Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, 10/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers

Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025

Location: American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Chicago (+129) Milwaukee (-157)

The Chicago Cubs (92-70) are headed to American Family Field on Saturday where they will meet the Milwaukee Brewers (97-65) in Game 1 of the NLDS. The line on this matchup has Chicago at +129 while Milwaukee is priced at -157. The over/under is 7. The starting pitchers will be Colin Rea and Freddy Peralta.

The Cubs have accumulated 267 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 223 balls out of the park. Chicago is slugging .430 and have struck out 1,277 times, while being walked on 554 occasions. As a squad, the Chicago Cubs are notching 4.9 runs per game, which has them at 5th in MLB. They have accounted for 771 RBI's in addition to 1,371 hits this season, and their average at the plate is at .249. They have accumulated 793 runs scored and hold an OBP of .320.

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The Cubs hold a team earned run average of 3.79 over the course of the season (8th in MLB), and they have struck out 1,265 hitters. Cubs pitchers have given up 202 home runs and also 649 runs in total (7th in MLB). They have walked 405 opposing players and their FIP is 4.16 as a team on the year. Chicago has given up 1,284 hits (8.1 per 9 innings) as well as 605 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 3.12 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.18.

The Cubs relievers have earned a save percentage of 68.8% and stepped onto the hill in 177 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 142 base runners on the season with 33.8% of those players ended up scoring. Cubs pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 101 times and also have had 158 appearances in high leverage situations. The Cubs have dispatched 523 relievers to the hill on the campaign. The relief pitchers have racked up 110 holds for the season (3rd in MLB). They have earned 44 saves for the season and have missed out on 20 of 64 save opportunities.

The Cubs have converted 71.9% of balls hit into play into outs in their 12,915 innings, which has them sitting at 2nd in baseball. The Boston Red Sox have a tally of 4,305 putouts this season, in addition to 1,342 assists and 61 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .989 which has them ranked 4th in baseball, and have earned 117 double plays.

Rea has thrown 605 innings and is sitting with 493 strikeouts so far in his MLB career. His ERA is 4.42 (297 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.270. He has given up 587 base knocks (8.7 hits per nine innings) and has 182 free passes. Rea (37-27 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.35 and he has faced 2,566 hitters in the major leagues.

Milwaukee has compiled 166 HRs on the year to go along with 750 RBIs. They have recorded 265 two-baggers, while walking 564 times as well as earning 806 runs. The Milwaukee Brewers have recorded an OBP of .332 and a team batting average of .258 for the year. The Brewers hold a team slugging percentage of .403 and they have an average of 4.98 runs per game (3rd in baseball). They have been rung up on 1,266 occasions (26th in the league) and have a total of 1,423 hits.

The Milwaukee pitching staff have given up 634 runs on the year while holding a team ERA of 3.58 (574 earned runs relinquished). They have given up 168 home runs and they relinquish 3.96 runs per 9 innings (3rd in the league). The Brewers are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.228 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.91 as a staff so far this year. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 8.90 (1,432 strikeouts against 534 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 3rd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,237.

Sitting with 177 save situations, the Brewers have recorded 107 holds and 21 blown saves. Milwaukee has had bullpen pitchers enter the game in 66 save opportunities and they have converted 45 saves. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 187 times in high leverage situations in addition to 145 occasions with base runners. Milwaukee relievers hold an inherited score rate of 31.7% out of their 218 inherited base runners. They are currently ranked 5th in the league holding a save rate of 68.2%, and they have dispatched 550 relievers onto the diamond for the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers have gotten 122 double plays and have a fielding rate of .987 (10th in professional baseball). The Brewers have racked up 1,297 assists, 76 errors and are sitting with 4,326 putouts this season. In their 12,978 innings played, the Brewers have earned a defensive efficiency of 70.9% (5th in professional baseball).

During his MLB career, Peralta has allowed 694 hits while accumulating 1,153 K's in 930 innings pitched. Peralta (70-42 career mark) has earned a 3.59 ERA and has allowed 6.7 hits per nine innings. He has given up a total of 371 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.133 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.5. His K/BB ratio is 3.20 and he has faced 3,853 opposing batters during his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Chicago (+129)

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