Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 10/11/2020 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Sunday, October 11, 2020

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Astros (+136) Rays (-146)

Tropicana Field is the venue where Yandy Díaz and the Tampa Bay Rays (40-20, 1st in AL East) will take on the Houston Astros (29-31, 2nd in AL West) on Sunday in Game 1 of the ALCS. The Rays open this game at -146 while the Astros are coming in at +136. The over/under is set at 8.5. The men expected to take the mound will be Lance McCullers Jr. and Blake Snell. The Rays were able to beat the Yankees in 5 games to advance while the Astros took care of the Athletics in 4 games. 

Key Houston Astros Injuries

10/7/2020 Brad Peacock RP Shoulder Out for the season
9/30/2020 Roberto Osuna RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/29/2020 Chris Devenski RP Elbow Out for the season
9/29/2020 Justin Verlander SP Elbow Out for the season
9/23/2020 Rogelio Armenteros RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/4/2020 Austin Pruitt RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Apr 1, 2021
8/23/2020 Yordan Alvarez DH Knee Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021

Key Tampa Bay Rays Injuries

10/10/2020 Brett Phillips RF Hamstring Out for the season
10/8/2020 Oliver Drake RP Elbow 
10/5/2020 Jose Alvarado RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Oct 12
9/18/2020 Cody Reed RP Finger Expected to be out until at least Oct 19
8/29/2020 Jalen Beeks RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 1, 2021
8/29/2020 Chaz Roe RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
8/22/2020 Yonny Chirinos SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2022
8/13/2020 Andrew Kittredge RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2022
7/21/2020 Colin Poche RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 1, 2021

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Astros had a 29-31 overall record this season. McCullers (32-25 record in his career) has a FIP of 3.33 and he has gone up against 2,138 hitters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 3.70 (209 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.262. He has allowed 444 base knocks (7.9 hits per nine innings) and has had 198 free passes. McCullers has pitched in 509 innings and is sitting with 565 K's in his MLB career. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.39 and they have given up 204 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .214 against the bullpen and they've struck out 225 hitters and walked 118 batters. As a team, Houston allows 8.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 9 batters per nine innings. They are 13th in the league in team earned run average at 4.31. The Astros pitchers collectively have given up 472 base hits and 251 earned runs. They have allowed 70 home runs this season, ranking them 20th in the league. Houston as a pitching staff has walked 217 batters and struck out 526. They have walked 3.7 men per 9 innings while striking out 9 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.32 and their FIP as a unit is 4.33.

Related: Get MLB predictions on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Houston is hitting .240, good for 20th in the league. The Astros hold a .408 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .312, which is good for 22nd in baseball. They rank 17th in MLB with 8.0 hits per game. Alex Bregman is hitting .242 with an on-base percentage of .350. He has 37 hits this season in 153 at bats with 22 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .451 and an OPS+ of 116. Carlos Correa is hitting .264 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .326. He has totaled 53 hits and he has driven in 25 men in 201 at bats. His OPS+ is 92 while his slugging percentage is at .383. The Astros have 478 hits, including 103 doubles and 69 home runs. Houston has walked 192 times so far this season and they have struck out 440 times as a unit. They have left 382 men on base and have a team OPS of .720. They score 4.65 runs per contest and have scored a total of 279 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Tampa Bay has a 40-20 overall mark this year. Snell (42-30 career record) is the owner of a 3.24 ERA while giving up 7.4 hits per nine innings. His SO/W ratio is 2.79 and he has gone up against 2,292 opposing batters in his pro baseball career. So far in his pro baseball career, Snell has conceded 456 base knocks while he has earned 648 K's in 556 frames. He has allowed 200 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.237 and a FIP of 3.5. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.37 and they have given up 234 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .209 against the Rays bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 263 batters and walked 87 opposing hitters. As a team, Tampa Bay allows 8.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.56. The Rays pitchers as a team have surrendered 475 base knocks and 209 earned runs this season. They have given up 70 home runs this year, which ranks 19th in Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay as a staff has walked 168 hitters and struck out 552 batters. They give up a walk 2.9 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.4 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.22 while their FIP as a staff is 3.94.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .238, good for 21st in the league. The Rays hold a .425 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .328, which is good for 11th in baseball. They rank 20th in MLB with 7.8 hits per contest. Yandy Díaz comes into this matchup batting .307 with an OBP of .428. He has 35 hits this year along with 11 RBI in 114 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .386 with an OPS+ of 131. Austin Meadows is hitting .205 this season and he has an OBP of .296. He has collected 27 hits in 132 at bats while driving in 13 runs. He has an OPS+ of 86 and a slugging percentage of .371. The Rays as a unit have 470 base hits, including 105 doubles and 80 homers. Tampa Bay has walked 243 times this year and they have struck out on 608 occasions. They have had 416 men left on base and have an OPS of .753. They have scored 4.82 runs per game and totaled 289 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Astros/Rays MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Rays (-146)

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