Free MLB Picks: Thursday, July 25, 2019, Opening Line Report and Handicapping

Free MLB Picks: Thursday, July 25, 2019, Opening Line Report and Handicapping

By Alan Matthews

I highly, highly doubt that either the Tampa Bay Rays or Boston Red Sox catch the first-place New York Yankees in the AL East Division this year, but if the Red Sox have any shot whatsoever at repeating as division champs, they essentially have to sweep the four-game set against the Bombers that begins Thursday night, naturally, on national TV. If the Sox can get the deficit to six games or so entering August, then you never know because the clubs still play eight more games: four at Yankee Stadium next weekend (Saturday doubleheader) and then four back on Fenway Park from Sept. 6-9. New York leads the season series, though, 6-1. The Yankees are -6600 at Bovada to win the division with the Rays are +1400 and Red Sox +1500.

Padres at Mets (-205, 7.5)

A 12:10 p.m. ET start and on the MLB Network. The Mets have generally been inept offensively when reigning NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom (5-7, 3.02) is on the mound as he has a 2.31 ERA over his past 11 starts but just two wins. He blanked the Giants on three hits over seven with 10 strikeouts last Friday but still didn’t win. DeGrom lost at San Diego on May 6 (7 IP, 2 ER). Hunter Renfroe is 3-for-6 with a double and two solo homers off him. Friars lefty Eric Lauer (5-7, 4.31) hasn’t won since June 3 and has gotten three straight no-decisions. He missed the Mets earlier in the season. Michael Conforto is 2-for-2 with a homer off him.

Key trends: The Padres are 1-6 in Lauer’s past six against teams with a losing record. The “over/under” has gone under in four of deGrom’s previous five against the Padres.

Early lean: Mets on runline and under.

Cardinals at Pirates (-110, 9)

The Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas (6-10, 4.17) has been much better in two starts since the All-Star break. He entered the seventh on Saturday having blanked the Reds but then allowed three runs and was pulled. He’s 1-1 with a 2.14 ERA in three starts this year against the Bucs, including a complete-game shutout. Adam Frazier is 9-for-25 off him with four doubles and two triples. Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove (7-8, 4.08) didn’t allow an earned run over six innings on Saturday vs. the Phillies. He’s 0-2 with a 14.09 ERA in two starts this year vs. St. Louis. Dexter Fowler is 4-for-8 with two doubles and a triple off him.

Key trends: The Pirates have lost Musgrove’s past four vs. St. Louis. The under has hit in five straight Mikolas starts vs. the NL Central.

Early lean: Cardinals and under.

 

Yankees at Red Sox (+117, 11)

MLB Network prime-time game. New York’s Masahiro Tanaka (7-5, 4.00) hasn’t lost since June 4. He wasn’t sharp last time out, though, tagged for five runs over six innings but still beat Colorado. The shortest start of his career was June 29 vs. the Red Sox in London, giving up six runs in just two-thirds of an inning. JD Martinez is a career .444 hitter off him with three homers in 18 at-bats. Boston’s Rick Porcello (8-7, 5.61) has won his past three starts despite allowing 16 combined runs in them. He lasted just a third of an inning on June 29 vs. the Yankees, bombed for six runs. Aaron Judge is 4-for-17 with a homer against him.

Key trends: The Sox are 4-1 in Porcello’s past five at home in the series. The over is 6-1-1 in the previous eight meetings in Boston.

Early lean: Yankees and over.

 

Twins at White Sox (+127, 9)

Matchup of All-Star aces. It’s Jose Berrios (8-5, 2.96) for the Twins, but he hasn’t personally won since June 6. He blanked the A’s over 5.2 innings last time out. Berrios has not completed six innings in his past three starts after having done so in his previous seven. He’s 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two 2019 starts vs. the Pale Hose. James McCann is 6-for-15 with three homers off him. Chicago’s Lucas Giolito (11-4, 3.12) comes off a no-decision at Tampa Bay (6.2 IP, 1 ER). He beat the Twins on June 30 (5 IP, 0 R). Eddie Rosario is 4-for-15 with two doubles and a homer against him.

Key trends: The Twins are 7-1 in Berrios’ past eight vs. the White Sox. The under is 5-2 in Giolito’s previous seven in the series.

Early lean: Twins and under.

 

Rangers at A’s (-180, 9.5)

Texas’ Ariel Jurado (5-6, 4.92) is 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA in his past four starts – his ERA before that stretch was 3.90. The 23-year-old gets his first look this year at Oakland. Ramon Laureano is 3-for-4 with a double and RBI off him. Don’t be surprised if any day now the Rangers trade DH Hunter Pence to a contender; Texas has no need to keep a 36-year-old on a one-year contract. A’s lefty Brett Anderson (9-5, 3.82) is expected to be activated off the paternity list and is working on four straight quality starts, which has lowered his ERA from 4.26. He has a 3.65 ERA in 12.1 innings this year vs. Texas but no decisions.

Key trends: The Rangers have lost Jurado’s past four vs. the AL West. The over is 9-3 in the previous 12 meetings.

Early lean: A’s on runline and over.

Read more articles by Alan Matthews