Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 9/12/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Friday, September 12, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Kansas City (+120) Philadelphia (-144)

The Philadelphia Phillies (86-60) will play the Kansas City Royals (74-72) at Citizens Bank Park on Friday. The moneyline on this contest has Kansas City at +120 and Philadelphia is priced at -144. The total is 8.5. The expected starting pitchers are Michael Lorenzen and Walker Buehler.

Kansas City is slugging .390 and have struck out 985 times, while drawing a walk on 385 occasions. They have recorded 547 runs batted in and 1,185 base knocks so far this season, and their team batting average comes in at .244. The Royals have recorded 255 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 138 balls out of the park. They have racked up 557 runs scored and hold an OBP of .305. As a team, the Kansas City Royals are earning 3.8 runs per contest, which has them at 28th in MLB.

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The Royals have a team ERA of 3.66 this season (4th in the league), and they have rung up 1,147 batters. Royals pitchers have yielded 147 home runs and 567 total runs (3rd in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 435 batters and their FIP comes in at 3.95 as a unit this season. Kansas City has given up 1,185 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) and also 528 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.64 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.25.

The Royals bullpen have earned a save percentage of 71.0% and have stepped onto the mound in 141 save situations. The relievers have inherited 202 base runners for the year with 27.2% of those runners ended up scoring. Royals relief pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 147 times in addition to having 160 appearances in high leverage situations. The Royals have dispatched 492 relievers to the mound this season. The bullpen are sitting with 78 holds this year (19th in the league). They have earned 44 saves on the year and have blown 18 out of their 62 chances to save the game.

The Royals have transformed 70.6% of balls hit into play into outs in their 11,673 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 9th in baseball. The Houston Astros have earned a total of 3,891 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 1,285 assists and 57 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .989 which has them ranked 4th in professional baseball, and have a total of 115 double plays.

Lorenzen (52-54 career record) holds a FIP of 4.01 while he has gone up against 4,140 hitters during his time in the major leagues. He has conceded 903 hits (8.3 hits per nine innings) and has 382 free passes. His earned run average is 4.08 (443 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.314. Lorenzen has pitched in 978 innings and has earned 809 K's during his career.

The Philadelphia Phillies hold an OBP of .330 in addition to a batting average of .260 for the season. They have struck out on 1,183 occasions (21st in baseball) and have recorded 1,292 base hits. Philadelphia has a total of 183 home runs for the year as well as 678 RBIs. The Phillies have a team SLG% of .428 and they score 4.82 runs per game (9th in the league). They have put up 241 two-baggers, while walking 478 times and putting up 703 runs.

The Phillies have a WHIP of 1.242 and have a FIP of 3.66 as a pitching staff this season. They are currently ranked 18th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 1,209. The Philadelphia pitching staff have allowed 581 runs on the campaign while having a team ERA of 3.78 (544 earned runs relinquished). Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 9.30 (1,333 strikeouts against 399 walks). They have given up 154 long balls and they concede 4.04 runs per 9 innings (5th in baseball).

Sitting with 140 save situations, the Phillies have 73 holds and also 23 blown saves. Philadelphia has called on relievers to enter the game in 64 save chances and they have converted 41 saves. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 160 times in high leverage situations in addition to 95 occasions with runners on base. Philadelphia relievers have an inherited score percentage of 32.9% out of 140 inherited base runners. They are ranked 11th in MLB with a save rate of 64.1%, and they have dispatched 456 relievers to the mound for the year.

The Philadelphia Phillies have turned 94 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .990 (3rd in professional baseball). The Phillies have recorded 1,255 assists, 54 errors and have accounted for 3,886 putouts during this campaign. In 11,658 innings played, the Phillies are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 68.9% (23rd in pro baseball).

During his career, Buehler has allowed 708 base hits while earning 838 K's in 825 innings. Buehler (54-29 career win-loss mark) has earned a 3.57 earned run average while giving up 7.7 hits per nine innings. He has conceded 327 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.155 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.5. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.42 and he has faced 3,410 opposing hitters so far in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Kansas City (+120)

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