Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 8/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Monday, August 4, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Baltimore (+162) Philadelphia (-196)

Citizens Bank Park is the site where the Philadelphia Phillies (61-47) will try to beat the Baltimore Orioles (50-59) on Monday. The line on this contest has the Orioles at +162 and the Phillies are sitting at -196. The betting total is set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound will be Brandon Young and Jesus Luzardo.

As a unit, the Baltimore Orioles are notching 4.4 runs per game, which ranks them 13th in MLB. They have racked up 482 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .309. The Orioles have accrued 182 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 136 balls out of the stadium. They have accounted for 456 RBI's and 896 hits for the season, and their batting average is at .245. Baltimore is slugging .413 and have been called out on strikes 936 times, while being walked on 299 occasions.

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The Orioles are sitting with a team earned run average of 4.89 for the season (27th in MLB), and their staff has rung up 889 hitters. Orioles pitchers have yielded 153 home runs and 549 total runs (27th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 363 hitters and their FIP comes in at 4.57 as a squad for the year. Baltimore has given up 992 base hits (9.3 per 9 innings) as well as 521 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.45 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.41.

Orioles bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 113 times as well as having 113 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have a total of 76 holds this season (2nd in baseball). The Orioles bullpen have a save rate of 65.0% and have come into the game in 119 save situations. They have compiled 26 saves on the campaign and have blown 14 of their 40 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 151 base runners on the campaign and 19.9% of them earned a run for their team. The Orioles have dispatched 378 relievers to the mound on the season.

The Orioles have turned 68.0% of balls hit into play into outs out of 8,625 innings, ranking them 29th in pro baseball. The Atlanta Braves have a total of 2,875 putouts for the season, as well as 957 assists and 57 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .985 which ranks 20th in professional baseball, and they have turned 78 double plays.

Young has taken the mound for 36 innings and is sitting with 34 punch outs during his pro baseball career. His ERA is 6.71 (27 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.713. He has given up 46 base hits (11.4 hits per nine innings) and has had 16 free passes. Young (0-5 career win-loss mark) is the owner of a FIP of 6.61 and he has gone up against 166 hitters in the majors.

Philadelphia has tallied 126 home runs this year as well as 481 runs batted in. They have hit 174 doubles, while taking a walk 370 times and putting up 504 runs. The Philadelphia Phillies have tallied an OBP of .327 as well as a team batting average of .254 for the season. The Phillies hold a slugging % of .412 and they are recording 4.67 runs per game (9th in the league). They have struck out on 862 occasions (20th in baseball) and have notched a total of 935 base hits.

The Phillies hold a team WHIP of 1.258 in addition to having a FIP of 3.70 as a squad on the campaign. They are currently ranked 18th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 901. The Philadelphia pitching staff have given up 437 runs this year while holding a team ERA of 3.80 (406 earned runs allowed). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 9.30 (993 strikeouts against 308 walks). They have conceded 118 long balls and they concede 4.09 runs per 9 innings (9th in baseball).

Philadelphia relievers hold an inherited score rate of 32.7% out of their 104 inherited runners. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 111 times in high leverage situations and also on 72 occasions with base runners. With 93 save situations, the Phillies have recorded 48 holds and also 17 blown saves. They are ranked 18th in baseball with a save percentage of 61.4%, and they have sent 334 bullpen pitchers onto the field so far this season. Philadelphia has called on relievers to take the mound in 44 save opportunities and they have tallied 27 saves.

The Philadelphia Phillies have turned 72 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .989 (3rd in baseball). The Phillies have accrued 924 assists, 41 errors and have a total of 2,884 putouts so far this year. Out of their 8,652 innings played, the Phillies are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 68.8% (24th in MLB).

During his career, Luzardo has conceded 583 base knocks while tallying 699 strikeouts in 633 frames. He has given up a total of 302 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.275 and a FIP of 4.2. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.12 and he has gone up against 2,663 hitters so far in his pro baseball career. Luzardo (35-39 record in his career) holds a 4.29 earned run average while giving up 8.3 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Philadelphia (-196)

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