Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 8/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins

Date: Monday, August 4, 2025

Location: loanDepot park in Miami, FL

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Florida

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (-182) Miami (+150)

The Miami Marlins (52-55) will take on the Houston Astros (62-47) at loanDepot park on Monday. The moneyline on this contest has Houston at -182 while Miami is at +150. The total has been set at 8.5. The starting pitchers will be Jason Alexander and Sandy Alcantara.

Houston has a slugging percentage of .405 and have been rung up 858 times, while drawing a walk on 316 occasions. They have 451 RBI's in addition to 946 base knocks this season, and their team batting average sits at .257. The Astros have accounted for 164 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 120 balls out of the park. They have accumulated 473 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .322. As a squad, the Houston Astros are scoring 4.3 runs/g, which ranks them 16th in MLB.

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The Astros have an earned run average of 3.69 on the year (8th in MLB), and the staff has rung up 1,057 hitters. Astros pitchers have allowed 126 home runs in addition to 424 total runs (6th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 325 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 3.74 as a unit so far this year. Houston has conceded 830 hits (7.7 per 9 innings) as well as 398 earned runs. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 3.25 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.19.

Astros relief pitchers have entered the game with runners on base 75 times in addition to having 109 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have tallied 68 holds on the season (9th in baseball). The Astros relievers have a save percentage of 73.9% and have stepped onto the mound in 115 save situations. They have earned 34 saves this season and have missed out on 12 of 46 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 104 base runners on the year with 26.9% of them ended up scoring. The Astros have sent 338 relief pitchers to the hill for the season.

The Detroit Tigers have notched a total of 2,913 putouts for the season, in addition to 850 assists and 46 errors. Their fielding rate is at .988 which is 9th in pro baseball, and they have turned 69 double plays. The Astros have converted 70.5% of balls in play into outs out of 8,739 innings, which has them sitting 11th in professional baseball.

Alexander (3-4 win-loss mark in his career) has a FIP of 5.89 while he has faced 445 batters in the majors. He has surrendered 121 base hits (11.3 hits per nine innings) with 42 free passes. His ERA is 5.98 (64 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.691. Alexander has taken the ball for 96 innings and has racked up 66 strikeouts so far in his MLB career.

Miami has recorded 99 home runs this year to go along with 435 RBIs. They have hit 182 two-baggers, while getting a free base 315 times as well as scoring 453 runs. The Miami Marlins have tallied a team on-base percentage of .314 and a batting average of .252 on the year. The Marlins have a team SLG% of .393 and they are scoring 4.23 runs per game (20th in baseball). They have been called out on strikes on 841 occasions (25th in MLB) and have accounted for 921 base hits.

The Marlins hold a team WHIP of 1.303 and have a FIP of 4.05 as a pitching staff on the campaign. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.00 (843 strikeouts vs 337 walks). They sit at 19th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 904. They have surrendered 111 home runs and they surrender 4.73 runs per 9 innings (24th in the league). The Miami pitching staff have yielded 500 runs this season while having an ERA of 4.36 (461 earned runs conceded).

With 105 save situations, the Marlins have accumulated 60 holds in addition to 17 blown saves. Miami has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 44 save chances and they have converted 27 saves. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 116 times in high leverage situations and on 84 occasions with runners on. Miami bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 32.0% out of their 122 inherited runners. They are ranked 17th in baseball holding a save rate of 61.4%, and they have sent 336 relievers to the hill for the season.

In 8,571 innings on the field, the Marlins have a defensive efficiency of 69.6% (18th in professional baseball). The Miami Marlins have gotten 76 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .985 (19th in pro baseball). The Marlins have racked up 939 assists, 56 errors and have earned 2,857 putouts on the season.

During his MLB career, Alcantara has given up 882 hits while he has tallied 870 strikeouts in 1,009 innings. Alcantara (47-64 win-loss mark in his career) is the owner of a 3.65 earned run average while giving up 7.9 hits per 9 innings. He has given up a total of 409 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.186 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.6. His K/BB ratio is 2.76 and he has gone up against 4,161 batters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Miami (+150)

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