Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 8/16/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Saturday, August 16, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+102) Boston (-122)

The Miami Marlins (58-62) are hitting the road to Fenway Park on Saturday where they will take on the Boston Red Sox (66-56). The moneyline on this game has the Marlins at +102 while the Red Sox are priced at -122. The over/under is set at 8. The pitchers taking the mound will be Cal Quantrill and Brayan Bello.

Miami has a slugging rate of .397 and have struck out 946 times, while being walked on 366 occasions. They have tallied 501 runs batted in in addition to 1,033 hits this season, and their batting average is sitting at .252. The Marlins have hit 201 two-baggers as a team and have hit 117 baseballs out of the stadium. They have a total of 521 runs scored while having a team OBP of .316. As a unit, the Miami Marlins are recording 4.3 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 17th in the league.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.56 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.30. Marlins pitchers have conceded 134 home runs and 573 total runs (24th in MLB). Miami has surrendered 1,015 base hits (8.6 per 9 innings) and 534 earned runs. The Marlins have a team earned run average of 4.52 for the year (24th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 947 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 370 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 4.16 as a team for the year.

Marlins bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with players on base 89 times in addition to having 125 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have 66 holds this year (18th in baseball). The Marlins relief pitchers have a save percentage of 60.4% and have come into the game in 115 save situations. They have accumulated 29 saves this season and have blown 19 out of their 48 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 129 base runners on the year and 31.0% of those runners ended up crossing the plate. The Marlins have dispatched 371 relievers to the hill this year.

The Marlins have converted 69.7% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 9,579 innings, which has them sitting 16th in pro baseball. The Los Angeles Dodgers have a tally of 3,193 putouts this season, as well as 1,030 assists and 59 errors. Their fielding rate is at .986 which puts them in 17th in baseball, and have a total of 84 double plays.

Quantrill (47-43 career mark) holds a FIP of 4.14 while he has faced 3,513 hitters during his time in the majors. He has given up 825 base hits (9.0 hits per nine innings) and has had 263 walks. His ERA is 4.20 (385 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.319. Quantrill has taken the hill for 825 innings and has accounted for 617 strikeouts so far in his career.

Boston has 149 long balls for the season as well as 588 runs batted in. They have notched 250 two-baggers, while walking 397 times as well as putting up 614 runs. The Boston Red Sox have tallied a team on-base percentage of .325 in addition to a batting average of .254 on the campaign. The Red Sox have a SLG% of .430 and they have an average of 5.03 runs per game (5th in MLB). They have been rung up on 1,087 occasions (3rd in the league) and have totaled 1,065 hits.

The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.302 with a FIP of 4.02 as a staff on the campaign. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.20 (1,000 strikeouts against 407 walks). They come in at 21st in MLB as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,013. They have given up 123 dingers and they surrender 4.30 runs per 9 innings (15th in baseball). The Boston pitching staff have given up 521 runs for the year while holding an ERA of 3.75 (454 earned runs relinquished).

With 120 save situations, the Red Sox have tallied 64 holds in addition to 22 blown saves. Boston has had bullpen pitchers take the mound in 54 save opportunities and they have recorded 32 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 146 times in high leverage situations and on 121 occasions with runners on. Boston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 30.7% out of their 163 inherited base runners. They sit at 22nd in baseball holding a save rate of 59.3%, and they have dispatched 397 relievers to the mound on the campaign.

In their 9,819 innings played, the Red Sox have a defensive efficiency of 68.9% (24th in the majors). The Boston Red Sox have gotten 101 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .979 (30th in MLB). The Red Sox have 1,117 assists, 96 errors and have a total of 3,273 putouts so far this year.

So far in his MLB career, Bello has allowed 509 hits while he has tallied 435 K's in 497 innings pitched. Bello (36-33 career mark) is the owner of a 4.14 earned run average while giving up 9.2 hits per nine innings. He has surrendered 229 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.387 and having a FIP of 4.1. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.40 and he has gone up against 2,152 opposing hitters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Miami (+102)

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