Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 9/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Detroit (+172) Boston (-210)

Fenway Park is the location where the Boston Red Sox (87-72) will compete against the Detroit Tigers (86-73) on Sunday. The moneyline on this game has Detroit at +172 and Boston is priced at -210. The betting total is set at 8. The expected starting pitchers will be Tarik Skubal and Lucas Giolito.

Detroit has a slugging percentage of .416 and have struck out 1,422 times, while being walked on 500 occasions. They have 716 runs batted in and 1,321 base knocks this season, and their team batting average is sitting at .247. The Tigers have hit 242 two-baggers as a squad and have smacked 197 baseballs out of the stadium. They have accumulated 750 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .316. As a squad, the Detroit Tigers are compiling 4.7 runs per game, which has them at 11th in baseball.

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The Tigers have an ERA of 3.96 this season (16th in baseball), and their staff has rung up 1,345 hitters. Tigers pitchers have allowed 185 home runs and also 682 total runs (17th in baseball). They have walked 479 batters and their FIP is 4.08 as a squad for the season. Detroit has conceded 1,285 base knocks (8.2 per 9 innings) and also 621 earned runs. They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.81 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.25.

Tigers relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 178 times as well as having 134 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have a total of 74 holds this year (24th in MLB). The Tigers relievers have accumulated a save percentage of 65.0% and have stepped onto the mound in 138 save situations. They have tallied 39 saves for the year and have missed out on 21 out of their 60 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 252 runners so far this year and 29.0% of those players crossed home plate. The Tigers have dispatched 500 relief pitchers to the mound on the year.

The Tigers have turned 70.2% of baseballs in play into outs out of 12,699 innings, which has them sitting 13th in pro baseball. The Colorado Rockies have earned 4,233 putouts this season, in addition to 1,360 assists and 78 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .986 which puts them in 13th in MLB, and they have turned 126 double plays.

Skubal (54-37 mark in his career) holds a FIP of 3.03 while facing 3,056 batters during his time in the majors. He has surrendered 614 hits (7.2 hits per 9 innings) with 172 walks. His earned run average is 3.08 (262 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.026. Skubal has taken the mound for 766 innings and has earned 889 K's in his pro baseball career.

The Boston Red Sox have accumulated a team on-base percentage of .324 and a batting average of .254 over the course of the season. They have struck out on 1,389 occasions (8th in MLB) and are sitting with 1,390 hits. Boston has accumulated 184 home runs so far this year and 739 runs batted in. The Red Sox hold a team slugging percentage of .422 and they are scoring 4.89 runs per contest (5th in the league). They have hit 317 two-baggers, while getting a free base 512 times and putting up 777 runs.

The Red Sox have a WHIP of 1.286 in addition to having a FIP of 4.01 as a staff for the year. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 8.40 (1,329 strikeouts vs 519 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 15th in the league as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,308. They have allowed 163 dingers and they allow 4.23 runs per 9 innings (11th in the league). The Boston pitching staff have relinquished 668 runs this season while having a team ERA of 3.72 (587 earned runs conceded).

Boston has called on relief pitchers to take the mound in 72 save chances and they have walked away with 44 saves. They are ranked 21st in the league with a save percentage of 61.1%, and they have dispatched 525 bullpen pitchers onto the field so far this year. Their relievers have taken the field 187 times in high leverage situations in addition to 156 occasions with runners on base. Boston relievers have an inherited score rate of 34.4% out of their 215 inherited base runners. With 158 save situations, the Red Sox have amassed 84 holds in addition to 28 blown saves.

The Boston Red Sox have gotten 127 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .980 (30th in pro baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 1,441 assists, 115 errors and have a tally of 4,264 putouts this season. In their 12,792 innings on the diamond, the Red Sox have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 69.2% (21st in MLB).

Giolito (71-66 mark in his career) has a 4.30 earned run average while conceding 7.9 hits per nine innings. His K/BB ratio is 2.72 and he has faced 4,873 hitters in his pro baseball career. He has given up a total of 554 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.259 and a FIP of 4.2. In his MLB career, Giolito has given up 1,017 hits and he has 1,198 strikeouts in 1,158 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Boston (-210)

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