jeurys Familia RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jun 28
6/16/2019 Noah Syndergaard SP Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Jun 26
5/23/2019 Yoenis Cespedes CF Ankle Out for the season
5/3/2019 Drew Smith RP Elbow Out for the season

Key Philadelphia Phillies Injuries

6/22/2019 Jerad Eickhoff SP Biceps Expected to be out until at least Jul 30
6/22/2019 David Robertson RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 17
6/22/2019 Pat Neshek RP Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Jul 24
6/21/2019 Tommy Hunter RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jun 25
6/18/2019 Adam Haseley CF Groin Expected to be out until at least Jun 27
6/14/2019 Seranthony Dominguez RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 1
6/4/2019 Andrew McCutchen LF Knee Out for the season
6/4/2019 Victor Arano RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 1

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Mets have a 37-40 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Steven Matz has a 5-5 record with an earned run average of 4.28 and a WHIP of 1.37 this season. He has 74 strikeouts over his 73.2 innings pitched and he's given up 75 hits. He's allowed 9.2 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.99. The bullpen has an earned run average of 5.24 and they have given up 254 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .258 against the bullpen and they've struck out 261 hitters and walked 122 batters. As a team, New York allows 8.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. They are 17th in the league in team earned run average at 4.63. The Mets pitchers collectively have given up 675 base hits and 354 earned runs. They have allowed 99 home runs this season, ranking them 17th in the league. New York as a pitching staff has walked 258 batters and struck out 702. They have walked 3.4 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.2 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.36 and their FIP as a unit is 4.25.

Related: Get MLB tips & picks on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team New York is hitting .252, good for 15th in the league. The Mets hold a .429 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .326, which is good for 14th in baseball. They rank 13th in MLB with 8.7 hits per game. Pete Alonso is hitting .274 with an on-base percentage of .362. He has 76 hits this season in 277 at bats with 60 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .632 and an OPS+ of 163. Jeff McNeil is hitting .342 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .407. He has totaled 81 hits and he has driven in 27 men in 237 at bats. His OPS+ is 145 while his slugging percentage is at .494. The Mets have 670 hits, including 132 doubles and 107 home runs. New York has walked 257 times so far this season and they have struck out 698 times as a unit. They have left 531 men on base and have a team OPS of .756. They score 4.78 runs per contest and have scored a total of 368 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Philadelphia has a 39-37 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.12, Jake Arrieta has a 6-6 record and a 1.39 WHIP. He has 73 strikeouts over the 91.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 90 hits. He's allowing 8.8 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.01. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.73 and they have given up 263 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .265 against the Phillies bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 255 batters and walked 108 opposing hitters. As a team, Philadelphia allows 9 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings. They are 15th in the league in team earned run average at 4.49. The Phillies pitchers as a team have surrendered 679 base knocks and 338 earned runs this season. They have given up 126 home runs this year, which ranks 4th in Major League Baseball. Philadelphia as a staff has walked 258 hitters and struck out 642 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.5 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.38 while their FIP as a staff is 4.97.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .242, good for 22nd in the league. The Phillies hold a .414 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .321, which is good for 18th in baseball. They rank 21st in MLB with 8.2 hits per contest. Rhys Hoskins comes into this matchup batting .272 with an OBP of .399. He has 73 hits this year along with 50 RBI in 268 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .526 with an OPS+ of 138. Cesar Hernandez is hitting .271 this season and he has an OBP of .328. He has collected 76 hits in 280 at bats while driving in 33 runs. He has an OPS+ of 94 and a slugging percentage of .425. The Phillies as a unit have 620 base hits, including 146 doubles and 91 homers. Philadelphia has walked 282 times this year and they have struck out on 652 occasions. They have had 525 men left on base and have an OPS of .735. They have scored 4.68 runs per game and totaled 356 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Mets/Phillies MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Mets +112

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