Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction, 5/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets

Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Chicago (+172) New York (-210)

The New York Mets (24-14) will try to defeat the Chicago Cubs (22-16) at Citi Field on Sunday. The moneyline on this contest has Chicago at +172 while New York is opening at -210. The over/under is 8.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Matthew Boyd and Griffin Canning.

The Cubs have accounted for 68 doubles as a squad and have knocked 55 balls out of the park. Chicago has a slugging % of .446 and have struck out 307 times, while taking a walk on 149 occasions. As a squad, the Chicago Cubs are notching 5.9 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 1st in MLB. They have earned 219 runs batted in and 344 base knocks on the campaign, and their average at the plate is at .258. They have tallied 223 runs and have an on-base percentage of .335.

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The Cubs have an ERA of 3.95 on the season (16th in MLB), and the staff has struck out 298 hitters. Cubs pitchers have conceded 37 home runs in addition to 165 runs in total (16th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 129 opposing players and their FIP comes in at 4.02 as a team so far this year. Chicago has yielded 318 hits (8.4 per 9 innings) as well as 150 earned runs. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.31 and the pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.31.

The Cubs have sent 132 relievers to the hill this season. The relievers have inherited 44 base runners on the season with 40.9% of those players ended up scoring. They have tallied 8 saves on the campaign and have missed out on 7 of their 15 save opportunities. The Cubs relief pitchers have accumulated a save rate of 53.3% and have entered the game in 38 save situations. The bullpen have notched 22 holds on the year (17th in the league). Cubs bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 32 times in addition to having 39 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Boston Red Sox have earned 1,026 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 307 assists and 21 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .984 which puts them in 17th in pro baseball, and they have turned 31 double plays. The Cubs have converted 69.9% of balls in play into outs out of their 3,078 innings, which has them sitting 14th in the majors.

Boyd has taken the hill for 947 innings and has accounted for 928 strikeouts during his career. Boyd (49-71 record in his career) has earned a FIP of 4.69 while facing 4,064 batters in the major leagues. His ERA is 4.76 (501 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.315. He has surrendered 939 base hits (8.9 hits per nine innings) and has had 307 walks.

The New York Mets have compiled a team on-base percentage of .331 and a batting average of .249 for the season. They have been called out on strikes on 280 occasions (27th in baseball) and are sitting with 317 base hits. New York has compiled 42 home runs for the season as well as 174 RBIs. The Mets have a team slugging % of .420 and they tally 4.76 runs per outing (10th in the league). They have recorded 71 two-baggers, while taking a walk 142 times as well as racking up 181 runs.

The New York pitching staff have relinquished 122 runs for the year while having an ERA of 2.89 (108 earned runs given up). They have yielded 21 long balls and they concede 3.27 runs per 9 innings (3rd in the league). The Mets hold a team WHIP of 1.256 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.11 as a unit for the season. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 9.20 (344 strikeouts against 127 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 11th in the league as a staff in total hits allowed with 295.

New York has called on relievers to take the mound in 16 save opportunities and they have walked away with 11 saves. They rank 9th in baseball with a save percentage of 68.8%, and they have sent 122 relief pitchers to the mound so far this year. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill 48 times in high leverage situations and on 35 occasions with base runners. New York relievers hold an inherited score rate of 31.4% out of 51 inherited runners. Sitting with 49 save situations, the Mets have 33 holds and 5 blown saves.

The New York Mets have gotten 29 double plays and have a fielding rate of .988 (9th in baseball). The Mets have recorded 325 assists, 16 errors and have earned a total of 1,008 putouts on the campaign. In their 3,024 innings on the field, the Mets have earned a defensive efficiency of 68.7% (21st in baseball).

In his career, Canning has surrendered 529 base knocks while he has totaled 520 strikeouts in 544 frames. Canning (30-35 win-loss record in his career) has a 4.63 earned run average while surrendering 8.8 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed a total of 280 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.336 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.6. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.63 and he has faced 2,327 hitters in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Chicago (+172)

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