Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, 5/1/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025

Location: Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON

TV: Sportsnet

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (-210) Toronto (+172)

The Toronto Blue Jays (13-16) host the Boston Red Sox (17-14) at Rogers Centre on Thursday. The line on this matchup has Boston at -210 and Toronto is sitting at +172. The total has been set at 9. The starting pitchers are Tanner Houck and Jose Berrios.

As a team, the Boston Red Sox are putting up 5.1 runs/g, which has them sitting at 6th in the league. They have accounted for 158 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .334. The Red Sox have hit 61 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 38 baseballs out of the park. They have amassed 150 RBI's and 272 base knocks so far this season, while their team batting average is .253. Boston has a slugging rate of .423 and have been called out on strikes 282 times, while taking a walk on 122 occasions.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.73 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.30. Red Sox pitchers have allowed 26 home runs in addition to 141 runs in total (24th in baseball). Boston has given up 261 base knocks (8.5 per 9 innings) and also 122 earned runs. The Red Sox have compiled a team earned run average of 3.97 so far this season (14th in the league), and the staff has struck out 268 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 98 hitters and their FIP is 3.59 as a squad for the season.

The Red Sox have sent 94 relief pitchers to the mound so far this year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 30 base runners on the season and 50.0% of them ended up scoring. They have recorded 8 saves for the season and have not converted 5 out of their 13 save opportunities. The Red Sox relief pitchers have compiled a save rate of 61.5% and stepped onto the hill in 23 save situations. The relievers have a total of 9 holds on the season (27th in MLB). Red Sox bullpen pitchers have entered the game with players on base 22 times and also have had 28 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Red Sox have converted 67.2% of balls hit into play into outs out of 2,487 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 26th in pro baseball. The Baltimore Orioles have a total of 829 putouts for the season, as well as 284 assists and 28 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .975 which ranks 29th in MLB, and have 28 double plays.

Houck (24-31 record in his career) has earned a FIP of 3.76 while going up against 1,935 opposing batters in the major leagues. He has given up 410 base knocks (8.0 hits per 9 innings) and has had 153 free passes. His ERA is 3.82 (195 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.226. Houck has thrown 459 innings and has accumulated 441 K's thus far in his career.

Toronto has recorded 16 home runs so far this season and 92 RBIs. They have hit 51 doubles, while taking a walk 92 times as well as recording 97 runs. The Toronto Blue Jays have accounted for a team OBP of .308 as well as a batting average of .236 on the campaign. The Blue Jays have a team slugging % of .341 and they score 3.34 runs per outing (28th in MLB). They have been rung up on 208 instances (29th in baseball) and are sitting with 227 base hits.

The Blue Jays have a team WHIP of 1.254 and have a FIP of 4.37 as a team so far this year. They come in at 17th in the league as a staff in total hits relinquished with 235. The Toronto pitching staff have conceded 132 runs for the year while having an ERA of 4.27 (123 earned runs given up). Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 9.20 (264 strikeouts vs 90 walks). They have surrendered 42 dingers and they give up 4.59 runs per 9 innings (19th in baseball).

Toronto has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 13 save chances and they have recorded 8 saves. They are ranked 20th in the league holding a save percentage of 61.5%, and they have sent 99 bullpen pitchers to the hill over the course of the season. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 22 times in high leverage situations and also on 34 occasions with runners on base. Toronto relievers have an inherited score rate of 18.6% out of their 43 inherited runners. With 30 save situations, the Blue Jays have 17 holds and also 5 blown saves.

In 2,334 innings on the diamond, the Blue Jays have a defensive efficiency of 70.3% (13th in professional baseball). The Toronto Blue Jays have turned 21 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .985 (17th in the majors). The Blue Jays have racked up 229 assists, 15 errors and are sitting with 778 putouts this season.

So far in his pro baseball career, Berrios has allowed 1,347 base knocks while he has earned 1,371 K's in 1,439 innings pitched. He has allowed a total of 652 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.236 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.0. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.17 and he has gone up against 6,053 opposing hitters during his career. Berrios (100-78 career record) is the owner of a 4.08 earned run average and has conceded 8.4 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Toronto (+172)

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