Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 5/18/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Sunday, May 18, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (-128) Boston (+106)

Fenway Park is the location where the Boston Red Sox (22-23) will try to defeat the Atlanta Braves (22-22) on Sunday. The line on this matchup has the Braves at -128 and the Red Sox are sitting at +106. The over/under comes in at 8.5. The starting pitchers will be Spencer Schwellenbach and Brayan Bello.

The Braves have accumulated 63 doubles as a squad and have hit 44 balls out of the park. Atlanta has a slugging percentage of .380 and have been rung up 373 times, while taking a walk on 144 occasions. As a squad, the Atlanta Braves are knocking in 4.0 runs per game, which ranks them 21st in the league. They have 167 runs batted in in addition to 358 hits this season, while their team batting average comes in at .241. They have notched a total of 175 runs scored and hold an OBP of .312.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 2.60 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.24. Braves pitchers have given up 50 home runs and also 171 runs in total (9th in the league). Atlanta has surrendered 335 hits (7.7 per 9 innings) as well as 160 earned runs. The Braves have an ERA of 3.70 on the season (11th in MLB), and the staff has rung up 379 batters. They have walked 146 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.06 as a team on the year.

Braves pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 46 times and also have had 56 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have a total of 23 holds this season (19th in baseball). The Braves relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 50.0% and have come into the game in 41 save situations. They have recorded 9 saves this season and have missed out on 9 of their 18 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 59 runners so far this year and 30.5% of them earned a run for their team. The Braves have sent 138 relievers to the hill this year.

The Athletics are sitting with 1,169 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 406 assists and 19 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .988 which has them sitting 9th in the majors, and they have turned 35 double plays. The Braves have turned 71.3% of baseballs in play into outs in their 3,507 innings on the field, which has them sitting 9th in the majors.

Schwellenbach has taken the ball for 177 innings and has earned 173 K's in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 3.35 (66 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.055. He has surrendered 153 base knocks (7.8 hits per 9 innings) and has 34 free passes. Schwellenbach (10-10 career win-loss record) holds a FIP of 3.30 while he has gone up against 721 batters in the majors.

Boston has 56 home runs this season to go along with 211 RBIs. They have 82 two-baggers, while getting a free base 153 times as well as scoring 221 runs. The Boston Red Sox have a team on-base percentage of .326 and a team batting average of .255 for the year. The Red Sox have a team slugging percentage of .421 and they tally 4.91 runs per game (6th in the league). They have struck out on 416 instances (2nd in MLB) and have earned 401 base knocks.

The Red Sox are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.305 in addition to having a FIP of 3.73 as a team over the course of the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.40 (376 strikeouts against 134 walks). They are sitting at 26th in the league as a staff in total hits conceded with 392. They have relinquished 42 homers and they surrender 4.60 runs per 9 innings (22nd in MLB). The Boston pitching staff have surrendered 206 runs this season while holding an ERA of 4.00 (179 earned runs surrendered).

Boston bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 37.5% out of their 48 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 52 times in high leverage situations and also on 38 occasions with runners on. With 35 save situations, the Red Sox have 13 holds and also 11 blown saves. They sit at 28th in baseball with a save rate of 47.6%, and they have sent 139 relievers to the hill so far this year. Boston has called on relievers to step onto the hill in 21 save opportunities and they have earned 10 saves.

The Boston Red Sox have turned 38 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .976 (30th in pro baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 402 assists, 39 errors and have accumulated 1,211 putouts over the course of the season. In 3,633 innings played, the Red Sox hold a defensive efficiency of 67.4% (29th in the majors).

In his career, Bello has surrendered 421 base knocks while he has earned 357 K's in 403 innings pitched. He has allowed 192 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.416 and having a FIP of 4.2. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.38 and he has gone up against 1,753 opposing hitters in his career. Bello (30-27 career mark) holds a 4.29 earned run average while allowing 9.4 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (+106)

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