Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 4/3/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

Date: Saturday, April 3, 2021

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Odds/Point Spread: Arizona (+145) San Diego (-222)

Joe Musgrove and the San Diego Padres (37-23, 2nd in NL West last season) play the Arizona Diamondbacks (25-35, 5th in NL West last year) at Petco Park on Saturday. The Diamondbacks open this contest at +145 while the Padres are coming in at -222. The over/under is set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound are Caleb Smith and Joe Musgrove.

As a team, the Arizona Diamondbacks put up 4.5 runs per contest last year, which had them sitting at 18th in baseball. They had a total of 269 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .312. The Diamondbacks earned 101 doubles as a unit and smacked 58 balls out of the park. They earned 255 RBI's in addition to 482 base knocks in the previous season, and their team batting average came in at .241. Arizona was slugging .391 and were called out on strikes 461 times, while being walked on 181 occasions.

The Diamondbacks had a team ERA of 4.85 last year (20th in the league), and they struck out 524 batters. They earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.23 and the pitching staff had a collective WHIP of 1.43. Diamondbacks pitchers allowed 93 long balls and also 295 runs in total (14th in the league). They walked 235 opposing batters and their FIP came in at 4.99 as a team for the prior year. The Diamondbacks sent 200 relievers to the mound over the course of the prior season. The relief pitchers inherited 96 runners over the course of last season with 31.3% of those runners crossed the plate. They compiled 13 saves last season and did not convert 9 out of their 22 chances to get a save. The Diamondbacks bullpen accumulated a save rate of 59.1% and entered the game in 44 save situations. The relief pitchers tallied 21 holds last season (26th in MLB). Diamondbacks bullpen pitchers came into the game with runners on base in 62 games as well as 53 contests with high leverage.

Smith held a FIP of 5.01 and he earned an ERA+ of 192. Caleb Smith surrendered 5 base hits in 11 innings in which he pitched last year. He conceded 3 ER's throughout last year and had a K/BB ratio of 2.0. He gave up 4.1 hits per nine innings and he earned a WHIP of 1. His earned run average was at 2.45 and he fanned 12 batters. Smith has taken the ball for 263 innings and has earned 289 K's in his MLB career. His ERA is 4.55 (133 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.265. He has given up 218 base knocks (7.5 hits per nine innings) and has 115 walks. Smith (15-18 mark in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 4.88 while he has faced 1,118 batters during his time in the majors.

San Diego had a total of 95 long balls last year and 312 RBIs. They hit 103 two-baggers, while walking 204 times and putting up 325 runs. The San Diego Padres had a team OBP of .333 and a batting average of .257 last season. The Padres held a team slugging percentage of .466 and they tallied 5.42 runs per contest (3rd in baseball). They were called out on strikes on 479 occasions (25th in MLB) and were sitting with 506 base knocks.

The San Diego pitching staff surrendered 241 runs over the course of the prior season while having an ERA of 3.86 (223 earned runs surrendered). They gave up 70 HR's and they conceded 4.17 runs per 9 innings (7th in the league). The Padres had a WHIP of 1.204 in addition to having a FIP of 3.88 as a pitching staff for the prior year. Their strikeout to walk ratio was 3.32 (565 strikeouts vs 170 walks). They were sitting at 20th in the league as a staff in total hits given up with 456. Wrapping up the year with 24 save chances, the Padres accrued 42 holds in addition to 11 blown saves. San Diego had relievers enter the contest in 67 save situations and they tallied 13 saves. Their relief pitchers stepped onto the mound in 61 games with high leverage and 63 games with base runners. San Diego relievers held an inherited score percentage of 26.0% out of 93 inherited runners. They were ranked 22nd in the league holding a save rate of 54.2%, and they dispatched 218 relievers onto the field last season.

Musgrove earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.4 with 55 total K's and he was the owner of an ERA+ of 118. He pitched in 39.2 innings last season while conceding 7.5 H/9. Musgrove allowed 33 total hits while he surrendered 17 earned runs (3.86 ERA). His WHIP was 1.24 and he held a FIP of 3.42 last year. In his pro baseball career, Musgrove has surrendered 490 base knocks while accumulating 465 strikeouts in 496 innings. Musgrove (29-38 career mark) has earned a 4.33 ERA while allowing 8.9 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded 239 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.232 and having a FIP of 3.9. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.81 and he has gone up against 2,088 hitters so far in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take San Diego (-222)

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