Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 5/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (+106) Philadelphia (-128)

The Atlanta Braves (25-27) are traveling to Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday where they will go up against the Philadelphia Phillies (34-19). The line on this matchup has Atlanta at +106 and Philadelphia is priced at -128. The over/under comes in at 8. The pitchers taking the mound are AJ Smith-Shawver and Zack Wheeler.

The Braves have earned 74 doubles as a unit and have hit 56 balls out of the park. Atlanta owns a slugging percentage of .392 and have struck out 439 times, while drawing a walk on 174 occasions. As a team, the Atlanta Braves are recording 4.2 runs per game, which ranks them 18th in MLB. They have 207 runs batted in and 437 hits on the season, and their team batting average sits at .248. They have accounted for 216 runs scored and have an OBP of .319.

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They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.60 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.23. Braves pitchers have given up 60 home runs in addition to 205 runs in total (11th in MLB). Atlanta has allowed 400 base hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and 191 earned runs. The Braves are sitting with a team ERA of 3.74 on the campaign (14th in MLB), and the staff has rung up 437 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 168 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 4.09 as a unit on the season.

Braves pitchers have come into the game with players on base 51 times as well as having 64 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have earned 26 holds on the campaign (26th in the league). The Braves bullpen have a save rate of 50.0% and have entered the game in 46 save situations. They have 10 saves this season and have blown 10 of 20 save chances. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 65 runners so far this year with 35.4% of them ended up scoring. The Braves have dispatched 161 relievers to the hill for the season.

The Braves have turned 71.4% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 4,140 innings on the field, which has them ranked 8th in MLB. The Athletics have a total of 1,380 putouts for the season, as well as 476 assists and 22 errors. Their fielding rate is holding at .988 which is 6th in baseball, and they have turned 37 double plays.

Smith-Shawver has taken the mound for 70 innings and has totaled 65 strikeouts so far in his career. Smith-Shawver (4-2 career win-loss record) has earned a FIP of 3.65 while he has gone up against 304 batters during his time in the majors. His ERA is 3.71 (29 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.307. He has given up 59 base knocks (7.5 hits per 9 innings) and has 33 free passes.

The Philadelphia Phillies have accumulated an OBP of .336 and a batting average of .261 on the campaign. They have been rung up on 416 occasions (22nd in the league) and have tallied 475 hits. Philadelphia has 58 home runs on the season as well as 246 RBIs. The Phillies hold a slugging % of .411 and they average 4.91 runs per game (6th in baseball). They have put up 84 two-baggers, while taking a walk 197 times as well as racking up 260 runs.

The Philadelphia pitching staff have conceded 218 runs this year while having an ERA of 3.72 (197 earned runs surrendered). They have surrendered 52 homers and they allow 4.12 runs per 9 innings (13th in baseball). The Phillies are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.258 and have a FIP of 3.39 as a pitching staff this year. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 9.80 (520 strikeouts against 155 free passes). They come in at 17th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 444.

Sitting with 57 save situations, the Phillies have 29 holds and also 9 blown saves. Philadelphia has had relievers step onto the mound in 27 save chances and they have walked away with 18 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 58 times in high leverage situations and on 35 occasions with runners on. Philadelphia relievers have an inherited score percentage of 32.0% out of their 50 inherited base runners. They are ranked 9th in the league with a save rate of 66.7%, and they have sent 169 relief pitchers to the hill this season.

The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 37 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .989 (4th in the majors). The Phillies have accrued 457 assists, 21 errors and have a tally of 1,430 putouts so far this year. In 4,290 innings played, the Phillies have a defensive efficiency of 67.9% (25th in the majors).

In his career, Wheeler has allowed 1,416 hits and he has 1,713 K's in 1,648 innings pitched. Wheeler (109-71 career win-loss mark) has a 3.30 ERA and has given up 7.7 hits per nine innings. He has surrendered 604 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.145 and a FIP of 3.2. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.64 and he has gone up against 6,770 opposing batters in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Atlanta (+106)

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