Free MLB Picks for Saturday, April 27, 2019

Circle Monday, June 24 on your calendars. That's the next time the Mets and Phillies play (in Philadelphia), and I'd expect some fireworks. Frankly, I'm shocked nothing happened on Wednesday, a night after Mets reliever Jacob Rhame sailed two pitches over the head of Phillies slugger Rhys Hoskins. But on Wednesday, Hoskins got his revenge in huge way, homering off Rhame in the ninth inning. Hoskins followed with an epic bat drop and then took 34.23 seconds to round the bases - Hoskins' previous slowest time this year was 23.82 seconds. The 34.23-second trot was also the slowest recorded by Statcast since tracking began in 2015, beating the record of 34.1 set by Victor Martinez in 2016. If Hoskins isn't plunked on June 24, it would be an upset. Rhame did get a two-game suspension.

Reds at Cardinals (-145, 9)

MLB Network first pitch at 2:15 p.m. ET. It's Dakota Hudson (1-1, 5.89) for the Cardinals, and I'm sorry but that sounds like a stripper's name. The 24-year-old was very good as a reliever last year but has started four of five appearances in 2019 with some injuries to the rotation. He has struggled the past two times out, allowing nine runs and 13 hits over 8.2 innings. Hudson has thrown two shutout innings in his career against the Reds. Yasiel Puig is 2-for-2 off him. Cincinnati's Tyler Mahle (0-2, 3.52) has allowed four runs over six innings in back-to-back starts. He's 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA in two career starts vs. the Cardinals. Yadier Molina is 3-for-6 with a homer off him.

Key trends: The Reds have lost Mahle's past five on the road. The "over/under" has gone under in 10 of his past 12 vs. the NL Central.

Early lean: Cardinals and under.

Indians at Astros (-145, 9)

Fox Sports 1 game at 4:05 p.m. ET. Cleveland got some good news this week on the MRI of the knee of starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco as he shouldn't even miss a start. That's big with fellow starter Mike Clevinger already on the 60-day DL. It's Shane Bieber (2-1, 3.47) here for the Tribe. He was shelled for seven runs and two homers over 2.1 innings last time out vs. the Braves. It's his first career look vs. Houston. The Astros' Brad Peacock (2-1, 4.29) was back in the rotation Monday against the Twins after two relief outings and allowed three runs and six hits in five innings. Cleveland's Leonys Martin is 3-for-9 with a homer against him.

Key trends: The Astros are 6-2 in Peacock's past eight at home. The over is 8-2 in his past 10 on four days of rest.

Early lean: Astros and over.

Brewers at Mets (-167, 7.5)

On Fox Sports 1 following Indians-Astros. With the Brewers signing Gio Gonzalez this week, Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 5.81) might be pitching for his rotation spot here. He allowed five runs and seven hits over 5.2 innings last time out vs. the Dodgers. Then again, Woodruff does have a decent 3.89 fielding independent pitching number. Only one Met has faced him: Wilson Ramos (1-for-3). New York's Noah Syndergaard (1-2, 5.90) has been a huge disappointment. He's still striking out guys, but batters are hitting an unusual .268 against him. "Thor" hasn't had an ERA above 5.00 this late in a season since his rookie year. The Brewers' Travis Shaw is 2-for-5 with a homer off him.

Key trends: The Mets are 8-2 in Syndergaard's past 10 at home. The over is 5-2 in his past seven there.

Early lean: Brewers on runline and over.

Angels at Royals (+104, 9.5)

The Halos have made a change at closer. Cody Allen had converted all four save opportunities this season but had a 5.40 ERA and seven walks in 8.1 innings. Allen is currently on a one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Angels. Manager Brad Ausmus indicated he would go with some other guys for a while, although Ty Buttrey probably gets the majority of chances. L.A. goes with Jaime Barria (2-1, 4.26). It's his second start and fourth appearance of the year. He followed an "opener" last time out vs. Seattle and allowed a run over five innings. It's his first look at the Royals. Kansas City's Jorge Lopez (0-2, 4.50) allowed four runs over seven in his last start, also vs. the Yankees. He hasn't faced the Angels.

Key trends: The Royals are 0-6 in Lopez's past six starts. The over has hit in six straight at home.

Early lean: Angels and over.

Pirates at Dodgers (-195, 7)

So far, pretty good in two starts off some arm soreness for Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 2.77). He has gone at least six in both, allowing two earned runs in each. He did have an uncharacteristic four walks last time out in Milwaukee. Kershaw is 3-3 in 12 career starts against Pittsburgh. Gregor Polanco is 3-for-12 off him with a homer and double. The Pirates' Joe Musgrove (1-1, 1.59) comes off his worst start of the year, but it was still quality: six innings, three runs allowed vs. Arizona. All four of his starts have been quality. The Dodgers' Joc Pederson is 1-for-2 with a homer against him.

Key trends: The Pirates are 1-6 in Musgrove's past seven on the road. The under is 5-0-1 in Kershaw's previous six at home.

Early lean: Pirates on runline and under.

Read more articles by Alan Matthews