Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Expert MLB Picks Against the Spread 7/29/2019
Monday, July 29, 2019
Great American Ball Park
Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.
Probable Pitchers: Jordan Lyles vs. Sonny Gray
Great American Ball Park is the venue where Joey Votto and the Cincinnati Reds (47-55, 4th in NL Central) will play the Pittsburgh Pirates (46-58, 5th in NL Central) on Monday. The Pirates open this game at +156 while the Reds are priced at -166. The total has been set at 9.5.
The Pirates have been a bad pick for MLB wagerers, having gone 46-58-0 SU. The Reds cover 46.1% of the time, going 47-55-0 straight up. The Reds have been a good play for baseball bettors as the favorite, going 22-18-0 SU. Pittsburgh has gone 30-42-0 straight up as the underdog, so they cover 41.7% of the time.
Valuable Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends
The Pirates have been an excellent Over pick for O/U baseball bettors, having gone 58-42-4.
Pittsburgh is covering 42.6% of the time as the away team, having gone 23-31-0 straight up.
Important Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends
The Reds cover 51.0% of the time at Great American Ball Park, going 25-24-0 SU.
The Reds have been a rough Over pick for O/U baseball bettors, having gone 37-62-3.
Key Pittsburgh Pirates Injuries
7/27/2019 Corey Dickerson LF Groin Probable for Jul 28
7/27/2019 Steven Brault SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Aug 9
7/27/2019 Rookie Davis RP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Aug 9
7/25/2019 Gregory Polanco RF Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Sep 1
7/25/2019 Lonnie Chisenhall RF Calf Expected to be out until at least Aug 15
7/25/2019 Jameson Taillon SP Elbow Out for the season
7/24/2019 Clay Holmes RP Triceps Expected to be out until at least Aug 21
7/24/2019 Francisco Cervelli C Concussion Expected to be out until at least Aug 21
7/13/2019 Erik Gonzalez SS Collarbone Expected to be out until at least Jul 29
6/25/2019 Nick Burdi RP Collarbone Out for the season
3/28/2019 Edgar Santana RP Elbow Out for the season
3/1/2019 Chad Kuhl SP Elbow Out for the season
Key Cincinnati Reds Injuries
7/27/2019 Derek Dietrich 2B Knee Probable for Jul 28
7/26/2019 Juan Graterol C Concussion Expected to be out until at least Aug 1
7/25/2019 Curt Casali C Knee Expected to be out until at least Aug 9
7/25/2019 Kyle Farmer 2B Concussion Expected to be out until at least Jul 29
7/25/2019 Alex Wood SP Back Expected to be out until at least Jul 28
7/22/2019 Tyler Mahle SP Hamstring Expected to be out until at least Jul 30
7/18/2019 David Hernandez RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 28
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Pirates have a 46-58 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Jordan Lyles has a 5-7 record with an earned run average of 5.36 and a WHIP of 1.47 this season. He has 90 strikeouts over his 82.1 innings pitched and he's given up 88 hits. He's allowed 9.6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.8. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.84 and they have given up 386 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .249 against the bullpen and they've struck out 419 hitters and walked 186 batters. As a team, Pittsburgh allows 9.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings. They are 24th in the league in team earned run average at 4.96. The Pirates pitchers collectively have given up 939 base hits and 510 earned runs. They have allowed 154 home runs this season, ranking them 9th in the league. Pittsburgh as a pitching staff has walked 375 batters and struck out 915. They have walked 3.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.42 and their FIP as a unit is 4.78.
As a team Pittsburgh is hitting .267, good for 5th in the league. The Pirates hold a .425 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .323, which is good for 16th in baseball. They rank 3rd in MLB with 9.3 hits per game. Starling Marte is hitting .281 with an on-base percentage of .321. He has 110 hits this season in 391 at bats with 60 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .494 and an OPS+ of 109. Josh Bell is hitting .287 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .368. He has totaled 111 hits and he has driven in 86 men in 387 at bats. His OPS+ is 147 while his slugging percentage is at .597. The Pirates have 972 hits, including 216 doubles and 106 home runs. Pittsburgh has walked 274 times so far this season and they have struck out 811 times as a unit. They have left 722 men on base and have a team OPS of .748. They score 4.61 runs per contest and have scored a total of 479 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Cincinnati has a 47-55 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.29, Sonny Gray has a 5-6 record and a 1.13 WHIP. He has 127 strikeouts over the 109.1 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 85 hits. He's allowing 7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.31. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.28 and they have given up 310 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .236 against the Reds bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 375 batters and walked 149 opposing hitters. As a team, Cincinnati allows 8.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.8 batters per nine innings. They are 5th in the league in team earned run average at 3.98. The Reds pitchers as a team have surrendered 811 base knocks and 400 earned runs this season. They have given up 126 home runs this year, which ranks 26th in Major League Baseball. Cincinnati as a staff has walked 339 hitters and struck out 982 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.27 while their FIP as a staff is 4.11.
As a team, they are batting .245, good for 23rd in the league. The Reds hold a .423 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .314, which is good for 22nd in baseball. They rank 24th in MLB with 8.2 hits per contest. Joey Votto comes into this matchup batting .257 with an OBP of .343. He has 93 hits this year along with 30 RBI in 362 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .395 with an OPS+ of 91. Eugenio Suarez is hitting .255 this season and he has an OBP of .333. He has collected 95 hits in 373 at bats while driving in 69 runs. He has an OPS+ of 118 and a slugging percentage of .531. The Reds as a unit have 839 base hits, including 148 doubles and 140 homers. Cincinnati has walked 295 times this year and they have struck out on 894 occasions. They have had 645 men left on base and have an OPS of .736. They have scored 4.46 runs per game and totaled 455 runs this season.
Who will win tonight's Pirates/Reds MLB game against the spread?
Josh's Pick: Take the Pirates +156
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