Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 7/31/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Thursday, July 31, 2025

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (+126) Cincinnati (-152)

The Cincinnati Reds (56-52) are hosting the Atlanta Braves (45-61) at Great American Ball Park on Thursday. The moneyline on this game has Atlanta at +126 and Cincinnati is opening at -152. The total comes in at 9. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Carlos Carrasco and Andrew Abbott.

Atlanta has a slugging percentage of .389 and have been called out on strikes 911 times, while taking a walk on 378 occasions. They have accounted for 424 RBI's as well as 860 hits this year, while their team batting average sits at .242. The Braves have hit 156 doubles as a unit and have hit 115 balls out of the stadium. They have tallied 437 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .318. As a squad, the Atlanta Braves are scoring 4.2 runs per outing, which has them sitting at 22nd in baseball.

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The Braves are sitting with a team ERA of 4.17 this year (20th in the league), and their staff has struck out 952 hitters. Braves pitchers have allowed 123 home runs and also 457 runs (16th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 352 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 4.05 as a team on the season. Atlanta has surrendered 835 base knocks (8.1 per 9 innings) in addition to 430 earned runs. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.70 and their pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.28.

The Braves have dispatched 339 relief pitchers to the hill for the year. The relief pitchers have inherited 146 base runners this year with 38.4% of those runners earned a run for their team. They have earned 15 saves for the season and have blown 16 of their 31 chances to save the game. The Braves bullpen have a save percentage of 48.4% and have entered the game in 70 save situations. The relievers have tallied 39 holds on the year (30th in the league). Braves bullpen pitchers have come into the game with runners on base 107 times as well as having 104 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Athletics are sitting with 2,786 putouts on the campaign, as well as 902 assists and 36 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .990 which is 2nd in baseball, and have a total of 70 double plays. The Braves have converted 70.1% of baseballs in play into outs out of 8,358 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 13th in professional baseball.

Carrasco (112-105 career mark) has earned a FIP of 4.12 while he has gone up against 7,003 hitters during his time in the majors. He has surrendered 1,651 base knocks (8.9 hits per 9 innings) and has 461 free passes. His earned run average is 4.18 (777 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.262. Carrasco has thrown 1,673 innings and has racked up 1,687 strikeouts during his pro baseball career.

The Cincinnati Reds have an on-base percentage of .320 and a team batting average of .246 on the season. They have been called out on strikes on 917 occasions (9th in baseball) and have recorded 882 base hits. Cincinnati has a total of 109 HRs this year as well as 456 RBIs. The Reds have a team slugging percentage of .392 and they average 4.55 runs per outing (11th in baseball). They have notched 168 doubles, while walking 359 times and notching 487 runs.

The Cincinnati pitching staff have conceded 445 runs on the campaign while having a team ERA of 3.86 (405 earned runs given up). They have conceded 120 home runs and they give up 4.24 runs per 9 innings (12th in MLB). The Reds are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.236 with a FIP of 4.08 as a staff for the year. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.40 (880 strikeouts vs 336 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 7th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 831.

Sitting with 106 save situations, the Reds have 67 holds and 12 blown saves. Cincinnati has had relievers enter the game in 37 save chances and they have come away with 25 saves. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 91 times in high leverage situations and on 88 occasions with base runners. Cincinnati relievers have an inherited score percentage of 33.1% out of 139 inherited runners. They sit at 8th in the league with a save rate of 67.6%, and they have sent 360 relievers to the mound so far this year.

Out of their 8,502 innings played, the Reds hold a defensive efficiency of 71.4% (3rd in the majors). The Cincinnati Reds have gotten 63 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .985 (20th in MLB). The Reds have 808 assists, 54 errors and have accounted for 2,834 putouts during this campaign.

Thus far in his career, Abbott has surrendered 310 base knocks and he has 329 strikeouts in 350 frames. He has surrendered 128 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.239 and a FIP of 3.2. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.65 and he has gone up against 1,462 batters in his pro baseball career. Abbott (26-17 career record) is the owner of a 3.29 earned run average while conceding 8.0 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cincinnati (-152)

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