Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, 5/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025

Location: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA

TV: SportsNet Pittsburgh

Odds/Point Spread: Atlanta (-128) Pittsburgh (+106)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-26) are welcoming the Atlanta Braves (18-19) at PNC Park on Sunday. The moneyline on this matchup has Atlanta at -128 while Pittsburgh is coming in at +106. The betting total comes in at 8. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Chris Sale and Carmen Mlodzinski.

Atlanta has a slugging percentage of .386 and have been called out on strikes 322 times, while taking a walk on 125 occasions. They have accumulated 143 runs batted in as well as 300 hits over the course of the season, while their average at the plate sits at .240. The Braves have compiled 52 doubles as a squad and have knocked 41 baseballs out of the park. They have tallied 149 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .312. As a team, the Atlanta Braves are earning 4.0 runs per game, which has them sitting at 18th in MLB.

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The Braves are sitting with a team ERA of 4.00 this year (17th in the league), and their staff has rung up 323 hitters. Braves pitchers have given up 45 home runs and also 150 runs in total (10th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 127 opposing players and their FIP is 4.19 as a team on the campaign. Atlanta has relinquished 281 base hits (7.8 per 9 innings) as well as 145 earned runs. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.54 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.25.

Braves pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 38 times and also have had 46 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have 14 holds for the year (25th in MLB). The Braves relievers have compiled a save rate of 53.8% and stepped onto the hill in 27 save situations. They have earned 7 saves over the course of the season and have not converted 6 out of their 13 chances to save the game. The relief pitchers have inherited 50 runners for the year and 34.0% of those players crossed home plate. The Braves have dispatched 117 relief pitchers to the hill this year.

The Athletics have earned 979 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 329 assists and 13 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .990 which puts them in 1st in professional baseball, and have accumulated 26 double plays. The Braves have converted 71.7% of baseballs in play into outs in their 2,937 innings, which ranks them 8th in pro baseball.

Sale has taken the hill for 2,000 innings and has earned 2,470 punch outs thus far in his career. His ERA is 3.06 (680 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.051. He has given up 1,636 base hits (7.4 hits per nine innings) with 466 walks. Sale (139-86 career mark) holds a FIP of 3.01 and he has gone up against 8,064 batters during his time in the majors.

The Pirates have a SLG% of .325 and they average 3.11 runs per outing (30th in MLB). They have 44 doubles, while walking 135 times as well as putting up 118 runs. Pittsburgh has knocked in 26 long balls so far this year to go along with 116 RBIs. They have been called out on strikes on 322 occasions (12th in the league) and have earned 274 hits. The Pittsburgh Pirates have recorded an on-base percentage of .300 in addition to a team batting average of .219 this year.

The Pirates are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.278 and have a FIP of 4.01 as a team this year. Their K/BB ratio is 7.50 (283 strikeouts against 119 free passes). They sit at 19th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 313. They have conceded 36 dingers and they concede 4.66 runs per 9 innings (21st in MLB). The Pittsburgh pitching staff have allowed 175 runs on the season while holding a team ERA of 4.31 (162 earned runs conceded).

Pittsburgh has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 13 save chances and they have tallied 7 saves. They are ranked 25th in the league holding a save rate of 53.8%, and they have sent 126 relief pitchers onto the field so far this year. Their relievers have taken the field 38 times in high leverage situations in addition to 37 occasions with runners on. Pittsburgh bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 32.2% of 59 inherited runners. Sitting with 32 save situations, the Pirates have recorded 19 holds and also 6 blown saves.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten 36 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .981 (26th in baseball). The Pirates have accrued 347 assists, 27 errors and have earned a total of 1,015 putouts so far this season. In 3,045 innings played, the Pirates hold a defensive efficiency of 69.8% (16th in professional baseball).

In his career, Mlodzinski has given up 110 hits while earning 104 strikeouts in 116 innings pitched. He has surrendered 49 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.349 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.7. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.21 and he has gone up against 501 hitters in his MLB career. Mlodzinski (9-11 record in his career) holds a 3.79 ERA and has surrendered 8.5 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Atlanta (-128)

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