Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Expert MLB Picks 7/18/2019
Thursday, July 18, 2019
Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.
Probable Pitchers: Clayton Richard vs. Chris Sale
J.D. Martinez and the Boston Red Sox (51-44, 3rd in AL East) play the Toronto Blue Jays (36-60, 4th in AL East) at Fenway Park on Thursday, July 18, 2019. The Blue Jays open this game at +115 while the Red Sox are priced at -125. The total is set at 9.5.
The Blue Jays have been an awful pick for bettors, having gone 36-60-0 SU. Boston covers 53.7% of the time, going 51-44-0 straight up. The Red Sox have been terrible for Vegas oddsmakers as favorites, going 44-35-0 SU. The Blue Jays are covering 34.3% of the time as an underdog, having gone 24-46-0 straight up.
Valuable Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends
The Blue Jays have been a dicey Under bet for over/under baseball wagerers, having gone 47-46-3.
Toronto covers 37.5% of the time as the visitor, having gone 18-30-0 straight up.
Important Boston Red Sox Betting Trends
Boston covers 48.9% of the time at Fenway Park, going 22-23-0 SU.
The Red Sox have been an awful Under bet for over/under baseball wagerers, having gone 55-37-3.
Related: ACC Preview - SEC Preview - Sports Handicapping - CFB Futures - Ken Thomson / Tony George break down the Season
Key Toronto Blue Jays Injuries
7/16/2019 Ken Giles RP Elbow Probable for Jul 17
7/14/2019 Clayton Richard SP Lat Expected to be out until at least Jul 28
7/11/2019 Ryan Borucki RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 21
7/3/2019 Dalton Pompey CF Concussion Expected to be out until at least Jul 23
6/29/2019 Clay Buchholz SP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Jul 29
6/29/2019 Devon Travis 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Jul 29
6/17/2019 Elvis Luciano RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 13
6/13/2019 Ryan Tepera RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Aug 10
5/15/2019 Matt Shoemaker SP Knee Out for the season
Key Boston Red Sox Injuries
7/15/2019 Nathan Eovaldi SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 23
7/14/2019 Steven Wright RP Foot Expected to be out until at least Jul 24
7/14/2019 Mitch Moreland 1B Quadriceps Expected to be out until at least Jul 22
7/12/2019 Blake Swihart C Oblique Expected to be out until at least Jul 22
7/2/2019 Steve Pearce 1B Back Expected to be out until at least Aug 1
6/29/2019 Brian Johnson RP Infection Expected to be out until at least Jul 30
5/28/2019 Dustin Pedroia 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Sep 1
11/1/2019 Austin Maddox RP Shoulder Out for the season
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Blue Jays have a 36-60 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Clayton Richard has a 1-5 record with an earned run average of 5.96 and a WHIP of 1.57 this season. He has 22 strikeouts over his 45.1 innings pitched and he's given up 53 hits. He's allowed 10.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 6.28. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.31 and they have given up 377 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .244 against the bullpen and they've struck out 422 hitters and walked 169 batters. As a team, Toronto allows 9.3 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.3 batters per nine innings. They are 23rd in the league in team earned run average at 4.91. The Blue Jays pitchers collectively have given up 876 base hits and 463 earned runs. They have allowed 137 home runs this season, ranking them 9th in the league. Toronto as a pitching staff has walked 362 batters and struck out 780. They have walked 3.8 men per 9 innings while striking out 8.3 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.46 and their FIP as a unit is 4.88.
Related: Get MLB predictions on all of today's games
As a team Toronto is hitting .234, good for 29th in the league. The Blue Jays hold a .410 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .299, which is good for 29th in baseball. They rank 30th in MLB with 7.9 hits per game. Freddy Galvis is hitting .269 with an on-base percentage of .308. He has 93 hits this season in 346 at bats with 46 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .457 and an OPS+ of 102. Eric Sogard is hitting .302 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .370. He has totaled 74 hits and he has driven in 27 men in 245 at bats. His OPS+ is 130 while his slugging percentage is at .494. The Blue Jays have 756 hits, including 149 doubles and 133 home runs. Toronto has walked 291 times so far this season and they have struck out 863 times as a unit. They have left 585 men on base and have a team OPS of .710. They score 4.32 runs per contest and have scored a total of 415 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Boston has a 51-44 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.27, Chris Sale has a 3-9 record and a 1.10 WHIP. He has 160 strikeouts over the 111.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 96 hits. He's allowing 7.7 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.37. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.53 and they have given up 347 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .241 against the Red Sox bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 439 batters and walked 169 opposing hitters. As a team, Boston allows 8.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 10 batters per nine innings. They are 17th in the league in team earned run average at 4.64. The Red Sox pitchers as a team have surrendered 841 base knocks and 446 earned runs this season. They have given up 125 home runs this year, which ranks 17th in Major League Baseball. Boston as a staff has walked 323 hitters and struck out 960 batters. They give up a walk 3.4 times per 9 innings while they strike out 10 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.35 while their FIP as a staff is 4.16.
As a team, they are batting .272, good for 1st in the league. The Red Sox hold a .462 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .346, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.7 hits per contest. J.D. Martinez comes into this matchup batting .294 with an OBP of .368. He has 98 hits this year along with 49 RBI in 333 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .529 with an OPS+ of 129. Rafael Devers is hitting .326 this season and he has an OBP of .380. He has collected 118 hits in 362 at bats while driving in 66 runs. He has an OPS+ of 138 and a slugging percentage of .552. The Red Sox as a unit have 922 base hits, including 198 doubles and 139 homers. Boston has walked 369 times this year and they have struck out on 798 occasions. They have had 704 men left on base and have an OPS of .808. They have scored 5.65 runs per game and totaled 537 runs this season.
Who will win tonight's Blue Jays/Red Sox MLB game against the spread?
Josh's Pick: Take the Red Sox -125
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