Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Expert Game 1 Picks Against the Spread 10/4/2019

Friday, October 4, 2019

Minute Maid Park

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Tyler Glasnow vs. Justin Verlander

Tommy Pham and the Tampa Bay Rays (96-66, 2nd in AL East) are headed to Minute Maid Park on Friday where they'll take on the Houston Astros (107-55, 1st in AL West) in Game 1 of the ALDS. The odds on this contest have the Rays priced at +194 and the Astros are at -210. The O/U is set at 7.5.

The Rays have been awful for oddsmakers, having gone 97-66-0 SU. The Astros cover 66.0% of the time, going 107-55-0 straight up.

Valuable Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends

The Rays have been a pretty good Over play for over/under wagerers, having gone 78-76-9.

The Rays cover 59.8% of the time on the road, having gone 49-33-0 straight up.

Important Houston Astros Betting Trends

The Astros cover 74.1% of the time at Minute Maid Park, going 60-21-0 SU.

The Astros have been a pretty good Over play for over/under wagerers, having gone 72-84-6.

Related: Gambling 101 - MLB Betting Tips - Tony George of Doc's Sports

Key Tampa Bay Rays Injuries

9/11/2019 Hoby Milner RP Neck Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
9/5/2019 Jose Alvarado RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Nov 1
4/2/2019 Jose Mujica SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Mar 1, 2020

Key Houston Astros Injuries

9/28/2019 Carlos Correa SS Back Expected to be out until at least Oct 4
9/27/2019 Aaron Sanchez SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 1, 2020
9/17/2019 Collin McHugh RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020
6/9/2019 Lance McCullers SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2020

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Rays have a 96-66 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow has a 6-1 record with an earned run average of 1.78 and a WHIP of 0.89 this season. He has 76 strikeouts over his 60.2 innings pitched and he's given up 40 hits. He's allowed 5.9 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 2.26. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.71 and they have given up 668 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .228 against the bullpen and they've struck out 825 hitters and walked 262 batters. As a team, Tampa Bay allows 7.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings. They are 2nd in the league in team earned run average at 3.65. The Rays pitchers collectively have given up 1,274 base hits and 598 earned runs. They have allowed 181 home runs this season, ranking them 30th in the league. Tampa Bay as a pitching staff has walked 453 batters and struck out 1,621. They have walked 2.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.17 and their FIP as a unit is 3.65.

Related: Get MLB tips & picks on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Tampa Bay is hitting .254, good for 12th in the league. The Rays hold a .431 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .325, which is good for 13th in baseball. They rank 11th in MLB with 8.8 hits per game. Tommy Pham is hitting .273 with an on-base percentage of .369. He has 155 hits this season in 567 at bats with 68 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .450 and an OPS+ of 119. Austin Meadows is hitting .291 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .364. He has totaled 154 hits and he has driven in 89 men in 530 at bats. His OPS+ is 143 while his slugging percentage is at .558. The Rays have 1,427 hits, including 291 doubles and 217 home runs. Tampa Bay has walked 542 times so far this season and they have struck out 1,493 times as a unit. They have left 1,130 men on base and have a team OPS of .757. They score 4.75 runs per contest and have scored a total of 769 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Houston has a 107-55 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 2.58, Justin Verlander has a 21-6 record and a 0.80 WHIP. He has 300 strikeouts over the 223 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 137 hits. He's allowing 5.5 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.27. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.75 and they have given up 470 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .224 against the Astros bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 608 batters and walked 197 opposing hitters. As a team, Houston allows 7.4 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.66. The Astros pitchers as a team have surrendered 1,205 base knocks and 595 earned runs this season. They have given up 230 home runs this year, which ranks 12th in Major League Baseball. Houston as a staff has walked 448 hitters and struck out 1,671 batters. They give up a walk 2.8 times per 9 innings while they strike out 10.3 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.13 while their FIP as a staff is 3.98.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .274, good for 1st in the league. The Astros hold a .495 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .352, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 3rd in MLB with 9.5 hits per contest. Alex Bregman comes into this matchup batting .296 with an OBP of .423. He has 164 hits this year along with 112 RBI in 554 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .592 with an OPS+ of 162. Michael Brantley is hitting .311 this season and he has an OBP of .372. He has collected 179 hits in 575 at bats while driving in 90 runs. He has an OPS+ of 126 and a slugging percentage of .503. The Astros as a unit have 1,538 base hits, including 323 doubles and 288 homers. Houston has walked 645 times this year and they have struck out on 1,166 occasions. They have had 1,168 men left on base and have an OPS of .848. They have scored 5.68 runs per game and totaled 920 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Rays/Astros MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Rays (+194)

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