Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction, 10/1/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Date: Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Location: Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (+102) New York (-122)

Yankee Stadium is the location where the New York Yankees (94-68) will try to beat the Boston Red Sox (89-73) on Wednesday for the second game of the ALWC. The line on this matchup has the Red Sox at +102 while the Yankees are coming in at -122. The over/under is 8. The men taking the mound will be Brayan Bello and Carlos Rodon.

As a unit, the Boston Red Sox are scoring 4.9 runs per game, which has them sitting at 7th in MLB. They have earned a total of 786 runs while holding a team OBP of .324. The Red Sox have earned 324 two-baggers as a unit and have smacked 186 baseballs out of the park. They have compiled 748 RBI's and 1,414 hits for the year, while their team batting average comes in at .254. Boston has a slugging percentage of .421 and have been rung up 1,419 times, while being walked on 518 occasions.

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The Red Sox have compiled a team ERA of 3.70 over the course of the season (4th in MLB), and the staff has struck out 1,361 hitters. Red Sox pitchers have allowed 164 home runs and 676 total runs (10th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 530 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 3.98 as a team on the season. Boston has surrendered 1,333 hits (8.3 per 9 innings) and 596 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.57 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.29.

Red Sox bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 160 times in addition to having 192 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers are sitting with 86 holds over the course of the season (19th in the league). The Red Sox bullpen have a save percentage of 61.6% and have entered the game in 161 save situations. They have recorded 45 saves over the course of the season and have blown 28 of their 73 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 223 base runners over the course of the season with 33.2% of those players crossed home plate. The Red Sox have sent 536 relief pitchers to the hill this year.

The Red Sox have turned 69.1% of balls in play into outs out of their 13,035 innings, ranking them 22nd in MLB. The Baltimore Orioles have accounted for 4,345 putouts on the year, as well as 1,461 assists and 116 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .980 which puts them in 30th in professional baseball, and they have turned 131 double plays.

Bello has pitched in 542 innings and has earned 464 strikeouts so far in his career. Bello (39-36 career win-loss record) has earned a FIP of 4.04 while he has gone up against 2,338 opposing batters in the majors. His ERA is 4.10 (247 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.362. He has surrendered 544 base knocks (9.0 hits per nine innings) with 195 free passes.

The New York Yankees hold a team on-base percentage of .332 and a team batting average of .251 on the season. They have been called out on strikes on 1,463 occasions (3rd in MLB) and have notched a total of 1,371 base hits. New York has hit 274 long balls so far this season and 820 runs batted in. The Yankees hold a team SLG% of .455 and they earn 5.24 runs per contest (1st in the league). They have recorded 255 two-baggers, while getting a free base 639 times and putting up 849 runs.

The Yankees are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.248 and have a FIP of 4.00 as a team for the year. They are sitting at 4th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 1,239. The New York pitching staff have surrendered 685 runs for the year while holding a team ERA of 3.91 (625 earned runs surrendered). Their K/BB ratio comes in at 9.00 (1,440 strikeouts against 557 walks). They have conceded 175 dingers and they allow 4.28 runs per 9 innings (14th in the league).

With 166 save situations, the Yankees have earned 100 holds in addition to 21 blown saves. New York has called on relief pitchers to enter the game in 64 save opportunities and they have tallied 43 saves. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 165 times in high leverage situations and also on 167 occasions with runners on. New York relievers have an inherited score percentage of 27.5% of 255 inherited base runners. They rank 7th in baseball holding a save rate of 67.2%, and they have dispatched 533 bullpen pitchers to the hill for the season.

In their 12,957 innings played, the Yankees hold a defensive efficiency of 70.8% (6th in pro baseball). The New York Yankees have turned 105 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (24th in the majors). The Yankees have racked up 1,389 assists, 94 errors and have earned 4,319 putouts during this campaign.

Rodon (93-72 record in his career) has earned a 3.74 earned run average and has allowed 7.6 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.95 and he has faced 5,378 opposing hitters so far in his career. He has conceded a total of 532 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.219 and having a FIP of 3.7. During his pro baseball career, Rodon has allowed 1,085 base hits while accumulating 1,409 punch outs in 1,281 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (+102)

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