Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, 6/5/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025

Location: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA

TV: SportsNet Pittsburgh

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (-150) Pittsburgh (+125)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (22-39) will try to beat the Houston Astros (33-27) at PNC Park on Thursday. The moneyline on this game has Houston at -150 while Pittsburgh is at +125. The total has been set at 9. The starting pitchers will be Framber Valdez and Mitch Keller.

As a team, the Houston Astros are recording 4.0 runs/g, which has them at 22nd in baseball. They are sitting with 242 runs scored while having a team on-base percentage of .319. The Astros have accounted for 81 doubles as a team and have hit 61 baseballs out of the park. They have recorded 231 runs batted in and 502 base knocks over the course of the season, while their batting average sits at .252. Houston is slugging .391 and have struck out 457 times, while drawing a walk on 173 occasions.

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The Astros have compiled a team earned run average of 3.59 over the course of the season (10th in the league), and they have rung up 569 hitters. Astros pitchers have surrendered 59 home runs in addition to 224 runs (9th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 186 opposing hitters and their FIP is 3.54 as a team so far this season. Houston has allowed 427 base hits (7.3 per 9 innings) as well as 211 earned runs. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.06 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.16.

The Astros relief pitchers have a save percentage of 73.9% and have entered the game in 61 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 68 runners on the year and 30.9% of those players earned a run for their team. Astros pitchers have entered the game with players on base 46 times in addition to having 54 appearances in high leverage situations. The Astros have sent 187 relievers to the hill so far this season. The bullpen have recorded 38 holds over the course of the season (12th in MLB). They have recorded 17 saves so far this year and have blown 6 of their 23 chances to get a save.

The Detroit Tigers have a total of 1,585 putouts for the season, in addition to 448 assists and 25 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .988 which ranks 11th in MLB, and have accumulated 33 double plays. The Astros have converted 71.5% of balls in play into outs in their 4,755 innings, which ranks them 5th in baseball.

Valdez has thrown 966 frames and has accounted for 939 strikeouts so far in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 3.29 (353 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.185. He has conceded 800 base knocks (7.5 hits per nine innings) and has 345 free passes. Valdez (73-45 career win-loss mark) holds a FIP of 3.24 and he has faced 3,988 opposing batters in the majors.

Pittsburgh has a total of 43 long balls on the season to go along with 188 RBIs. They have recorded 75 doubles, while walking 209 times and scoring 194 runs. The Pittsburgh Pirates have compiled an on-base percentage of .304 as well as a batting average of .226 over the course of the season. The Pirates have a team slugging % of .337 and they are recording 3.18 runs per game (29th in baseball). They have struck out on 533 occasions (6th in the league) and have accounted for 458 hits.

The Pirates have a WHIP of 1.237 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.83 as a squad this season. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 7.40 (444 strikeouts vs 191 bases on balls). They have a ranking of 14th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 478. They have given up 50 dingers and they allow 4.24 runs per 9 innings (14th in the league). The Pittsburgh pitching staff have surrendered 255 runs on the year while having a team ERA of 3.94 (237 earned runs conceded).

Pittsburgh relievers have an inherited score rate of 37.5% out of their 96 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 67 times in high leverage situations and also on 60 occasions with base runners. With 57 save situations, the Pirates have compiled 32 holds and also 12 blown saves. They sit at 28th in the league holding a save rate of 50.0%, and they have dispatched 199 relief pitchers onto the field this year. Pittsburgh has had bullpen pitchers take the mound in 24 save opportunities and they have earned 12 saves.

Out of their 4,869 innings on the diamond, the Pirates have a defensive efficiency of 71.1% (8th in pro baseball). The Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten 54 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .985 (22nd in the majors). The Pirates have racked up 550 assists, 34 errors and have notched a total of 1,623 putouts on the season.

Keller (37-57 record in his career) has a 4.52 earned run average while conceding 9.5 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.78 and he has faced 3,365 opposing hitters in his MLB career. He has conceded a total of 387 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.399 and a FIP of 4.4. In his MLB career, Keller has conceded 812 base hits and he has 743 K's in 771 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Houston (-150)

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