Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 7/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Friday, July 4, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Cincinnati (+125) Philadelphia (-150)

Citizens Bank Park is the location where the Philadelphia Phillies (50-35) will take on the Cincinnati Reds (44-41) on Friday. The line on this matchup has Cincinnati at +125 while Philadelphia is opening at -150. The betting total comes in at 8. The pitchers taking the mound are Andrew Abbott and Jesus Luzardo.

Cincinnati is slugging .401 and have struck out 744 times, while taking a walk on 285 occasions. They have 375 runs batted in and 706 hits on the campaign, and their average at the plate is at .248. The Reds have hit 140 doubles as a squad and have hit 92 balls out of the stadium. They have racked up 393 runs while holding a team OBP of .320. As a squad, the Cincinnati Reds are recording 4.6 runs per contest, which has them at 10th in baseball.

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The Reds hold a team ERA of 3.91 this year (15th in the league), and the staff has rung up 680 hitters. Reds pitchers have surrendered 104 home runs in addition to 360 runs in total (16th in MLB). They have walked 267 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 4.29 as a unit for the year. Cincinnati has allowed 662 hits (7.9 per 9 innings) as well as 327 earned runs. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.55 and their pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.24.

The Reds bullpen have accumulated a save rate of 67.7% and have entered the game in 86 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 104 base runners for the year with 32.7% of them earned a run for their team. Reds bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with opponents on base 67 times as well as having 77 appearances in high leverage situations. The Reds have sent 288 relief pitchers to the hill for the season. The relief pitchers have a total of 53 holds for the year (10th in baseball). They have accumulated 21 saves so far this season and have blown 10 of 31 save chances.

The Chicago White Sox have notched a total of 2,258 putouts this season, in addition to 650 assists and 40 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .986 which ranks 14th in baseball, and they have turned 49 double plays. The Reds have turned 72.0% of baseballs in play into outs in their 6,774 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 2nd in pro baseball.

Abbott has taken the hill for 327 innings and has 310 punch outs in his pro baseball career. Abbott (25-17 career record) is the owner of a FIP of 3.25 while he has gone up against 1,365 opposing batters in the majors. His ERA is 3.30 (120 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.238. He has given up 287 base hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) and has had 118 free passes.

The Philadelphia Phillies have accumulated an OBP of .329 and a batting average of .254 for the season. They have been rung up on 671 instances (22nd in the league) and are sitting with 733 base knocks. Philadelphia has a total of 89 long balls on the season as well as 372 runs batted in. The Phillies hold a team slugging % of .401 and they average 4.59 runs per outing (11th in baseball). They have notched 134 doubles, while getting a free base 296 times and scoring 390 runs.

The Phillies hold a team WHIP of 1.264 in addition to having a FIP of 3.60 as a staff on the campaign. They are sitting at 19th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 714. The Philadelphia pitching staff have given up 340 runs so far this season and come in with a team ERA of 3.72 (313 earned runs surrendered). They currently have a K/BB ratio of 9.30 (785 strikeouts vs 244 walks). They have relinquished 89 dingers and they yield 4.04 runs per 9 innings (12th in baseball).

Philadelphia has had relief pitchers enter the contest in 42 save chances and they have earned 26 saves. They are currently ranked 16th in baseball with a save percentage of 61.9%, and they have sent 260 bullpen pitchers to the mound on the year. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 91 times in high leverage situations in addition to 53 occasions with runners on. Philadelphia relievers have an inherited score rate of 40.5% of 74 inherited base runners. With 81 save situations, the Phillies have 38 holds and 16 blown saves.

In 6,822 innings on the field, the Phillies have a defensive efficiency of 68.6% (24th in baseball). The Philadelphia Phillies have turned 57 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .990 (3rd in the majors). The Phillies have racked up 735 assists, 31 errors and have amassed 2,274 putouts this year.

Luzardo (33-38 career mark) has a 4.25 ERA and has surrendered 8.3 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 3.16 and he has gone up against 2,554 batters thus far in his career. He has allowed 287 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.277 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.2. So far in his career, Luzardo has surrendered 563 hits while tallying 670 strikeouts in 607 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Cincinnati (+125)

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