Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, 9/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Thursday, September 11, 2025

Location: Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON

TV: Sportsnet

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (+220) Toronto (-275)

The Toronto Blue Jays (83-61) will play the Houston Astros (78-67) at Rogers Centre on Thursday. The moneyline on this game has Houston at +220 and Toronto is sitting at -275. The over/under is set at 8. The expected starting pitchers are Cristian Javier and Kevin Gausman.

The Astros have earned 225 doubles as a team and have hit 160 balls out of the stadium. Houston owns a slugging percentage of .401 and have been rung up 1,152 times, while being walked on 429 occasions. As a squad, the Houston Astros are earning 4.2 runs per game, which has them at 25th in MLB. They have 584 RBI's and 1,245 hits so far this year, and their batting average is sitting at .253. They have accounted for 612 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .318.

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Their K/BB ratio is 3.00 and the pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.22. Astros pitchers have allowed 176 home runs in addition to 594 runs in total (8th in baseball). Houston has surrendered 1,121 base knocks (7.8 per 9 innings) and 553 earned runs. The Astros have an ERA of 3.85 so far this season (8th in MLB), and the staff has rung up 1,375 batters. They have walked 458 batters and their FIP sits at 3.98 as a team for the year.

The Astros relievers have recorded a save percentage of 72.7% and stepped onto the hill in 141 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 158 base runners on the season and 22.8% of them earned a run for their team. Astros bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 116 times and also have had 158 appearances in high leverage situations. The Astros have dispatched 464 relief pitchers to the hill on the campaign. The relief pitchers have earned 83 holds this year (12th in MLB). They have compiled 40 saves for the season and have missed out on 15 of 55 save opportunities.

The Detroit Tigers have accumulated 3,882 putouts this season, as well as 1,137 assists and 63 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .988 which ranks 8th in MLB, and they have turned 93 double plays. The Astros have converted 70.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 11,646 innings, which has them sitting at 9th in baseball.

Javier (34-20 win-loss mark in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.57 while going up against 2,149 hitters in the majors. He has surrendered 380 hits (6.6 hits per nine innings) and has 216 free passes. His earned run average is 3.63 (210 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.144. Javier has pitched in 521 frames and is sitting with 584 punch outs during his MLB career.

The Blue Jays have a slugging percentage of .432 and they are recording 4.99 runs per contest (4th in the league). They have 264 doubles, while taking a walk 472 times as well as scoring 719 runs. Toronto is sitting with 175 home runs this season as well as 694 runs batted in. They have been rung up on 976 instances (30th in MLB) and have recorded 1,322 base knocks. The Toronto Blue Jays are sitting with a team on-base percentage of .338 in addition to a team batting average of .269 so far this season.

The Toronto pitching staff have surrendered 653 runs over the course of the season while holding a team ERA of 4.23 (600 earned runs conceded). They have conceded 192 home runs and they yield 4.60 runs per 9 innings (19th in baseball). The Blue Jays have a WHIP of 1.269 in addition to having a FIP of 4.33 as a squad on the year. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 9.00 (1,275 strikeouts vs 456 walks). They rank 12th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 1,166.

Toronto has had bullpen pitchers take the mound in 62 save chances and they have earned 39 saves. They are currently ranked 16th in the league with a save rate of 62.9%, and they have sent 501 relievers onto the diamond on the year. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 143 times in high leverage situations and also on 155 occasions with runners on. Toronto relievers hold an inherited score rate of 29.7% out of their 222 inherited base runners. With 153 save situations, the Blue Jays have recorded 86 holds in addition to 23 blown saves.

The Toronto Blue Jays have gotten 103 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .984 (24th in MLB). The Blue Jays have accrued 1,099 assists, 81 errors and have a total of 3,834 putouts for the year. In 11,502 innings on the diamond, the Blue Jays have earned a defensive efficiency of 70.0% (14th in the majors).

Thus far in his career, Gausman has given up 1,810 hits while he has earned 1,927 strikeouts in 1,886 frames. He has allowed 801 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.240 and having a FIP of 3.8. His K/BB ratio is 3.64 and he has faced 7,885 batters thus far in his career. Gausman (111-112 record in his career) holds a 3.82 ERA while allowing 8.6 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Houston (+220)

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