Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Prediction, 7/30/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds
Game: Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets
Date: Friday, July 30, 2021
Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY
Odds/Point Spread: Cincinnati (+125) New York (-156)
Carlos Carrasco and the New York Mets (54-46, 1st in NL East) host the Cincinnati Reds (53-49, 2nd in NL Central) at Citi Field on Friday. The Mets open this matchup at -156 while the Reds are coming in at +125. The over/under opens at 8.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Sonny Gray and Carlos Carrasco.
As a unit, the Cincinnati Reds are compiling 4.9 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 7th in the league. They are sitting with 497 runs and hold an OBP of .332. The Reds have compiled 177 two-baggers as a squad and have knocked 130 balls out of the park. They have recorded 474 runs batted in as well as 863 hits this season, and their team batting average is .250. Cincinnati is slugging .419 and have been rung up 914 times, while drawing a walk on 356 occasions.
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The Reds have an earned run average of 4.58 this season (21st in the league), and their staff has rung up 982 hitters. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.31 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.40. Reds pitchers have conceded 136 long balls and 508 runs in total (25th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 426 opposing players and their FIP is 4.50 as a team this year.
The Reds relievers have earned a save percentage of 58.0% and has entered the game in 97 save situations. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 177 base runners on the campaign and 40.1% of those runners crossed the plate. Reds relief pitchers have entered the game with opponents on base 119 times in addition to having 131 appearances in high leverage situations. The Reds have sent 380 relief pitchers to the mound for the season. The relievers have tallied 45 holds so far this year (23rd in MLB). They have compiled 29 saves on the campaign and have blown 21 out of their 50 chances to save the game.
The Reds have turned 68.6% of balls in play into outs out of their 8,190 innings, ranking them 24th in pro baseball. The Cincinnati Reds have a tally of 2,730 putouts thus far, in addition to 885 assists and 63 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .983 which ranks 23rd in professional baseball, and have accumulated 656 double plays.
Gray has taken the mound for 1,202 innings and has totaled 1,155 K's in his career. His ERA is 3.59 (480 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.231. He has given up 1,049 hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) and has had 431 free passes. Gray (77-69 career record) holds a FIP of 3.68 while going up against 5,020 hitters during his time in the major leagues.
The New York Mets have earned a team OBP of .316 and a team batting average of .236 so far this season. They have struck out on 847 occasions (23rd in the league) and have tallied 744 base hits. New York has a total of 110 home runs on the campaign to go along with 371 RBIs. The Mets hold a team SLG% of .387 and they tally 3.86 runs per outing (28th in baseball). They have put up 131 two-baggers, while getting a free base 315 times as well as putting up 386 runs.
The Mets have a WHIP of 1.208 and have a FIP of 3.76 as a team this season. They are sitting at 3rd in MLB as a staff in total hits conceded with 726. The New York pitching staff have yielded 381 runs this season and come in with a team ERA of 3.56 (333 earned runs surrendered). They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.12 (909 strikeouts against 291 bases on balls). They have conceded 103 long balls and they surrender 4.07 runs per 9 innings (9th in the league).
New York bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 33.3% out of 120 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 102 times in high leverage situations in addition to 78 occasions with runners on. With 94 save situations, the Mets have recorded 47 holds and also 16 blown saves. They rank 9th in the league with a save rate of 65.2%, and they have dispatched 315 relief pitchers to the hill on the season. New York has had relievers step onto the mound in 46 save opportunities and they have walked away with 30 saves.
The New York Mets have turned 76 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .984 (14th in MLB). The Mets have accrued 800 assists, 53 errors and have amassed 2,527 putouts on the campaign. Out of their 7,581 innings played, the Mets are sitting with a efficiency on defense of 69.7% (13th in MLB).
In his pro baseball career, Carrasco has conceded 1,165 base hits and he has 1,305 strikeouts in 1,242 innings pitched. Carrasco (88-73 career win-loss mark) has earned a 3.77 earned run average and has surrendered 8.4 hits per nine innings. He has given up 520 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.196 and a FIP of 3.4. His K/BB ratio is 4.07 and he has faced 5,115 hitters thus far in his career.
Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+125)
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