Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 4/2/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

Date: Friday, April 2, 2021

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Odds/Point Spread: Arizona (+205) San Diego (-225)

Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks (25-35, 5th in NL West last year) travel to Petco Park on Friday where they'll meet the San Diego Padres (37-23, 2nd in NL West last season). The moneyline on this game has the Diamondbacks priced at +205 and the Padres are at -225. The total opens at 8.5. The men taking the mound are Merrill Kelly and Blake Snell.

The Diamondbacks accumulated 101 doubles last year as a team and knocked 58 balls out of the park. Arizona was slugging .391 and were rung up 461 times, while getting the free base on 181 occasions. As a unit, the Arizona Diamondbacks put up 4.5 runs per contest, which had them at 18th in the league. They compiled 255 runs batted in as well as 482 hits for the previous season, and their average at the plate was .241. They accounted for 269 runs while having a team OBP of .312.

Diamondbacks pitchers gave up 93 home runs and 295 runs (14th in baseball). They walked 235 opposing batters and their FIP came in at 4.99 as a unit in the prior season. Their K/BB ratio was 2.23 and the pitching staff held a WHIP of 1.43. The Diamondbacks had a team ERA of 4.85 for the prior year (20th in the league), and their staff struck out 524 batters. The Diamondbacks had sent 200 relief pitchers to the hill for the previous season. The relief pitchers inherited 96 base runners over the course of last year with 31.3% of those runners earned a run for their team. They had 13 saves in the prior season and did not convert 9 of 22 chances to save the game. The Diamondbacks bullpen recorded a save rate of 59.1% and came into the game in 44 save situations. The relief pitchers notched 21 holds for the prior year (26th in MLB). Diamondbacks relief pitchers entered the contest with runners on in 62 games in addition to 53 games with high leverage.

Kelly had a FIP of 3.99 and his ERA+ was 179. Merrill Kelly conceded 26 base knocks in 31.1 innings he pitched over the course of last year. He conceded 9 earned runs last season and had a strikeout to walk ratio of 5.8. He allowed 7.5 H/9 and his WHIP was 0.989. His earned run average was at 2.59 and he struck out 29 hitters. Kelly has thrown 214 innings and has racked up 187 punch outs so far in his pro baseball career. Kelly (16-16 career record) holds a FIP of 4.44 while he has gone up against 902 opposing batters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 4.15 (99 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.267. He has surrendered 210 hits (8.8 hits per 9 innings) with 62 free passes.

San Diego recorded 95 long balls for the previous season to go along with 312 RBIs. They hit 103 two-baggers, while taking a walk 204 times as well as scoring 325 runs. The San Diego Padres had a team on-base percentage of .333 and a team batting average of .257 for the previous season. The Padres had a SLG% of .466 and they had an average of 5.42 runs per game (3rd in baseball). They were called out on strikes on 479 occasions (25th in the league) and had 506 hits.

The San Diego pitching staff relinquished 241 runs last season while holding a team ERA of 3.86 (223 earned runs surrendered). They allowed 70 homers and they allowed 4.17 runs per 9 innings (7th in MLB). The Padres had a team WHIP of 1.204 and had a FIP of 3.88 as a staff during the previous year. Their K/BB ratio was 3.32 (565 strikeouts against 170 free passes). They finished at 20th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 456. San Diego had relievers step onto the mound in 67 save situations and they walked away with 13 saves. They were ranked 22nd in the league holding a save percentage of 54.2%, and they dispatched 218 relievers to the hill last season. Their relief pitchers came into 61 games with high leverage and 63 outings with runners on. San Diego bullpen pitchers held an inherited score rate of 26.0% of 93 inherited base runners. With 24 save opportunities, the Padres earned 42 holds and also 11 blown saves.

Snell had a K/BB ratio of 3.5 with 63 total K's and an ERA+ of 128. He pitched in 50.0 innings last year while surrendering 7.6 H/9. Snell gave up 42 base knocks while surrendering 18 ER's (3.24 ERA). His WHIP was at 1.20 and he held a FIP of 4.35 last season. Thus far in his career, Snell has allowed 456 base hits while accumulating 648 punch outs in 556 innings. He has given up a total of 200 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.237 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.5. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.79 and he has faced 2,292 hitters during his career. Snell (42-30 mark in his career) has a 3.24 earned run average while allowing 7.4 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game ATS?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take San Diego (-225)

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