Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 9/26/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Friday, September 26, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Detroit (+150) Boston (-182)

The Detroit Tigers (85-73) are hitting the road to Fenway Park on Friday where they will try to beat the Boston Red Sox (87-71). The moneyline on this game has the Tigers at +150 while the Red Sox are coming in at -182. The over/under has been set at 9. The expected starting pitchers are Casey Mize and Connelly Early.

As a unit, the Detroit Tigers are scoring 4.7 runs per game, which has them sitting at 11th in the league. They are sitting with 746 runs and have an on-base percentage of .316. The Tigers have accrued 241 doubles as a squad and have hit 194 baseballs out of the stadium. They have 712 runs batted in and 1,313 base knocks over the course of the season, and their team batting average is sitting at .247. Detroit has a slugging rate of .415 and have been called out on strikes 1,412 times, while being walked on 495 occasions.

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Their K/BB ratio is 2.80 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.25. Tigers pitchers have surrendered 185 home runs and 680 runs (17th in baseball). Detroit has yielded 1,280 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) as well as 619 earned runs. The Tigers have compiled a team earned run average of 3.97 on the season (16th in baseball), and they have rung up 1,337 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 477 opposing players and their FIP is 4.09 as a squad on the season.

The Tigers relievers have recorded a save rate of 64.4% and stepped onto the hill in 134 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 251 runners so far this season and 28.7% of those runners ended up crossing the plate. Tigers relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on 177 times as well as having 133 appearances in high leverage situations. The Tigers have sent 495 relief pitchers to the hill on the campaign. The relief pitchers have notched 71 holds so far this season (26th in baseball). They have recorded 38 saves for the season and have blown 21 out of their 59 save opportunities.

The Colorado Rockies are sitting with 4,206 putouts at this point in the season, in addition to 1,352 assists and 78 errors. Their fielding rate sits at .986 which puts them in 14th in professional baseball, and have earned 126 double plays. The Tigers have converted 70.2% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,618 innings, which has them ranked 13th in pro baseball.

Mize (23-25 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 4.15 while he has gone up against 1,845 hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 440 hits (9.1 hits per nine innings) and has 121 walks. His earned run average is 4.22 (203 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.295. Mize has thrown 433 frames and has accounted for 357 strikeouts in his pro baseball career.

Boston has knocked in 184 home runs for the year to go along with 738 runs batted in. They have put up 316 two-baggers, while getting a free base 510 times and putting up 776 runs. The Boston Red Sox are sitting with an OBP of .325 and a batting average of .255 on the year. The Red Sox hold a team slugging % of .423 and they score 4.91 runs per outing (5th in baseball). They have struck out on 1,381 instances (8th in MLB) and have notched a total of 1,386 base hits.

The Red Sox are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.285 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.99 as a team on the year. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.40 (1,324 strikeouts against 515 free passes). They come in at 15th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 1,301. They have allowed 161 homers and they allow 4.22 runs per 9 innings (11th in baseball). The Boston pitching staff have conceded 662 runs on the campaign and come in with a team ERA of 3.72 (584 earned runs surrendered).

Boston has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the contest in 72 save opportunities and they have walked away with 44 saves. They rank 21st in MLB holding a save rate of 61.1%, and they have dispatched 522 relievers to the mound so far this year. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 186 times in high leverage situations in addition to 154 occasions with runners on. Boston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 33.2% out of 211 inherited runners. Sitting with 158 save situations, the Red Sox have tallied 84 holds and 28 blown saves.

In 12,720 innings played, the Red Sox are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 69.1% (21st in professional baseball). The Boston Red Sox have turned 126 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .980 (30th in professional baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 1,434 assists, 114 errors and are sitting with 4,240 putouts this year.

Early (1-1 career record) has earned a 1.91 earned run average while allowing 8.3 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 7.33 and he has faced 59 hitters so far in his career. He has allowed 3 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.135 and being the owner of a FIP of 1.9. So far in his career, Early has conceded 13 hits while he has totaled 22 strikeouts in 14 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Boston (-182)

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