Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 7/21/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Monday, July 21, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (+125) Philadelphia (-145)

Citizens Bank Park is the location where the Philadelphia Phillies (55-41) will try to beat the Boston Red Sox (53-45) on Monday. The moneyline on this contest has Boston at +125 while Philadelphia is sitting at -145. The total comes in at 9. The pitchers who are expected to start are Richard Fitts and Zack Wheeler.

Boston has a slugging percentage of .433 and have struck out 877 times, while taking a walk on 319 occasions. They have earned 470 RBI's and 863 hits so far this year, while their team batting average is at .256. The Red Sox have accumulated 200 doubles as a team and have smacked 122 balls out of the stadium. They have tallied 491 runs scored and hold an OBP of .326. As a team, the Boston Red Sox are notching 5.0 runs per game, which has them sitting at 5th in MLB.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.54 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.30. Red Sox pitchers have surrendered 91 long balls in addition to 430 runs in total (21st in baseball). Boston has surrendered 816 base knocks (8.4 per 9 innings) and 370 earned runs. The Red Sox hold a team ERA of 3.79 on the campaign (12th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 822 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 324 batters and their FIP sits at 3.81 as a unit on the season.

The Red Sox bullpen have a save percentage of 59.1% and have stepped onto the mound in 98 save situations. The relievers have inherited 132 runners so far this year with 34.1% of those runners earned a run for their team. Red Sox relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with opponents on base 97 times in addition to having 121 appearances in high leverage situations. The Red Sox have dispatched 318 relievers to the hill so far this year. The relief pitchers have earned 52 holds on the year (19th in baseball). They have compiled 26 saves for the year and have not converted 18 of 44 save chances.

The Baltimore Orioles have earned 2,636 putouts this year, in addition to 908 assists and 78 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .978 which is 29th in the majors, and they have turned 82 double plays. The Red Sox have turned 68.5% of balls hit into play into outs out of 7,908 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 25th in professional baseball.

Fitts has thrown 53 innings and is sitting with 37 punch outs in his MLB career. Fitts (1-4 career win-loss record) sits with a FIP of 3.32 while going up against 228 opposing hitters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.37 (20 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.255. He has surrendered 50 hits (8.4 hits per nine innings) and has 17 walks.

Philadelphia has recorded 102 long balls over the course of the season to go along with 416 RBIs. They have tallied 152 doubles, while walking 331 times and putting up 438 runs. The Philadelphia Phillies have accounted for a team OBP of .329 as well as a batting average of .255 so far this year. The Phillies have a slugging percentage of .404 and they are recording 4.56 runs per outing (12th in MLB). They have been called out on strikes on 762 occasions (21st in baseball) and have a total of 833 base knocks.

The Philadelphia pitching staff have conceded 375 runs this season while having a team ERA of 3.66 (347 earned runs yielded). They have surrendered 95 dingers and they surrender 3.96 runs per 9 innings (4th in the league). The Phillies have a WHIP of 1.251 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.55 as a team on the season. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 9.30 (878 strikeouts vs 278 bases on balls). They are sitting at 16th in baseball as a staff in total hits relinquished with 789.

Sitting with 88 save situations, the Phillies have compiled 43 holds and also 17 blown saves. Philadelphia has had bullpen pitchers step onto the hill in 44 save opportunities and they have tallied 27 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 100 times in high leverage situations and on 61 occasions with runners on base. Philadelphia relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 36.0% out of 89 inherited base runners. They rank 17th in MLB holding a save rate of 61.4%, and they have sent 291 relief pitchers to the mound for the year.

Out of their 7,680 innings on the field, the Phillies have a defensive efficiency of 68.9% (23rd in MLB). The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 66 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .989 (4th in MLB). The Phillies have accrued 831 assists, 36 errors and have a total of 2,560 putouts on the campaign.

Wheeler (112-73 career mark) has a 3.27 earned run average and has surrendered 7.7 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.68 and he has faced 6,968 hitters in his pro baseball career. He has allowed a total of 617 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.135 and a FIP of 3.2. During his pro baseball career, Wheeler has surrendered 1,447 base knocks while earning 1,779 strikeouts in 1,700 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Boston (+125)

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