Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, 5/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles

Date: Sunday, May 4, 2025

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD

TV: MASN

Odds/Point Spread: Kansas City (-160) Baltimore (+132)

Oriole Park at Camden Yards is where the Baltimore Orioles (12-18) will attempt to beat the Kansas City Royals (17-15) on Sunday. The moneyline on this contest has the Royals at -160 while the Orioles are opening at +132. The total comes in at 9. The expected starting pitchers are Michael Lorenzen and Kyle Gibson.

As a squad, the Kansas City Royals are scoring 3.3 runs per game, which puts them at 28th in the league. They have 105 runs and have an OBP of .296. The Royals have tallied 55 doubles as a team and have knocked 15 baseballs out of the stadium. They have tallied 105 runs batted in as well as 246 hits on the year, and their average at the plate sits at .234. Kansas City is slugging .337 and have been called out on strikes 231 times, while being walked on 87 occasions.

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They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.50 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.20. Royals pitchers have conceded 28 home runs and also 110 runs in total (5th in the league). Kansas City has conceded 238 hits (7.5 per 9 innings) in addition to 100 earned runs. The Royals have compiled a team ERA of 3.17 on the year (4th in the league), and the staff has struck out 258 hitters. They have walked 103 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 3.70 as a squad so far this year.

The Royals have sent 98 relievers to the mound on the year. The relievers have inherited 30 base runners over the course of the season with 36.7% of those players earned a run for their team. They have 11 saves on the year and have blown 4 of their 15 save opportunities. The Royals relievers have a save percentage of 73.3% and have entered the game in 33 save situations. The relievers have earned 18 holds on the campaign (19th in the league). Royals bullpen pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 23 times in addition to having 33 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Houston Astros have accounted for 853 putouts over the course of the season, as well as 296 assists and 13 errors. Their fielding rate is at .989 which ranks 3rd in pro baseball, and have earned 24 double plays. The Royals have turned 72.0% of balls hit into play into outs out of 2,559 innings, ranking them 6th in professional baseball.

Lorenzen (50-47 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.92 and he has gone up against 3,754 opposing batters in the major leagues. He has surrendered 805 base knocks (8.2 hits per nine innings) and has 361 free passes. His earned run average is 3.98 (392 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.314. Lorenzen has taken the ball for 887 innings and has tallied 727 K's during his pro baseball career.

The Baltimore Orioles have a team OBP of .296 and a team batting average of .223 on the campaign. They have been rung up on 265 occasions (11th in baseball) and have tallied 217 hits. Baltimore is sitting with 37 home runs on the campaign as well as 112 runs batted in. The Orioles hold a slugging percentage of .382 and they score 4.00 runs per contest (18th in the league). They have put up 35 doubles, while taking a walk 88 times as well as scoring 120 runs.

The Baltimore pitching staff have allowed 169 runs this year and come in with a team ERA of 5.47 (158 earned runs conceded). They have given up 41 home runs and they allow 5.85 runs per 9 innings (28th in the league). The Orioles are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.577 in addition to having a FIP of 4.84 as a team so far this season. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 7.50 (218 strikeouts vs 111 bases on balls). They have a ranking of 29th in MLB as a staff in total hits given up with 299.

Baltimore relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 22.4% of 49 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 25 times in high leverage situations and also on 38 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 30 save situations, the Orioles have earned 21 holds and 1 blown save. They rank 2nd in the league with a save rate of 83.3%, and they have sent 107 relief pitchers to the hill for the season. Baltimore has had relievers step onto the mound in 6 save chances and they have walked away with 5 saves.

In 2,340 innings played, the Orioles have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 65.9% (29th in MLB). The Baltimore Orioles have gotten 26 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .983 (21st in the majors). The Orioles have accrued 267 assists, 18 errors and have accumulated 780 putouts during this campaign.

In his career, Gibson has surrendered 1,919 base hits while he has tallied 1,512 punch outs in 1,868 frames. Gibson (112-109 win-loss record in his career) has a 4.55 ERA and has surrendered 9.2 hits per nine innings. He has allowed 945 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.380 and a FIP of 4.5. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.29 and he has faced 8,020 batters so far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Baltimore (+132)

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