New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 10/5/2020 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Monday, October 5, 2020

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Yankees (-125) Rays (+115)

Kevin Kiermaier and the Tampa Bay Rays (40-20, 1st in AL East) play the New York Yankees (33-27, 2nd in AL East) at Tropicana Field on Monday in Game 1 of the ALDS. The Yankees open this matchup at -125 while the Rays are priced at +115. The over/under opens at 7.5. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell.

Key New York Yankees Injuries

9/22/2020 Ben Heller RP Biceps Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
9/16/2020 James Paxton SP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Oct 9
8/6/2020 Tommy Kahnle RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 1, 2021
6/28/2020 Luis Severino SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jun 1, 2021

Key Tampa Bay Rays Injuries

10/2/2020 Brett Phillips RF Hamstring Out for the season
10/1/2020 Austin Meadows LF Oblique Out for the season
9/29/2020 Jose Alvarado RP Shoulder Expected to be out until at least Oct 5
9/18/2020 Cody Reed RP Finger Expected to be out until at least Oct 19
8/29/2020 Chaz Roe RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2021
8/29/2020 Jalen Beeks RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 1, 2021
8/22/2020 Yonny Chirinos SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2022
8/13/2020 Andrew Kittredge RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Feb 1, 2022
7/21/2020 Colin Poche RP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Sep 1, 2021

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Yankees have a 33-27 overall record this season. Cole has taken the hill for 1,268 frames and has racked up 1,430 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 3.19 (450 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.119. He has conceded 1,087 hits (7.7 hits per nine innings) and has 332 free passes. Cole (101-55 record in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.16 while he has gone up against 5,131 opposing hitters in the majors. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.51 and they have given up 183 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .203 against the bullpen and they've struck out 213 hitters and walked 93 batters. As a team, New York allows 8.2 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings. They are 14th in the league in team earned run average at 4.35. The Yankees pitchers collectively have given up 455 base hits and 242 earned runs. They have allowed 83 home runs this season, ranking them 5th in the league. New York as a pitching staff has walked 168 batters and struck out 528. They have walked 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.5 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.24 and their FIP as a unit is 4.39.

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Hitting Statistics

As a team New York is hitting .247, good for 14th in the league. The Yankees hold a .447 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .342, which is good for 3rd in baseball. They rank 18th in MLB with 7.9 hits per game. Gio Urshela is hitting .298 with an on-base percentage of .368. He has 45 hits this season in 151 at bats with 30 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .490 and an OPS+ of 136. Luke Voit is hitting .277 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .338. He has totaled 59 hits and he has driven in 52 men in 213 at bats. His OPS+ is 156 while his slugging percentage is at .610. The Yankees have 473 hits, including 87 doubles and 94 home runs. New York has walked 251 times so far this season and they have struck out 480 times as a unit. They have left 399 men on base and have a team OPS of .789. They score 5.25 runs per contest and have scored a total of 315 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Tampa Bay has a 40-20 overall mark this year. So far in his MLB career, Snell has allowed 456 hits while he has totaled 648 K's in 556 innings pitched. He has allowed 200 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.237 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.5. He has a SO/W ratio of 2.79 and he has gone up against 2,292 opposing batters during his pro baseball career. Snell (42-30 career record) has earned a 3.24 ERA while giving up 7.4 hits per 9 innings. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.37 and they have given up 234 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .209 against the Rays bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 263 batters and walked 87 opposing hitters. As a team, Tampa Bay allows 8.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.56. The Rays pitchers as a team have surrendered 475 base knocks and 209 earned runs this season. They have given up 70 home runs this year, which ranks 19th in Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay as a staff has walked 168 hitters and struck out 552 batters. They give up a walk 2.9 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.4 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.22 while their FIP as a staff is 3.94.

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Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .238, good for 21st in the league. The Rays hold a .425 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .328, which is good for 11th in baseball. They rank 20th in MLB with 7.8 hits per contest. Kevin Kiermaier comes into this matchup batting .217 with an OBP of .321. He has 30 hits this year along with 22 RBI in 138 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .362 with an OPS+ of 91. Ji-Man Choi is hitting .230 this season and he has an OBP of .331. He has collected 28 hits in 122 at bats while driving in 16 runs. He has an OPS+ of 106 and a slugging percentage of .410. The Rays as a unit have 470 base hits, including 105 doubles and 80 homers. Tampa Bay has walked 243 times this year and they have struck out on 608 occasions. They have had 416 men left on base and have an OPS of .753. They have scored 4.82 runs per game and totaled 289 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Yankees/Rays MLB game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Yankees (-125)

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