Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Expert MLB Picks 7/15/2019
Monday, July 15, 2019
Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.
Probable Pitchers: Trent Thornton vs. Rick Porcello
Fenway Park is the site where Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox (50-42, 3rd in AL East) will play the Toronto Blue Jays (35-58, 4th in AL East) on Monday. The Red Sox open this matchup at -185 while the Blue Jays are priced at +174. The over/under has been set at 10.5.
The Blue Jays have been terrible for baseball wagerers, having gone 35-58-0 SU. The Red Sox are covering 54.4% of the time, going 50-42-0 straight up. The Red Sox have been strong for baseball bettors as a favorite, going 43-33-0 SU. Toronto covers 34.3% of the time as the underdog, having gone 23-44-0 straight up.
Valuable Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends
The Blue Jays have been a pretty good Under option for over/under wagerers, having gone 45-45-3.
Toronto covers 37.8% of the time as the visitor, having gone 17-28-0 straight up.
Important Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
Boston covers 50.0% of the time at Fenway Park, going 21-21-0 SU.
The Red Sox have been a very good Over option for over/under wagerers, having gone 52-37-3.
Key Toronto Blue Jays Injuries
7/13/2019 Ken Giles RP Elbow Probable for Jul 14
7/13/2019 Clayton Richard SP Lat Expected to be out until at least Jul 18
7/11/2019 Ryan Borucki RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 21
7/3/2019 Dalton Pompey CF Concussion Expected to be out until at least Jul 23
7/3/2019 Edwin Jackson SP Back Expected to be out until at least Jul 15
6/29/2019 Clay Buchholz SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 29
6/29/2019 Devon Travis 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Jul 29
6/17/2019 Elvis Luciano RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 13
6/13/2019 Ryan Tepera RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 10
5/15/2019 Matt Shoemaker SP Knee Out for the season
Key Boston Red Sox Injuries
7/13/2019 Mitch Moreland 1B Quadriceps Expected to be out until at least Jul 15
7/13/2019 Steven Wright RP Foot Expected to be out until at least Jul 15
7/12/2019 Blake Swihart C Oblique Expected to be out until at least Jul 22
7/12/2019 Nathan Eovaldi SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 19
7/2/2019 Steve Pearce 1B Back Expected to be out until at least Aug 1
6/29/2019 Brian Johnson RP Infection Expected to be out until at least Jul 30
5/28/2019 Dustin Pedroia 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Sep 1
11/1/2019 Austin Maddox RP Shoulder Out for the season
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Blue Jays have a 35-58 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Trent Thornton has a 3-6 record with an earned run average of 4.85 and a WHIP of 1.48 this season. He has 97 strikeouts over his 94.2 innings pitched and he's given up 99 hits. He's allowed 9.4 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.41. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.31 and they have given up 363 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .243 against the bullpen and they've struck out 407 hitters and walked 160 batters. As a team, Toronto allows 9.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.3 batters per nine innings. They are 22nd in the league in team earned run average at 4.87. The Blue Jays pitchers collectively have given up 844 base hits and 445 earned runs. They have allowed 134 home runs this season, ranking them 7th in the league. Toronto as a pitching staff has walked 345 batters and struck out 756. They have walked 3.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.3 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.45 and their FIP as a unit is 4.87.
As a team Toronto is hitting .232, good for 28th in the league. The Blue Jays hold a .407 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .298, which is good for 27th in baseball. They rank 29th in MLB with 7.8 hits per game. Eric Sogard is hitting .295 with an on-base percentage of .363. He has 70 hits this season in 237 at bats with 26 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .477 and an OPS+ of 125. Freddy Galvis is hitting .267 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .307. He has totaled 90 hits and he has driven in 44 men in 337 at bats. His OPS+ is 103 while his slugging percentage is at .460. The Blue Jays have 723 hits, including 143 doubles and 128 home runs. Toronto has walked 287 times so far this season and they have struck out 846 times as a unit. They have left 566 men on base and have a team OPS of .705. They score 4.25 runs per contest and have scored a total of 395 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Boston has a 50-42 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 5.33, Rick Porcello has a 6-7 record and a 1.43 WHIP. He has 81 strikeouts over the 99.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 111 hits. He's allowing 10 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.53. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.51 and they have given up 331 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .239 against the Red Sox bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 428 batters and walked 164 opposing hitters. As a team, Boston allows 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings. They are 18th in the league in team earned run average at 4.62. The Red Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 805 base knocks and 428 earned runs this season. They have given up 121 home runs this year, which ranks 18th in Major League Baseball. Boston as a staff has walked 313 hitters and struck out 938 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 10.1 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.34 while their FIP as a staff is 4.13.
As a team, they are batting .271, good for 2nd in the league. The Red Sox hold a .462 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .344, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 2nd in MLB with 9.7 hits per contest. Rafael Devers comes into this matchup batting .327 with an OBP of .380. He has 115 hits this year along with 64 RBI in 352 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .557 with an OPS+ of 140. J.D. Martinez is hitting .296 this season and he has an OBP of .368. He has collected 96 hits in 324 at bats while driving in 48 runs. He has an OPS+ of 130 and a slugging percentage of .528. The Red Sox as a unit have 888 base hits, including 188 doubles and 135 homers. Boston has walked 348 times this year and they have struck out on 769 occasions. They have had 671 men left on base and have an OPS of .805. They have scored 5.64 runs per game and totaled 519 runs this season.
Who will win tonight's Blue Jays/Red Sox MLB game against the spread?
Josh's Pick: Take the Red Sox -185
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