Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 9/4/2021 MLB Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres

Date: Saturday, September 4, 2021

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (-116) San Diego (-105)

Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros (78-55, 1st in AL West) travel to Petco Park on Saturday where they'll meet the San Diego Padres (71-63, 3rd in NL West). The Astros open this game at -116 while the Padres are priced at -105. The over/under opens at 7.5. The men taking the mound are Framber Valdez and Joe Musgrove.

As a team, the Houston Astros are knocking in 5.3 runs per game, which puts them at 2nd in baseball. They have a total of 699 runs scored and hold an OBP of .339. The Astros have hit 249 two-baggers as a unit and have smacked 169 baseballs out of the park. They have amassed 672 runs batted in and 1,223 hits over the course of the season, and their team batting average is sitting at .267. Houston has a slugging rate of .437 and have struck out 1,007 times, while drawing a walk on 466 occasions.

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Astros pitchers have yielded 156 long balls and 527 total runs (5th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 433 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 4.07 as a unit on the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.80 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.21. The Astros have compiled a team ERA of 3.66 so far this season (5th in baseball), and they have rung up 1,213 batters.

The Astros have dispatched 408 relievers to the hill on the year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 165 runners for the season with 36.4% of those runners ended up crossing the plate. They have compiled 29 saves on the season and have blown 20 of 49 chances to get a save. The Astros relief pitchers have accumulated a save rate of 59.2% and has come into the game in 107 save situations. The relievers have recorded 57 holds over the course of the season (22nd in the league). Astros bullpen pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 112 times as well as having 126 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Houston Astros have amassed 3,552 putouts this year, as well as 1,149 assists and 53 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .989 which puts them in 1st in pro baseball, and have accumulated 966 double plays. The Astros have transformed 71.6% of balls in play into outs out of their 10,656 innings on the field, which has them sitting 2nd in MLB.

Valdez has pitched in 283 innings and has earned 277 K's during his career. His ERA is 3.72 (117 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.309. He has given up 244 hits (7.8 hits per 9 innings) and has 127 walks. Valdez (22-15 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 3.94 while he has faced 1,213 hitters in the major leagues.

San Diego is sitting with 156 home runs so far this year as well as 586 RBIs. They have 214 two-baggers, while taking a walk 502 times as well as recording 616 runs. The San Diego Padres have accumulated a team on-base percentage of .323 in addition to a team batting average of .242 on the season. The Padres have a SLG% of .403 and they tally 4.60 runs per game (11th in MLB). They have been rung up on 1,106 occasions (22nd in MLB) and have 1,075 base hits.

The San Diego pitching staff have conceded 548 runs this season while having a team ERA of 3.77 (499 earned runs surrendered). They have surrendered 157 long balls and they allow 4.14 runs per 9 innings (9th in the league). The Padres are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.233 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.96 as a squad on the season. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 3.07 (1,283 strikeouts vs 418 walks). They have a ranking of 14th in baseball as a staff in total hits allowed with 1,049.

San Diego bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 31.6% out of their 133 inherited runners. Their relievers have taken the field 125 times in high leverage situations and on 92 occasions with runners on base. Sitting with 144 save situations, the Padres have tallied 81 holds and 21 blown saves. They rank 9th in MLB with a save rate of 65.6%, and they have dispatched 508 relief pitchers to the hill for the year. San Diego has had relievers take the mound in 61 save chances and they have tallied 40 saves.

The San Diego Padres have turned 119 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .986 (11th in the majors). The Padres have accrued 1,185 assists, 69 errors and have a total of 3,570 putouts so far this season. In 10,710 innings played, the Padres have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 69.5% (18th in pro baseball).

In his career, Musgrove has allowed 598 base hits while he has accumulated 634 K's in 645 innings pitched. He has surrendered 286 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.177 and a FIP of 3.8. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.94 and he has faced 2,690 batters thus far in his career. Musgrove (38-46 win-loss record in his career) has earned a 3.99 earned run average while surrendering 8.3 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Houston (-116)

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