Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 7/18/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Friday, July 18, 2025

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (+120) Chicago (-144)

The Boston Red Sox (53-45) are on their way to Wrigley Field on Friday where they will take on the Chicago Cubs (57-39). The moneyline on this contest has the Red Sox at +120 and the Cubs are coming in at -144. The total has been set at 8.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Lucas Giolito and Colin Rea.

Boston has a slugging rate of .433 and have struck out 877 times, while taking a walk on 319 occasions. They have compiled 470 runs batted in in addition to 863 base knocks so far this season, and their average at the plate sits at .256. The Red Sox have accumulated 200 doubles as a team and have hit 122 baseballs out of the park. They have accumulated 491 runs while having a team OBP of .326. As a team, the Boston Red Sox are knocking in 5.0 runs per contest, which is 5th in the league.

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The Red Sox are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.79 on the year (12th in MLB), and their staff has struck out 822 hitters. Red Sox pitchers have surrendered 91 home runs and also 430 total runs (21st in MLB). They have walked 324 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 3.81 as a squad this year. Boston has yielded 816 hits (8.4 per 9 innings) and also 370 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.54 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.30.

The Red Sox relief pitchers have a save percentage of 59.1% and have stepped onto the mound in 98 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 132 runners for the season with 34.1% of those runners crossed home plate. Red Sox bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 97 times and also have had 119 appearances in high leverage situations. The Red Sox have sent 318 relievers to the mound this year. The bullpen are sitting with 52 holds for the season (19th in the league). They have 26 saves over the course of the season and have blown 18 of 44 chances to save the game.

The Red Sox have turned 68.5% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 7,908 innings, which ranks them 25th in MLB. The Baltimore Orioles have accounted for 2,636 putouts over the course of the season, as well as 908 assists and 78 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .978 which is 29th in the majors, and have accumulated 82 double plays.

Giolito (67-63 career mark) sits with a FIP of 4.30 while he has gone up against 4,555 opposing hitters in the majors. He has surrendered 954 base hits (7.9 hits per nine innings) with 406 walks. His earned run average is 4.36 (526 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.253. Giolito has thrown 1,085 frames and has earned 1,141 K's in his MLB career.

Chicago has a total of 142 long balls on the campaign as well as 501 RBIs. They have notched 166 doubles, while getting a free base 331 times and putting up 512 runs. The Chicago Cubs have recorded a team on-base percentage of .325 and a team batting average of .256 so far this year. The Cubs have a team slugging percentage of .446 and they are recording 5.33 runs per contest (2nd in the league). They have been rung up on 743 occasions (26th in the league) and have notched a total of 849 hits.

The Cubs have a WHIP of 1.228 in addition to having a FIP of 4.20 as a staff for the season. They are currently ranked 17th in the league as a staff in total hits allowed with 793. The Chicago pitching staff have conceded 393 runs on the campaign while holding an ERA of 3.84 (365 earned runs yielded). They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.60 (718 strikeouts vs 257 bases on balls). They have allowed 117 home runs and they allow 4.14 runs per 9 innings (14th in the league).

Chicago relievers have an inherited score percentage of 30.1% out of their 93 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 97 times in high leverage situations and on 68 occasions with runners on base. Sitting with 94 save situations, the Cubs have accumulated 58 holds in addition to 10 blown saves. They are currently ranked 5th in the league holding a save percentage of 69.7%, and they have dispatched 315 bullpen pitchers to the hill over the course of the season. Chicago has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 33 save opportunities and they have recorded 23 saves.

The Chicago Cubs have turned 79 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .989 (5th in MLB). The Cubs have accrued 813 assists, 38 errors and have accumulated 2,567 putouts on the campaign. Out of their 7,701 innings played, the Cubs are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 71.2% (6th in the majors).

So far in his career, Rea has allowed 525 hits and he has 431 punch outs in 538 innings pitched. Rea (33-23 career win-loss record) holds a 4.46 ERA and has allowed 8.8 hits per 9 innings. He has given up a total of 267 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.275 and a FIP of 4.4. His K/BB ratio is 2.68 and he has faced 2,285 hitters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (+120)

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