Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 9/25/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Thursday, September 25, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Miami (+162) Philadelphia (-196)

The Philadelphia Phillies (92-65) will try to defeat the Miami Marlins (77-80) at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday. The odds on this game have the Marlins at +162 while the Phillies are opening at -196. The over/under has been set at 8.5. The starting pitchers will be Janson Junk and Taijuan Walker.

The Marlins have accounted for 268 doubles as a team and have knocked 153 baseballs out of the stadium. Miami has a slugging % of .397 and have been called out on strikes 1,214 times, while taking a walk on 470 occasions. As a unit, the Miami Marlins are earning 4.5 runs per contest, which has them sitting at 15th in MLB. They have amassed 666 runs batted in in addition to 1,358 hits over the course of the season, and their team batting average sits at .252. They have earned 698 runs and hold an on-base percentage of .315.

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They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.56 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.30. Marlins pitchers have given up 189 home runs in addition to 779 runs (26th in baseball). Miami has conceded 1,338 base knocks (8.6 per 9 innings) as well as 719 earned runs. The Marlins hold a team ERA of 4.62 for the year (25th in baseball), and they have struck out 1,243 batters. They have walked 486 hitters and their FIP is 4.32 as a team on the season.

The Marlins bullpen have accumulated a save rate of 63.9% and have entered the game in 148 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 178 runners on the year and 30.9% of those players ended up scoring. Marlins relief pitchers have gone to the mound with runners on base 124 times in addition to having 168 appearances in high leverage situations. The Marlins have sent 498 relievers to the mound for the season. The bullpen have accumulated 85 holds on the year (17th in the league). They have recorded 39 saves this season and have blown 22 of their 61 save opportunities.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have accounted for 4,201 putouts so far this season, as well as 1,346 assists and 82 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .985 which puts them in 17th in the majors, and have a total of 103 double plays. The Marlins have turned 70.0% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,603 innings on the diamond, ranking them 15th in MLB.

Junk (7-6 career record) holds a FIP of 4.89 while he has faced 617 opposing batters during his time in the major leagues. He has allowed 167 hits (10.4 hits per nine innings) with 24 walks. His ERA is 4.96 (80 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.316. Junk has taken the mound for 145 innings and has earned 107 strikeouts so far in his career.

The Philadelphia Phillies have an on-base percentage of .330 as well as a team batting average of .260 for the season. They have struck out on 1,280 instances (20th in the league) and are sitting with 1,390 base hits. Philadelphia is sitting with 202 HRs on the season and 736 RBIs. The Phillies have a team SLG% of .431 and they earn 4.85 runs per outing (7th in MLB). They have put up 265 doubles, while taking a walk 519 times as well as racking up 761 runs.

The Phillies hold a team WHIP of 1.245 and have a FIP of 3.75 as a staff on the year. Their K/BB ratio sits at 9.10 (1,417 strikeouts vs 424 bases on balls). They are sitting at 20th in the league as a staff in total hits surrendered with 1,312. They have conceded 173 homers and they surrender 4.13 runs per 9 innings (8th in baseball). The Philadelphia pitching staff have surrendered 640 runs on the season and come in with a team ERA of 3.87 (600 earned runs conceded).

Philadelphia has called on relievers to enter the game in 72 save opportunities and they have come away with 45 saves. They are currently ranked 18th in the league with a save percentage of 62.5%, and they have dispatched 491 relief pitchers onto the field over the course of the season. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 174 times in high leverage situations and on 103 occasions with base runners. Philadelphia relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 32.4% of 148 inherited runners. Sitting with 156 save situations, the Phillies have 81 holds and 27 blown saves.

In 12,549 innings on the diamond, the Phillies have earned a defensive efficiency of 69.0% (22nd in MLB). The Philadelphia Phillies have turned 100 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .989 (4th in professional baseball). The Phillies have accrued 1,346 assists, 60 errors and have earned 4,183 putouts for the season.

Walker (77-71 record in his career) has a 4.20 ERA while conceding 8.5 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.52 and he has faced 5,408 batters during his pro baseball career. He has allowed 594 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.286 and having a FIP of 4.1. In his MLB career, Walker has allowed 1,209 base knocks while accumulating 1,083 strikeouts in 1,274 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Miami (+162)

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