Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 5/17/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Saturday, May 17, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (+125) Boston (-150)

Fenway Park is where the Boston Red Sox (22-23) will try to beat the Atlanta Braves (21-22) on Saturday. The odds on this game have Atlanta at +125 while Boston is priced at -150. The total comes in at 9. The expected starting pitchers are Grant Holmes and Lucas Giolito.

The Braves have accounted for 62 doubles as a unit and have knocked 44 baseballs out of the park. Atlanta owns a slugging percentage of .381 and have struck out 366 times, while being walked on 143 occasions. As a squad, the Atlanta Braves are earning 4.0 runs/g, which has them sitting at 22nd in the league. They have recorded 162 runs batted in and 349 base knocks on the season, while their batting average comes in at .240. They have accounted for 170 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .312.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 2.61 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.24. Braves pitchers have conceded 49 long balls and 169 total runs (8th in the league). Atlanta has surrendered 328 hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and also 159 earned runs. The Braves have an ERA of 3.76 over the course of the season (11th in MLB), and their staff has struck out 373 hitters. They have walked 143 opposing players and their FIP sits at 4.05 as a team over the course of the season.

Braves relief pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 46 times and also have had 56 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers are sitting with 21 holds this year (22nd in baseball). The Braves relievers have recorded a save rate of 47.1% and have stepped onto the mound in 38 save situations. They have accumulated 8 saves this year and have not converted 9 of 17 chances to save the game. The relief pitchers have inherited 59 base runners on the campaign with 30.5% of them ended up scoring. The Braves have dispatched 135 relievers to the mound this season.

The Braves have converted 71.3% of balls in play into outs in their 3,426 innings on the field, which ranks them 9th in professional baseball. The Athletics have earned 1,142 putouts this season, as well as 391 assists and 18 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .988 which has them sitting 9th in baseball, and have accumulated 32 double plays.

Holmes has taken the hill for 113 innings and has tallied 114 strikeouts in his career. Holmes (4-4 career mark) holds a FIP of 3.76 and he has faced 468 opposing hitters during his time in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.81 (48 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.192. He has surrendered 99 hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) and has 36 free passes.

Boston has compiled 56 home runs this season to go along with 211 runs batted in. They have put up 82 doubles, while getting a free base 153 times as well as putting up 221 runs. The Boston Red Sox hold an OBP of .326 and a team batting average of .255 this season. The Red Sox hold a team slugging percentage of .421 and they score 4.91 runs per game (6th in the league). They have struck out on 416 occasions (2nd in the league) and have earned 401 base knocks.

The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.305 and have a FIP of 3.75 as a pitching staff over the course of the season. They have a ranking of 27th in the league as a staff in total hits given up with 392. The Boston pitching staff have conceded 206 runs so far this year while having a team ERA of 4.00 (179 earned runs surrendered). Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 8.40 (376 strikeouts vs 134 bases on balls). They have surrendered 42 home runs and they surrender 4.60 runs per 9 innings (23rd in MLB).

Boston has called on relief pitchers to step onto the hill in 21 save opportunities and they have tallied 10 saves. They sit at 27th in the league with a save rate of 47.6%, and they have sent 139 relief pitchers to the mound this year. Their relief pitchers have come in 52 times in high leverage situations in addition to 38 occasions with base runners. Boston relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 37.5% of 48 inherited runners. With 35 save situations, the Red Sox have compiled 13 holds and also 11 blown saves.

In 3,633 innings on the diamond, the Red Sox have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 67.4% (29th in baseball). The Boston Red Sox have gotten 38 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .976 (30th in professional baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 402 assists, 39 errors and have accounted for 1,211 putouts on the campaign.

So far in his pro baseball career, Giolito has allowed 903 hits while tallying 1,091 strikeouts in 1,029 frames. He has surrendered 509 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.255 and a FIP of 4.4. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.80 and he has gone up against 4,328 opposing hitters during his career. Giolito (62-63 career win-loss mark) has earned a 4.45 earned run average while giving up 7.9 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (-150)

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