Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, 9/27/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025

Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA

TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia

Odds/Point Spread: Minnesota (+125) Philadelphia (-145)

Citizens Bank Park is where the Philadelphia Phillies (93-65) will play the Minnesota Twins (68-90) on Saturday. The moneyline on this matchup has the Twins at +125 and the Phillies open at -145. The over/under is set at 8.5. The starting pitchers will be Mick Abel and Aaron Nola.

The Twins have recorded 244 doubles as a team and have knocked 185 baseballs out of the stadium. Minnesota has a slugging % of .397 and have struck out 1,325 times, while being walked on 488 occasions. As a team, the Minnesota Twins are putting up 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in baseball. They have 632 runs batted in as well as 1,264 base knocks on the year, while their team batting average comes in at .239. They have accumulated 667 runs while holding a team OBP of .311.

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The Twins have an ERA of 4.65 on the campaign (25th in the league), and the staff has rung up 1,327 batters. Twins pitchers have surrendered 192 long balls and 768 total runs (25th in the league). They have walked 454 batters and their FIP sits at 4.15 as a squad for the season. Minnesota has surrendered 1,391 base knocks (9.0 per 9 innings) as well as 718 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.92 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.33.

The Twins have sent 530 relievers to the hill over the course of the season. The relievers have inherited 165 base runners over the course of the season with 35.8% of those players earned a run for their team. They have compiled 28 saves on the campaign and have blown 24 of 52 chances to save the game. The Twins relievers have a save rate of 53.8% and have stepped onto the mound in 146 save situations. The relief pitchers have 92 holds on the year (10th in MLB). Twins bullpen pitchers have come into the game with runners on 115 times in addition to having 168 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Milwaukee Brewers have earned a total of 4,173 putouts thus far, in addition to 1,184 assists and 83 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .985 which ranks 18th in professional baseball, and have accumulated 95 double plays. The Twins have converted 68.3% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,519 innings on the field, which ranks them 28th in professional baseball.

Abel has taken the hill for 33 innings and has 30 K's so far in his MLB career. Abel (2-4 career mark) holds a FIP of 7.25 and he has faced 153 batters in the major leagues. His ERA is 7.36 (27 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.667. He has surrendered 40 base hits (10.9 hits per 9 innings) and has had 15 walks.

The Philadelphia Phillies have tallied an OBP of .330 as well as a batting average of .260 this season. They have struck out on 1,291 occasions (19th in MLB) and have 1,402 hits. Philadelphia has 210 home runs this year to go along with 747 runs batted in. The Phillies have a team slugging % of .435 and they tally 4.89 runs per contest (6th in baseball). They have 267 doubles, while taking a walk 522 times as well as racking up 772 runs.

The Philadelphia pitching staff have surrendered 641 runs on the campaign and come in with a team ERA of 3.85 (600 earned runs given up). They have surrendered 173 dingers and they allow 4.11 runs per 9 innings (8th in MLB). The Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.241 with a FIP of 3.72 as a pitching staff this season. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 9.20 (1,427 strikeouts vs 424 free passes). They are sitting at 19th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 1,317.

Philadelphia has had relief pitchers step onto the mound in 72 save chances and they have tallied 45 saves. They sit at 18th in baseball holding a save percentage of 62.5%, and they have dispatched 493 bullpen pitchers to the mound on the year. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill 174 times in high leverage situations and also on 103 occasions with base runners. Philadelphia relievers hold an inherited score rate of 32.4% out of their 148 inherited base runners. Sitting with 156 save situations, the Phillies have earned 81 holds and also 27 blown saves.

The Philadelphia Phillies have turned 101 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .989 (5th in baseball). The Phillies have accrued 1,354 assists, 62 errors and have a total of 4,210 putouts for the year. Out of their 12,630 innings played, the Phillies have earned a efficiency on defense of 69.0% (22nd in baseball).

During his pro baseball career, Nola has allowed 1,520 base hits while he has totaled 1,867 K's in 1,707 frames. He has conceded a total of 729 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.153 and having a FIP of 3.8. His strikeout to walk ratio is 4.16 and he has gone up against 7,013 opposing batters so far in his MLB career. Nola (108-89 career mark) has a 3.84 ERA and has given up 8.0 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Minnesota (+125)

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