Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, 9/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Thursday, September 11, 2025

Location: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH

TV: CLEGuardians.TV

Odds/Point Spread: Kansas City (+125) Cleveland (-145)

The Cleveland Guardians (74-70) will play the Kansas City Royals (73-72) at Progressive Field on Thursday. The line on this contest has the Royals at +125 while the Guardians are priced at -145. The over/under is 8. The pitchers expected to start will be Stephen Kolek and Gavin Williams.

The Royals have hit 253 two-baggers as a team and have knocked 138 balls out of the park. Kansas City is slugging .390 and have been called out on strikes 979 times, while drawing a walk on 384 occasions. As a team, the Kansas City Royals are putting up 3.8 runs per contest, which ranks them 28th in baseball. They have tallied 543 runs batted in in addition to 1,176 base knocks for the season, and their average at the plate sits at .244. They have accumulated 553 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .306.

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The Royals have an earned run average of 3.67 for the year (4th in baseball), and they have rung up 1,141 hitters. Royals pitchers have allowed 146 home runs and 564 runs in total (3rd in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 430 opposing players and their FIP comes in at 3.95 as a squad on the year. Kansas City has surrendered 1,178 base knocks (8.2 per 9 innings) and also 525 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.65 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.25.

The Royals relievers have a save percentage of 70.5% and have come into the game in 139 save situations. The relievers have inherited 201 runners this year and 26.9% of those players ended up scoring. Royals relief pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on base 146 times and also have had 158 appearances in high leverage situations. The Royals have sent 487 relievers to the mound this season. The relievers have recorded 77 holds on the campaign (19th in the league). They have compiled 43 saves on the campaign and have missed out on 18 of 61 chances to save the game.

The Houston Astros have a tally of 3,864 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,274 assists and 57 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .989 which has them ranked 4th in professional baseball, and they have turned 114 double plays. The Royals have converted 70.6% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 11,592 innings on the diamond, which has them sitting 8th in professional baseball.

Kolek has pitched in 138 innings and has totaled 102 strikeouts in his career. Kolek (8-5 career record) sits with a FIP of 4.29 and he has gone up against 597 opposing batters during his time in the major leagues. His earned run average is 4.36 (67 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.344. He has given up 147 base knocks (9.6 hits per 9 innings) and has 39 free passes.

The Guardians hold a team SLG% of .370 and they are earning 3.92 runs per contest (27th in baseball). They have recorded 210 two-baggers, while walking 439 times and recording 564 runs. Cleveland is sitting with 147 HRs this year to go along with 544 RBIs. They have been rung up on 1,198 occasions (17th in baseball) and have earned 1,065 hits. The Cleveland Guardians have a team on-base percentage of .296 as well as a team batting average of .226 so far this season.

The Guardians hold a team WHIP of 1.304 and have a FIP of 4.12 as a staff so far this year. Their K/BB ratio comes in at 8.40 (1,189 strikeouts vs 490 walks). They come in at 13th in the league as a staff in total hits allowed with 1,178. They have yielded 155 dingers and they concede 4.24 runs per 9 innings (12th in MLB). The Cleveland pitching staff have conceded 602 runs on the campaign while holding a team ERA of 3.87 (550 earned runs yielded).

Cleveland has had relievers step onto the mound in 60 save opportunities and they have come away with 42 saves. They are ranked 4th in MLB holding a save percentage of 70.0%, and they have sent 470 bullpen pitchers to the mound this season. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 165 times in high leverage situations in addition to 133 occasions with runners on base. Cleveland bullpen pitchers have an inherited score rate of 33.3% out of their 186 inherited runners. Sitting with 157 save situations, the Guardians have 94 holds and also 18 blown saves.

The Cleveland Guardians have turned 111 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .983 (27th in baseball). The Guardians have recorded 1,190 assists, 88 errors and are sitting with 3,837 putouts over the course of the season. In their 11,511 innings played, the Guardians have a defensive efficiency of 69.5% (19th in baseball).

During his career, Williams has conceded 257 base knocks and he has 306 strikeouts in 308 innings. Williams (16-20 record in his career) has a 3.62 ERA while allowing 7.5 hits per nine innings. He has given up a total of 124 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.304 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.6. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.11 and he has faced 1,312 hitters so far in his pro baseball career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Cleveland (-145)

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