Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 10/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: TBS

Odds/Point Spread: Los Angeles (+105) Philadelphia (-125)

The Philadelphia Phillies (96-66) will play the Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69) at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday in Game 1 of the NLDS. The line on this matchup has the Dodgers at +105 and the Phillies are coming in at -125. The total is set at 7. The expected starting pitchers are Shohei Ohtani and Cristopher Sanchez.

The Dodgers have accounted for 257 doubles as a unit and have knocked 244 baseballs out of the stadium. Los Angeles has a slugging rate of .441 and have been called out on strikes 1,353 times, while drawing a walk on 580 occasions. As a squad, the Los Angeles Dodgers are knocking in 5.1 runs per contest, which has them at 2nd in MLB. They have accrued 791 runs batted in as well as 1,384 base knocks for the season, and their team batting average sits at .253. They have tallied 825 runs and have an OBP of .327.

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The Dodgers hold a team ERA of 3.95 so far this year (17th in the league), and the staff has struck out 1,505 hitters. Dodgers pitchers have conceded 175 home runs in addition to 683 runs (12th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 563 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 3.93 as a team so far this season. Los Angeles has given up 1,250 hits (7.8 per 9 innings) and also 633 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.67 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.26.

Dodgers pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 149 times as well as having 186 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have a total of 128 holds on the campaign (1st in baseball). The Dodgers relievers have recorded a save rate of 63.0% and have stepped onto the mound in 206 save situations. They have 46 saves on the season and have not converted 27 of their 73 save chances. The relief pitchers have inherited 230 runners on the year and 26.1% of those runners crossed home plate. The Dodgers have sent 581 relievers to the mound on the campaign.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4,323 putouts this year, as well as 1,346 assists and 68 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .988 which ranks 6th in the majors, and have accumulated 102 double plays. The Dodgers have turned 70.4% of baseballs in play into outs in their 12,969 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 11th in baseball.

Ohtani has pitched in 528 frames and has accounted for 670 strikeouts thus far in his career. His ERA is 3.00 (176 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.079. He has allowed 388 base hits (6.6 hits per 9 innings) with 182 free passes. Ohtani (39-20 win-loss mark in his career) has a FIP of 2.95 while he has gone up against 2,139 batters in the majors.

Philadelphia has recorded 212 long balls so far this season to go along with 753 RBIs. They have tallied 268 doubles, while taking a walk 528 times and earning 778 runs. The Philadelphia Phillies hold an OBP of .328 and a team batting average of .258 over the course of the season. The Phillies have a team slugging percentage of .431 and they score 4.80 runs per contest (8th in the league). They have struck out on 1,337 instances (19th in baseball) and have earned a total of 1,426 base hits.

The Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.234 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.71 as a staff over the course of the season. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 9.20 (1,471 strikeouts against 435 bases on balls). They rank 19th in MLB as a staff in total hits given up with 1,342. They have conceded 177 dingers and they surrender 4.05 runs per 9 innings (5th in the league). The Philadelphia pitching staff have given up 648 runs this season while holding an ERA of 3.79 (607 earned runs yielded).

Sitting with 160 save situations, the Phillies have accrued 83 holds in addition to 27 blown saves. Philadelphia has called on relievers to enter the game in 74 save opportunities and they have tallied 47 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 179 times in high leverage situations in addition to 106 occasions with runners on. Philadelphia relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 31.8% of 151 inherited runners. They are currently ranked 17th in the league holding a save rate of 63.5%, and they have sent 506 relievers to the hill this year.

In 12,963 innings played, the Phillies are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 69.1% (21st in MLB). The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten 105 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .989 (5th in professional baseball). The Phillies have accrued 1,383 assists, 62 errors and have a tally of 4,321 putouts so far this season.

In his pro baseball career, Sanchez has given up 495 base hits and he has 509 K's in 535 frames. Sanchez (30-21 career record) has a 3.25 ERA while surrendering 8.3 hits per nine innings. He has given up 193 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.164 and a FIP of 3.2. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.98 and he has gone up against 2,193 opposing batters in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Los Angeles (+105)

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